Coal Market

The article discusses the forecasted trends in the global coal market from 2022 to 2030. It highlights the expected increase in consumption and production, led by China. The market is projected to reach 9,615M tons in volume and $1,726.6B in value by 2030. The article also provides insights into the largest consumers, producers, importers, and exporters of coal, along with the trends in different types of coal and prices over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for coal worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 9,615M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1,726.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Coal

After five years of growth, consumption of coal decreased by -1.6% to 8,216M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the consumption volume increased by 3.6%. Global consumption peaked at 8,350M tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

The global coal market size shrank to $1,180.5B in 2022, declining by -11.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $1,340.4B, and then reduced in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of coal consumption was China (4,196M tons), comprising approx. 51% of total volume. Moreover, coal consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (981M tons), fourfold. The United States (548M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+3.1% per year) and the United States (-4.8% per year).

In value terms, China ($630B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($83.4B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+5.0% per year) and the United States (-4.8% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of coal per capita consumption in 2022 were Australia (5 ton per person), Poland (3.3 ton per person) and South Africa (3.1 ton per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Indonesia (with a CAGR of +7.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Consumption By Type

Coal other than lignite (7,380M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 90% of total volume. Moreover, coal other than lignite exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, lignite (836M tons), ninefold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of coal other than lignite consumption was relatively modest.

In value terms, coal other than lignite ($996.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by lignite ($184.4B).

For coal other than lignite, market remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022.

Production

World Production of Coal

In 2022, global coal production dropped modestly to 8,298M tons, standing approx. at the year before. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 3.3%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 8,372M tons in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

In value terms, coal production fell to $1,270B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 43% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $1,470.8B in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of coal production was China (3,907M tons), accounting for 47% of total volume. Moreover, coal production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Indonesia (753M tons), fivefold. India (748M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+4.5% per year) and India (+2.2% per year).

Production By Type

Coal other than lignite (7,487M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, comprising approx. 90% of total volume. Moreover, coal other than lignite exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, lignite (811M tons), ninefold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the volume of coal other than lignite production was relatively modest.

In value terms, coal other than lignite ($981.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by lignite ($288.8B).

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of coal other than lignite production was relatively modest.

Imports

World Imports of Coal

In 2022, the amount of coal imported worldwide reduced slightly to 1,263M tons, with a decrease of -4.1% compared with the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 16%. Global imports peaked at 1,317M tons in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

In value terms, coal imports soared to $287.3B in 2022. Overall, imports, however, enjoyed a strong expansion. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of coal imports in 2022 were China (293M tons), India (234M tons) and Japan (183M tons), together resulting at 56% of total import. South Korea (52M tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (46M tons), Germany (43M tons), Turkey (37M tons), Malaysia (35M tons), the Philippines (32M tons), Vietnam (31M tons), the Netherlands (22M tons), Thailand (21M tons) and Poland (21M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +33.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest coal importing markets worldwide were Japan ($59.3B), India ($49B) and China ($42.6B), with a combined 53% share of global imports. Taiwan (Chinese), Germany, South Korea, Turkey, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Poland and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

Vietnam, with a CAGR of +41.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2022, coal other than lignite (1,122M tons) was the largest type of coal, making up 89% of total imports. It was distantly followed by lignite (141M tons), achieving an 11% share of total imports.

Coal other than lignite experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports. At the same time, lignite (+8.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, lignite emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +8.7% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of lignite increased by +5.9 percentage points.

In value terms, coal other than lignite ($274.2B) constitutes the largest type of coal imported worldwide, comprising 95% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by lignite ($13.1B), with a 4.6% share of global imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of coal other than lignite imports stood at +6.6%.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average coal import price amounted to $227 per ton, growing by 80% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a prominent increase. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was coal other than lignite ($244 per ton), while the price for lignite stood at $93 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by coal other than lignite (+6.2%).

Import Prices By Country

The average coal import price stood at $227 per ton in 2022, growing by 80% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a buoyant increase. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Taiwan (Chinese) ($353 per ton), while Thailand ($125 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Taiwan (Chinese) (+11.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Coal

In 2022, overseas shipments of coal increased by 0.5% to 1,346M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 1,412M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, coal exports skyrocketed to $271.5B in 2022. Overall, exports enjoyed a resilient increase. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Indonesia (467M tons) and Australia (339M tons) represented the major exporters of coalaround the world, together recording near 60% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Russia (193M tons), the United States (78M tons) and South Africa (72M tons), together achieving a 25% share of total exports. The following exporters - Colombia (57M tons) and Canada (36M tons) - together made up 6.9% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +5.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest coal supplying countries worldwide were Australia ($98.2B), Indonesia ($54.6B) and Russia ($43.8B), with a combined 72% share of global exports.

Russia, with a CAGR of +11.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Coal other than lignite dominates exports structure, amounting to 1,230M tons, which was near 91% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by lignite (116M tons), creating an 8.6% share of total exports.

Coal other than lignite experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports. At the same time, lignite (+10.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, lignite emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +10.8% from 2012-2022. While the share of lignite (+5.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of coal other than lignite (-5.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, coal other than lignite ($262.7B) remains the largest type of coal supplied worldwide, comprising 97% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by lignite ($8.8B), with a 3.2% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of coal other than lignite exports totaled +7.1%.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average coal export price amounted to $202 per ton, picking up by 90% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a buoyant increase. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was coal other than lignite ($214 per ton), while the average price for exports of lignite totaled $76 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by coal other than lignite (+6.6%).

Export Prices By Country

The average coal export price stood at $202 per ton in 2022, growing by 90% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a strong expansion. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($297 per ton), while Indonesia ($117 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+8.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform