China's Tomato Market Forecast Shows Decelerating Growth With 0.8% CAGR Through 2035

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This article provides a comprehensive analysis of China's tomato market. After eleven years of growth, both consumption and production saw a slight decline in 2024 to 69 million tons, valued at $61 billion. The market is forecast to grow at a decelerated pace, with a projected CAGR of +0.8% in volume and +0.9% in value through 2035, reaching 75 million tons and $67.1 billion respectively. China is a net exporter, with key destinations including Vietnam, Russia, and Hong Kong SAR. Imports are minimal but saw a significant percentage increase in 2024 from a very low base. The analysis details trends in yield, harvested area, and trade dynamics with partner countries.

Key Findings

• China's tomato market is forecast for slow growth, with volume projected to reach 75M tons by 2035 at a CAGR of +0.8%
• After 11 years of growth, 2024 saw a slight dip in both consumption and production to approximately 69M tons
• China is a major net exporter, with Vietnam, Russia, and Hong Kong SAR as the top destinations, accounting for 81% of export volume
• Import volume, while negligible for the domestic market, surged by 316% in 2024, primarily from the United States
• Average export prices are significantly higher than import prices, with Hong Kong SAR paying the highest price at $1,909 per ton

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for tomatoes in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 75M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $67.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

China's Consumption of Tomatoes

In 2024, after eleven years of growth, there was decline in consumption of tomatoes, when its volume decreased by -1.3% to 69M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, consumption reached the maximum volume at 70M tons in 2023, and then fell slightly in the following year.

The revenue of the tomato market in China declined slightly to $61B in 2024, shrinking by -5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a buoyant expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption decreased by -15.8% against 2021 indices. Tomato consumption peaked at $72.5B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Production

China's Production of Tomatoes

After eleven years of growth, production of tomatoes decreased by -1.3% to 69M tons in 2024. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 5.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at 70M tons in 2023, and then shrank slightly in the following year. Tomato output in China indicated a temperate increase, which was largely conditioned by a perceptible expansion of the harvested area and slight growth in yield figures.

In value terms, tomato production contracted to $63.3B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, enjoyed a resilient increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 44%. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum level at $79.5B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Yield

The average yield of tomatoes in China shrank modestly to 60 tons per ha in 2024, standing approx. at 2023. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average tomato yield hit record highs at 61 tons per ha in 2023, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the total area harvested in terms of tomatoes production in China reduced slightly to 1.1M ha, approximately reflecting the year before. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 2.7%. The tomato harvested area peaked at 1.2M ha in 2023, and then fell in the following year.

Imports

China's Imports of Tomatoes

Tomato imports into China skyrocketed to 30 tons in 2024, picking up by 316% against the previous year's figure. In general, imports, however, recorded a abrupt slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 3,678%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at 647 tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tomato imports soared to $41K in 2024. Overall, imports, however, recorded a abrupt setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 5,740% against the previous year. Imports peaked at $1.2M in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, the United States (23 tons) constituted the largest supplier of tomato to China, with a 78% share of total imports. Moreover, tomato imports from the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Brazil (6.7 tons), threefold.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from the United States amounted to -17.9%.

In value terms, the United States ($29K) constituted the largest supplier of tomatoes to China, comprising 72% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Brazil ($11K), with a 28% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value from the United States amounted to -20.0%.

Import Prices By Country

The average tomato import price stood at $1,350 per ton in 2024, with a decrease of -18.3% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a slight decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 an increase of 55%. The import price peaked at $1,948 per ton in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Brazil ($1,697 per ton), while the price for the United States amounted to $1,250 per ton.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+9.8%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced a decline.

Exports

China's Exports of Tomatoes

After two years of decline, shipments abroad of tomatoes increased by 8.5% to 197K tons in 2024. In general, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 87% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at 307K tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tomato exports stood at $193M in 2024. Overall, exports continue to indicate a buoyant expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 59%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $436M. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Vietnam (78K tons), Russia (52K tons) and Hong Kong SAR (30K tons) were the main destinations of tomato exports from China, together comprising 81% of total exports. Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Macao SAR and Kazakhstan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Kyrgyzstan (with a CAGR of +36.8%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Russia ($61M), Hong Kong SAR ($58M) and Vietnam ($46M) constituted the largest markets for tomato exported from China worldwide, together comprising 85% of total exports.

Vietnam, with a CAGR of +42.5%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average tomato export price stood at $982 per ton in 2024, dropping by -6.7% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, enjoyed a buoyant expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 an increase of 64%. The export price peaked at $1,420 per ton in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Hong Kong SAR ($1,909 per ton), while the average price for exports to Macao SAR ($254 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Hong Kong SAR (+17.9%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.