Middle East's Tomato Market Forecast Shows Steady Growth With 40% Value CAGR

IndexBox has just published a new report: Middle East - Tomatoes - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the tomato market in the Middle East. It forecasts a slight upward trend with a volume CAGR of +3.2% to reach 28M tons and a value CAGR of +4.0% to reach $23.7B by 2035. Turkey dominates both consumption (63%) and production (64%). The market saw a slight consumption increase to 20M tons in 2024 but a drop in value to $15.5B. Regional trade shows significant declines, with imports falling sharply to 203K tons and exports dropping to 606K tons, with Turkey being the leading exporter. The analysis includes detailed breakdowns by country for consumption, production, and trade, along with data on yield, harvested area, and price trends.

Key Findings

• Middle East tomato market is forecast to grow to 28M tons and $23.7B by 2035, with CAGRs of +3.2% and +4.0% respectively
• Turkey is the dominant market player, accounting for approximately 63% of total consumption and 64% of production
• Regional tomato imports and exports have contracted sharply, falling by -26.8% and -31.5% in 2024 respectively
• Significant price disparities exist in trade, with Kuwait's import price over six times higher than Syria's
• Market yield has increased steadily, but the harvested area has shown a perceptible long-term shrinkage

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for tomato in the Middle East, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 28M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $23.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Middle East's Consumption of Tomatoes

In 2024, consumption of tomatoes increased by 0.6% to 20M tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Overall, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the consumption volume increased by 3.9% against the previous year. The volume of consumption peaked at 22M tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The size of the tomato market in the Middle East dropped to $15.5B in 2024, with a decrease of -3.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $16B, and then declined in the following year.

Consumption By Country

Turkey (13M tons) remains the largest tomato consuming country in the Middle East, comprising approx. 63% of total volume. Moreover, tomato consumption in Turkey exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Iran (3.3M tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Syrian Arab Republic (724K tons), with a 3.6% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Turkey amounted to +1.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Iran (-4.5% per year) and Syrian Arab Republic (+2.8% per year).

In value terms, Turkey ($10.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Iran ($1.3B). It was followed by Saudi Arabia.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in Turkey stood at +1.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Iran (-5.4% per year) and Saudi Arabia (+5.0% per year).

In 2024, the highest levels of tomato per capita consumption was registered in Turkey (147 kg per person), followed by Jordan (58 kg per person), Iran (38 kg per person) and Syrian Arab Republic (33 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of tomato was estimated at 55 kg per person.

In Turkey, tomato per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Jordan (-2.1% per year) and Iran (-5.7% per year).

Production

Middle East's Production of Tomatoes

In 2024, tomato production in the Middle East contracted to 20M tons, stabilizing at the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 4.5%. Over the period under review, production reached the peak volume at 22M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a noticeable increase in yield figures.

In value terms, tomato production dropped to $16.3B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 20%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $17B, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

Turkey (13M tons) remains the largest tomato producing country in the Middle East, accounting for 64% of total volume. Moreover, tomato production in Turkey exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Iran (3.4M tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Syrian Arab Republic (695K tons), with a 3.4% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in Turkey was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Iran (-4.7% per year) and Syrian Arab Republic (+3.0% per year).

Yield

In 2024, the average tomato yield in the Middle East fell modestly to 63 tons per ha, remaining constant against the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the yield increased by 7.9%. Over the period under review, the tomato yield hit record highs at 64 tons per ha in 2023, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Harvested Area

The tomato harvested area was estimated at 326K ha in 2024, standing approx. at 2023 figures. In general, the harvested area, however, showed a perceptible shrinkage. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the harvested area increased by 2.6%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to tomato production reached the peak figure at 465K ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

Middle East's Imports of Tomatoes

In 2024, supplies from abroad of tomatoes decreased by -26.8% to 203K tons, falling for the third consecutive year after two years of growth. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate a abrupt downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 40% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked at 1.3M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, tomato imports fell rapidly to $156M in 2024. Overall, imports recorded a abrupt curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when imports increased by 19%. The level of import peaked at $596M in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

Syrian Arab Republic (67K tons) and Qatar (57K tons) were the largest importers of tomatoes in 2024, accounting for near 33% and 28% of total imports, respectively. It was distantly followed by Lebanon (17K tons), Kuwait (15K tons), Israel (14K tons), Iraq (13K tons) and the United Arab Emirates (13K tons), together comprising a 35% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Israel (with a CAGR of +28.4%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the imports figures.

In value terms, the largest tomato importing markets in the Middle East were Kuwait ($31M), Israel ($27M) and the United Arab Emirates ($23M), together comprising 52% of total imports.

Israel, with a CAGR of +45.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced a decline in the imports figures.

Import Prices By Country

The import price in the Middle East stood at $767 per ton in 2024, reducing by -25.9% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate temperate growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 an increase of 106% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $1,035 per ton, and then reduced sharply in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Kuwait ($2,073 per ton), while Syrian Arab Republic ($310 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Israel (+13.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Middle East's Exports of Tomatoes

In 2024, overseas shipments of tomatoes decreased by -31.5% to 606K tons, falling for the third consecutive year after three years of growth. In general, exports showed a deep setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 53% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum at 1.9M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tomato exports shrank significantly to $507M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports recorded a noticeable reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when exports increased by 48% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $967M in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

Turkey prevails in exports structure, amounting to 492K tons, which was approx. 81% of total exports in 2024. Iran (60K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 9.9% share, followed by Syrian Arab Republic (6.3%).

Turkey experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of tomatoes. Syrian Arab Republic (-1.1%) and Iran (-12.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of Turkey and Syrian Arab Republic increased by +37 and +2.4 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, Turkey ($425M) remains the largest tomato supplier in the Middle East, comprising 84% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Syrian Arab Republic ($38M), with a 7.6% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Turkey was relatively modest. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Syrian Arab Republic (+8.5% per year) and Iran (-14.5% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in the Middle East amounted to $837 per ton, declining by -2% against the previous year. Export price indicated a noticeable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, tomato export price increased by +86.0% against 2017 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when the export price increased by 54%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $854 per ton, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Syrian Arab Republic ($1,010 per ton), while Iran ($262 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Syrian Arab Republic (+9.7%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.