Global Sour Cherry Market's Steady Growth Forecast at 1.2% CAGR Through 2035

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The global sour cherry market is forecast to grow, with consumption volume projected to reach 1.8 million tons by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of +1.2%. In value terms, the market is expected to increase to $3.2 billion, growing at a CAGR of +3.4%. In 2024, global consumption was approximately 1.6 million tons, led by Russia, Poland, and Turkey. Production remained stable at 1.6 million tons, with similar leading producers. International trade saw imports rise to 42,000 tons in 2024, with Germany as the largest importer, while exports declined to 34,000 tons, led by Hungary and Spain.

Key Findings

• Market volume is forecast to grow to 1.8M tons by 2035, with a CAGR of +1.2%
• Market value is projected to reach $3.2B by 2035, growing at a faster CAGR of +3.4%
• Russia, Poland, and Turkey are the top three consuming and producing nations
• Serbia has the world's highest per capita consumption at 23 kg per person
• Global trade is shifting, with Egypt and the Netherlands emerging as fast-growing importers

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for sour cherries worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.8M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $3.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Sour Cherries

In 2024, approx. 1.6M tons of sour cherries were consumed worldwide; surging by 4.2% against the year before. Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 1.6M tons in 2022; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

The global sour cherry market size rose rapidly to $2.2B in 2024, surging by 6.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $2.4B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Russia (286K tons), Poland (177K tons) and Turkey (176K tons), with a combined 41% share of global consumption. Ukraine, Serbia, Iran, the United States, Uzbekistan and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 44%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($461M), Russia ($275M) and Poland ($248M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together accounting for 44% of the global market.

Russia, with a CAGR of +3.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, the highest levels of sour cherry per capita consumption was registered in Serbia (23 kg per person), followed by Hungary (5.4 kg per person), Poland (4.7 kg per person) and Ukraine (4 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of sour cherry was estimated at 0.2 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the sour cherry per capita consumption in Serbia amounted to +2.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Hungary (+0.2% per year) and Poland (-0.1% per year).

Production

World's Production of Sour Cherries

Global sour cherry production expanded slightly to 1.6M tons in 2024, with an increase of 3.7% on the previous year's figure. Overall, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 16%. Global production peaked at 1.6M tons in 2022; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, sour cherry production rose remarkably to $2.2B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 9.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $2.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Russia (283K tons), Turkey (176K tons) and Poland (176K tons), together accounting for 41% of global production. Ukraine, Serbia, Iran, the United States and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average sour cherry yield expanded slightly to 6.9 tons per ha in 2024, growing by 2.6% against 2023. Over the period under review, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 11%. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 7.2 tons per ha. From 2019 to 2024, the growth of the average sour cherry yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the global sour cherry harvested area amounted to 225K ha, remaining constant against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the harvested area recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 4.9% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked at 228K ha in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World's Imports of Sour Cherries

In 2024, purchases abroad of sour cherries was finally on the rise to reach 42K tons after three years of decline. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a noticeable slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 29% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 81K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry imports skyrocketed to $80M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw a perceptible reduction. Global imports peaked at $117M in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

Germany was the main importing country with an import of around 11K tons, which amounted to 27% of total imports. Poland (3.3K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 7.7% share, followed by Russia (7.6%), Austria (6.3%), Italy (6%), the Netherlands (6%) and Egypt (5.3%). Romania (1.4K tons), Kazakhstan (1.2K tons) and Palestine (1K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

Imports into Germany decreased at an average annual rate of -9.7% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Egypt (+50.7%), Kazakhstan (+43.1%), the Netherlands (+31.3%), Palestine (+19.5%), Romania (+12.7%) and Italy (+8.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Egypt emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +50.7% from 2013-2024. Poland experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Austria (-4.4%) and Russia (-10.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the Netherlands (+5.8 p.p.), Egypt (+5.3 p.p.), Italy (+4.5 p.p.), Poland (+3.5 p.p.), Kazakhstan (+2.7 p.p.), Romania (+2.7 p.p.) and Palestine (+2.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2013-2024, the share of Russia (-6.8 p.p.) and Germany (-21.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($17M) constitutes the largest market for imported sour cherries worldwide, comprising 21% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Italy ($7.7M), with a 9.6% share of global imports. It was followed by Poland, with a 6.3% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in Germany totaled -6.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (+14.2% per year) and Poland (+7.0% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average sour cherry import price stood at $1,890 per ton in 2024, picking up by 7.8% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average import price increased by 36%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $1,916 per ton. From 2018 to 2024, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($2,994 per ton), while Russia ($987 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Palestine (+6.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Sour Cherries

For the fourth consecutive year, the global market recorded decline in overseas shipments of sour cherries, which decreased by -9.6% to 34K tons in 2024. Over the period under review, exports showed a deep reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when exports increased by 24%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 78K tons. From 2016 to 2024, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry exports reduced slightly to $63M in 2024. In general, exports recorded a perceptible curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 45% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $135M. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2024, Hungary (9.7K tons), distantly followed by Spain (5.5K tons), Moldova (2.8K tons), Poland (2.6K tons), Bulgaria (1.8K tons), the Czech Republic (1.6K tons) and Greece (1.5K tons) represented the key exporters of sour cherries, together making up 76% of total exports. The following exporters - the United States (941 tons), Iran (933 tons) and Israel (906 tons) - each resulted at an 8.3% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Israel (with a CAGR of +54.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest sour cherry supplying countries worldwide were Spain ($17M), Hungary ($11M) and Poland ($5.5M), together accounting for 54% of global exports. Greece, the United States, Moldova, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Israel and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

Israel, with a CAGR of +35.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average sour cherry export price amounted to $1,882 per ton, surging by 8% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 30%. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($3,361 per ton), while Moldova ($845 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Greece (+8.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.