Asia's Wine and Grape Must Market Poised for Steady Growth With a 1.6% CAGR in Value Through 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: Asia - Wine And Grape Must - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

This analysis forecasts the Asia wine and grape must market to reach 25 billion litres (CAGR +1.1%) and $134 billion (CAGR +1.6%) by 2035, based on 2024 figures. India is the largest consumer and producer by volume, while China and India lead in market value. Uzbekistan recorded the highest value growth rate. Consumption is dominated by 'wine of fresh grapes,' and per capita consumption is highest in Israel. Despite a contraction in import volumes and values, exports are expanding, with Georgia and Israel as key suppliers. The region remains a net consumer, with production closely matching domestic consumption.

Key Findings

• Asia's market is forecast to grow to 25B litres and $134B by 2035 with CAGRs of +1.1% and +1.6%, respectively
• India is the largest consumer and producer by volume, accounting for 38% of total consumption
• Uzbekistan's market value grew at the fastest CAGR of +10.1% among major countries from 2013-2024
• Imports have declined significantly, falling 12.1% in volume in 2024, while exports increased by 9.1%
• 'Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine)' constitutes nearly 70% of both regional consumption and production

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for wine and grape must in Asia, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 25B litres by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $134B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Asia's Consumption of Wine And Grape Must

In 2024, approx. 22B litres of wine and grape must were consumed in Asia; remaining constant against 2023 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the consumption volume increased by 4.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs at 22B litres in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The revenue of the wine and grape must market in Asia totaled $112.8B in 2024, picking up by 5.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the market reached the maximum level in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

India (8.4B litres) constituted the country with the largest volume of wine and grape must consumption, comprising approx. 38% of total volume. Moreover, wine and grape must consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Pakistan (3.1B litres), threefold. China (3.1B litres) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 14% share.

In India, wine and grape must consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Pakistan (+1.3% per year) and China (+0.1% per year).

In value terms, India ($43.4B), China ($25.3B) and Thailand ($8.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together accounting for 68% of the total market. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Israel lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 12%.

Uzbekistan, with a CAGR of +10.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of wine and grape must per capita consumption in 2024 were Israel (40 litres per person), Saudi Arabia (34 litres per person) and Thailand (18 litres per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of +4.0%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Consumption By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (15B litres) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 69% of total volume. Moreover, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, grape must (5.2B litres), threefold.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) consumption totaled +1.2%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: grape must (+0.6% per year) and sparkling wine (+1.1% per year).

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($65.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by grape must ($32.9B).

For wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine), market increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the period from 2013-2024. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: grape must (+1.1% per year) and sparkling wine (-0.3% per year).

Production

Asia's Production of Wine And Grape Must

In 2024, the amount of wine and grape must produced in Asia expanded modestly to 21B litres, increasing by 1.6% on the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum volume at 21B litres in 2022; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

In value terms, wine and grape must production skyrocketed to $116B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The level of production peaked at $137B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

India (8.4B litres) remains the largest wine and grape must producing country in Asia, comprising approx. 39% of total volume. Moreover, wine and grape must production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Pakistan (3.1B litres), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by China (2.8B litres), with a 13% share.

In India, wine and grape must production expanded at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Pakistan (+1.3% per year) and China (+0.4% per year).

Production By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (15B litres) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, accounting for 68% of total volume. Moreover, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, grape must (5.2B litres), threefold.

For wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine), production expanded at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2013-2024. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: grape must (+0.6% per year) and sparkling wine (+1.6% per year).

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($66.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by grape must ($32.8B).

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) production amounted to +5.3%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: grape must (+1.1% per year) and sparkling wine (-0.6% per year).

Imports

Asia's Imports of Wine And Grape Must

For the third consecutive year, Asia recorded decline in supplies from abroad of wine and grape must, which decreased by -12.1% to 869M litres in 2024. Overall, imports recorded a perceptible contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 17%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at 1.4B litres in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wine and grape must imports declined remarkably to $5.9B in 2024. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 22%. The level of import peaked at $8B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

China (283M litres) and Japan (240M litres) represented roughly 60% of total imports in 2024. Singapore (99M litres) took an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by South Korea (6%). Hong Kong SAR (30M litres), Thailand (19M litres), the United Arab Emirates (19M litres), Israel (17M litres) and Malaysia (16M litres) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Israel (with a CAGR of +10.0%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wine and grape must importing markets in Asia were Japan ($1.6B), China ($1.6B) and Hong Kong SAR ($829M), with a combined 68% share of total imports. Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Israel, with a CAGR of +10.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2024, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (759M litres) represented the main type of wine and grape must, creating 87% of total imports. It was distantly followed by sparkling wine (107M litres), generating a 12% share of total imports.

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of -2.1% from 2013 to 2024. sparkling wine (-4.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (+4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2013-2024, the share of sparkling wine (-3.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($4.5B) constitutes the largest type of wine and grape must imported in Asia, comprising 76% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by sparkling wine ($1.4B), with a 24% share of total imports.

For wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine), imports remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: sparkling wine (+2.9% per year) and grape must (-14.7% per year).

Import Prices By Type

The import price in Asia stood at $6.8 per litre in 2024, waning by -9% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when the import price increased by 16% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $7.5 per litre, and then fell in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($13 per litre), while the price for grape must ($3.3 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by sparkling wine (+7.8%), while the other products experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Import Prices By Country

The import price in Asia stood at $6.8 per litre in 2024, declining by -9% against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 an increase of 16%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $7.5 per litre, and then contracted in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Hong Kong SAR ($28 per litre), while Israel ($4.6 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand (+6.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Asia's Exports of Wine And Grape Must

In 2024, exports of wine and grape must in Asia expanded rapidly to 218M litres, growing by 9.1% compared with the previous year. Total exports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +45.4% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 32% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, wine and grape must exports reduced to $876M in 2024. In general, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 46%. The level of export peaked at $2B in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

Georgia (95M litres) and Israel (68M litres) prevails in exports structure, together constituting 75% of total exports. Thailand (8.8M litres), Uzbekistan (8.6M litres), Armenia (7.6M litres), Hong Kong SAR (6.9M litres) and Turkey (6.6M litres) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Israel (with a CAGR of +12.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wine and grape must supplying countries in Asia were Georgia ($276M), Hong Kong SAR ($245M) and Israel ($67M), together comprising 67% of total exports. Thailand, Turkey, Armenia and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 12%.

Among the main exporting countries, Armenia, with a CAGR of +13.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) prevails in exports structure, recording 207M litres, which was near 95% of total exports in 2024. Sparkling wine (9.8M litres) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +5.9% from 2013 to 2024. sparkling wine (-2.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (+5.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while sparkling wine saw its share reduced by -6.2% from 2013 to 2024, respectively.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($791M) remains the largest type of wine and grape must supplied in Asia, comprising 90% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by sparkling wine ($83M), with a 9.5% share of total exports.

For wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine), exports increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2013-2024. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: sparkling wine (-12.7% per year) and grape must (-1.8% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2024, the export price in Asia amounted to $4 per litre, falling by -20.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a drastic downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the export price increased by 49%. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs at $13 per litre in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($8.5 per litre), while the average price for exports of grape must ($634 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by wine of fresh grapes (-3.1%), while the other products experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in Asia amounted to $4 per litre, waning by -20.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a abrupt contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the export price increased by 49% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the peak figure at $13 per litre in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Hong Kong SAR ($36 per litre), while Uzbekistan ($782 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hong Kong SAR (+10.5%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.