Global Wheat Bran Market: Rising Demand to Drive Market Growth with a Forecasted Volume of 132M Tons and Value of $49.7B by 2030

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The market for wheat bran is expected to experience steady growth, with a forecasted increase in market volume to 132M tons and market value to $49.7B by the end of 2030. This growth is driven by increasing demand for wheat bran globally, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for volume and +3.6% for value from 2023 to 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for wheat bran worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 132M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $49.7B (in in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Wheat Bran

After four years of decline, consumption of wheat bran increased by 0.4% to 121M tons in 2023. Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 8.2%. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 125M tons. From 2019 to 2023, the growth of the global consumption remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The global wheat bran market value totaled $38.8B in 2023, picking up by 2.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $50.4B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of wheat bran consumption was China (24M tons), comprising approx. 20% of total volume. Moreover, wheat bran consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (8.3M tons), threefold. India (7.9M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.5% share.

In China, wheat bran consumption shrank by an average annual rate of -1.8% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+2.6% per year) and India (-0.7% per year).

In value terms, the largest wheat bran markets worldwide were China ($6.8B), Turkey ($6.7B) and Nigeria ($4.6B), with a combined 47% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Turkey, with a CAGR of +9.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of wheat bran per capita consumption in 2023 were Turkey (60 kg per person), Italy (35 kg per person) and Japan (27 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Pakistan (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Wheat Bran

In 2023, production of wheat bran increased by 0.1% to 120M tons, rising for the second year in a row after three years of decline. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 7.9%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 124M tons. From 2019 to 2023, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, wheat bran production expanded to $38.7B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $50.2B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (23M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of wheat bran production, comprising approx. 19% of total volume. Moreover, wheat bran production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (8.5M tons), threefold. The United States (8.5M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.1% share.

In China, wheat bran production declined by an average annual rate of -2.3% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+0.1% per year) and the United States (+2.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Wheat Bran

In 2023, purchases abroad of wheat bran decreased by -1.4% to 8.2M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a three-year rising trend. In general, total imports indicated prominent growth from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +74.7% against 2013 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when imports increased by 16% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 8.3M tons in 2022, and then fell modestly in the following year.

In value terms, wheat bran imports totaled $1.8B in 2023. Over the period under review, total imports indicated tangible growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +80.4% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when imports increased by 19% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2023 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

Turkey (1.4M tons) and China (1.2M tons) represented roughly 31% of total imports in 2023. It was distantly followed by Canada (711K tons), the Netherlands (605K tons), Vietnam (452K tons), Germany (434K tons) and Ireland (403K tons), together creating a 32% share of total imports. Spain (242K tons), Belgium (163K tons), Saudi Arabia (162K tons), the United States (144K tons), Morocco (138K tons) and South Africa (131K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +40.9%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat bran importing markets worldwide were China ($337M), Turkey ($295M) and the Netherlands ($144M), together accounting for 43% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, China, with a CAGR of +52.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average wheat bran import price stood at $223 per ton in 2023, surging by 3% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 13% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $244 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($288 per ton), while Canada ($36 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+8.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Wheat Bran

In 2023, global exports of wheat bran declined to 7.7M tons, waning by -4.8% against 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a prominent expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +14.0% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 8.1M tons, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

In value terms, wheat bran exports contracted to $1.7B in 2023. Over the period under review, total exports indicated strong growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +91.7% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when exports increased by 29% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $1.9B, and then contracted in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Russia (1.1M tons), followed by Indonesia (682K tons), India (655K tons) and Germany (568K tons) represented the key exporters of wheat bran, together mixing up 40% of total exports. France (319K tons), Ukraine (305K tons), the United States (289K tons), Kazakhstan (265K tons), Tanzania (246K tons), Poland (238K tons), Italy (195K tons), the Netherlands (152K tons) and Kenya (143K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +108.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Russia ($256M), India ($213M) and Indonesia ($172M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, with a combined 37% share of global exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, India, with a CAGR of +107.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average wheat bran export price stood at $227 per ton in 2023, remaining stable against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 20% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $231 per ton in 2022, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was India ($326 per ton), while Ukraine ($103 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (+7.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform