Carbon Market

Driven by increasing demand for carbon worldwide, the market is projected to grow over the next eight years. Market performance is forecasted to show an upward consumption trend with a CAGR of +2.4% in volume and +4.5% in value from 2022-2030. China is the largest consumer and producer, with Poland showing the highest growth rates. Global import and export volumes are also increasing steadily, with Belgium and Vietnam showing notable growth in exports and imports. Prices are on the rise, with Belgium having the highest export price in 2022.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for carbon (carbon blacks and other forms of carbon) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 19M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $32.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Carbon (Carbon Blacks And Other Forms Of Carbon)

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in consumption of carbon (carbon blacks and other forms of carbon), when its volume decreased by -3.5% to 16M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 17M tons in 2021, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

The global carbon market size fell slightly to $23.1B in 2022, waning by -3.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $24B in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (3.4M tons) remains the largest carbon consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 21% of total volume. Moreover, carbon consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (1.3M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (1.3M tons), with a 7.9% share.

In China, carbon consumption increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+1.6% per year) and the United States (+1.5% per year).

In value terms, the largest carbon markets worldwide were China ($3.7B), Japan ($2.7B) and the United States ($2.6B), together accounting for 39% of the global market. India, Turkey, Germany, Mexico, Indonesia, the UK, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Poland, South Korea and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

Among the main consuming countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +9.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of carbon per capita consumption in 2022 were Poland (7.3 kg per person), Japan (6.4 kg per person) and Germany (6.1 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +7.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Carbon (Carbon Blacks And Other Forms Of Carbon)

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in production of carbon (carbon blacks and other forms of carbon), when its volume decreased by -2.8% to 16M tons. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume at 16M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, carbon production shrank to $21.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 25%. Global production peaked at $23.3B in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of carbon production was China (4.1M tons), accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, carbon production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (1.4M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United States (1.2M tons), with a 7.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +2.6%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+1.0% per year) and the United States (+1.3% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Carbon (Carbon Blacks And Other Forms Of Carbon)

In 2022, overseas purchases of carbon (carbon blacks and other forms of carbon) increased by 1.2% to 4.4M tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 20%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, carbon imports surged to $7.8B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a moderate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +90.3% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 47% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of carbon imports in 2022 were Poland (479K tons), Thailand (337K tons), Turkey (293K tons), Germany (278K tons), Vietnam (271K tons), Indonesia (233K tons), the United States (212K tons) and Spain (197K tons), together resulting at 53% of total import. The following importers - Japan (130K tons), Belgium (125K tons), the Czech Republic (121K tons), Hungary (120K tons) and India (119K tons) - each recorded a 14% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +15.5%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest carbon importing markets worldwide were Poland ($748M), Thailand ($566M) and Germany ($492M), together comprising 23% of global imports. Turkey, the United States, Vietnam, Indonesia, Spain, Japan, Belgium, Hungary, India and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Vietnam, with a CAGR of +16.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average carbon import price stood at $1,787 per ton in 2022, jumping by 28% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a mild expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, carbon import price increased by +56.3% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($2,117 per ton), while Spain ($1,411 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hungary (+3.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Carbon (Carbon Blacks And Other Forms Of Carbon)

In 2022, overseas shipments of carbon (carbon blacks and other forms of carbon) increased by 4.5% to 4.3M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, carbon exports skyrocketed to $7.5B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +87.1% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 45%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (810K tons) and Russia (761K tons) were the largest exporters of carbon (carbon blacks and other forms of carbon)in the world, together achieving 37% of total exports. Poland (290K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by South Korea (268K tons), India (213K tons), Canada (209K tons) and Germany (196K tons). All these countries together held approx. 28% share of total exports. Italy (170K tons), the United States (161K tons), Hungary (160K tons), the Czech Republic (112K tons), Belgium (109K tons) and Thailand (108K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Belgium (with a CAGR of +9.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($1.3B), Russia ($1B) and Germany ($526M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 38% of global exports. Poland, the United States, South Korea, Belgium, India, Italy, Hungary, Canada, the Czech Republic and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 44%.

Among the main exporting countries, Belgium, with a CAGR of +17.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average carbon export price stood at $1,762 per ton in 2022, rising by 23% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a slight increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, carbon export price increased by +57.6% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 28% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($3,551 per ton), while Canada ($1,306 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+6.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform