United States' Tomato Market Forecast to Reach 15M Tons and $28.5B by 2035 Amid Rising Imports

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The US tomato market saw a decline in domestic consumption and production in 2024, with consumption at 13M tons and production at 11M tons. However, imports surged to 2.1M tons, primarily from Mexico, which supplied 90% of imports. The market is forecast to grow slightly to 15M tons in volume and $28.5B in value by 2035. Exports, mainly to Canada, increased in value to $428M. Key trends include a shrinking domestic harvested area, rising import dependency, and increasing prices for both imports and exports.

Key Findings

• US tomato market is forecast to grow to 15M tons and $28.5B by 2035
• Domestic production and consumption declined in 2024, falling to 11M and 13M tons respectively
• Imports surged to 2.1M tons, with Mexico supplying 90% of total US tomato imports
• Exports, primarily to Canada, reached 212K tons valued at $428M
• Average import and export prices rose significantly, reaching $1,704 and $2,025 per ton

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for tomato in the United States, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 15M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $28.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

United States's Consumption of Tomatoes

In 2024, consumption of tomatoes in the United States reduced to 13M tons, waning by -6.8% on 2023. Overall, consumption recorded a slight decline. Over the period under review, consumption reached the peak volume at 17M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The revenue of the tomato market in the United States totaled $24.1B in 2024, rising by 5.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Tomato consumption peaked at $27.9B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Production

United States's Production of Tomatoes

In 2024, approx. 11M tons of tomatoes were produced in the United States; shrinking by -8.6% against 2023. Overall, production saw a mild decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when the production volume increased by 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at 16M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. Tomato output in the United States indicated a slight contraction, which was largely conditioned by a slight downturn of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, tomato production reached $21.3B in 2024. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $25.9B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Yield

The average yield of tomatoes in the United States fell slightly to 97 tons per ha in 2024, declining by -3.9% on 2023 figures. Over the period under review, the yield, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 9.2%. Over the period under review, the average tomato yield attained the maximum level at 101 tons per ha in 2023, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

Harvested Area

In 2024, approx. 116K ha of tomatoes were harvested in the United States; dropping by -4.9% on the year before. Overall, the harvested area showed a perceptible decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when the harvested area increased by 11% against the previous year. The tomato harvested area peaked at 163K ha in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

United States's Imports of Tomatoes

In 2024, imports of tomatoes into the United States expanded notably to 2.1M tons, surging by 5.9% against the previous year's figure. Overall, total imports indicated temperate growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +103.5% against 2022 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 92% against the previous year. Imports peaked in 2024 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

In value terms, tomato imports soared to $3.6B in 2024. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a resilient expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +156.2% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when imports increased by 123% against the previous year. Imports peaked in 2024 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Mexico (1.9M tons) was the main supplier of tomato to the United States, with a 90% share of total imports. Moreover, tomato imports from Mexico exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Canada (196K tons), tenfold.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume from Mexico totaled +3.0%.

In value terms, Mexico ($3.1B) constituted the largest supplier of tomatoes to the United States, comprising 86% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Canada ($469M), with a 13% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Mexico totaled +5.6%.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average tomato import price amounted to $1,704 per ton, growing by 8.6% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average import price increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($2,398 per ton), while the price for Mexico amounted to $1,626 per ton.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+2.5%).

Exports

United States's Exports of Tomatoes

In 2024, approx. 212K tons of tomatoes were exported from the United States; picking up by 8.4% on the year before. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 8.9%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum at 220K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tomato exports soared to $428M in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Canada (201K tons) was the main destination for tomato exports from the United States, accounting for a 95% share of total exports. It was followed by Mexico (2.9K tons), with a 1.4% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Canada was relatively modest.

In value terms, Canada ($408M) remains the key foreign market for tomatoes exports from the United States, comprising 95% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Mexico ($3.6M), with a 0.8% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to Canada amounted to +2.9%.

Export Prices By Country

The average tomato export price stood at $2,025 per ton in 2024, jumping by 23% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($2,028 per ton), while the average price for exports to Mexico totaled $1,209 per ton.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Canada (+2.2%).