Ethanal Market

The article discusses the projected trends in the global ethanal (acetaldehyde) market, forecasting an upward consumption trend with a CAGR of +1.4% in volume and +6.0% in value from 2022 to 2030. China leads in both consumption and production, with notable growth in Nigeria's market size. Consumption, production, imports, and exports patterns are analyzed, with insights into key countries' market shares and growth rates. The average prices of ethanal imports and exports also highlighted, showing fluctuating trends across different countries over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for ethanal (acetaldehyde) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $12.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Ethanal (Acetaldehyde)

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was decline in consumption of ethanal (acetaldehyde), when its volume decreased by -3.2% to 1.1M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 1.2M tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

The global ethanal market revenue declined to $7.8B in 2022, falling by -6.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $8.4B, and then reduced in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (259K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of ethanal consumption, comprising approx. 23% of total volume. Moreover, ethanal consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (104K tons), twofold. The United States (68K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.9% share.

In China, ethanal consumption increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+2.8% per year) and the United States (-0.5% per year).

In value terms, Japan ($1.4B), Indonesia ($1.1B) and Turkey ($872M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 43% share of the global market. Iran, Nigeria, China, India, Brazil, the United States, Pakistan, Russia, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Vietnam lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

Among the main consuming countries, Nigeria, with a CAGR of +8.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of ethanal per capita consumption in 2022 were Turkey (364 kg per 1000 persons), Pakistan (275 kg per 1000 persons) and Nigeria (269 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Japan (with a CAGR of +3.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Ethanal (Acetaldehyde)

In 2022, production of ethanal (acetaldehyde) decreased by -3.3% to 1.1M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 9.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 1.2M tons in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, ethanal production shrank to $8.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $9.4B, and then declined in the following year.

Production By Country

China (259K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of ethanal production, comprising approx. 23% of total volume. Moreover, ethanal production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (105K tons), twofold. The United States (70K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.2% share.

In China, ethanal production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+2.8% per year) and the United States (-0.3% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Ethanal (Acetaldehyde)

In 2022, approx. 53K tons of ethanal (acetaldehyde) were imported worldwide; with a decrease of -3.9% on the year before. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 55K tons, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, ethanal imports soared to $88M in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +57.1% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when imports increased by 50% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, France (15K tons), distantly followed by Spain (9.6K tons), Norway (9.3K tons), Germany (9.2K tons) and Switzerland (3.4K tons) represented the major importers of ethanal (acetaldehyde), together achieving 88% of total imports. The Philippines (1.9K tons) and Austria (1.6K tons) took a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +68.6%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ethanal importing markets worldwide were France ($22M), Germany ($15M) and Norway ($15M), with a combined 59% share of global imports. Spain, Switzerland, Austria and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the Philippines, with a CAGR of +36.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average ethanal import price stood at $1,672 per ton in 2022, surging by 31% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.1%. Global import price peaked at $1,787 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($2,231 per ton), while the Philippines ($286 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Norway (+5.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Ethanal (Acetaldehyde)

In 2022, global exports of ethanal (acetaldehyde) fell to 35K tons, shrinking by -8.3% compared with 2021 figures. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a perceptible decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 47%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 74K tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ethanal exports reached $54M in 2022. In general, exports saw a perceptible downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 46%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $76M. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Germany dominates exports structure, reaching 28K tons, which was near 79% of total exports in 2022. Taiwan (Chinese) (2.8K tons) held a 7.8% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the United States (5.9%). Japan (660 tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Germany increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Japan (+97.7%), Taiwan (Chinese) (+40.8%) and the United States (+13.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Japan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +97.7% from 2012-2022. Germany (+29 p.p.), Taiwan (Chinese) (+7.6 p.p.), the United States (+4.6 p.p.) and Japan (+1.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($42M) remains the largest ethanal supplier worldwide, comprising 78% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($3.3M), with a 6.1% share of global exports. It was followed by Taiwan (Chinese), with a 2.9% share.

In Germany, ethanal exports increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the United States (+12.2% per year) and Taiwan (Chinese) (+27.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average ethanal export price stood at $1,528 per ton in 2022, surging by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The global export price peaked at $1,540 per ton in 2012; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1,594 per ton), while Taiwan (Chinese) ($576 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+0.2%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform