European Union's sour cherry market to see gradual growth with CAGR of +0.6% over the next decade

IndexBox has just published a new report: EU - Sour Cherries - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

Driven by increasing demand for sour cherries in the European Union, the market is anticipated to grow steadily over the next decade. The forecasted CAGR of +0.6% in volume and +3.1% in value from 2024 to 2035 suggests a positive trend, leading to an estimated market volume of 336K tons and market value of $645M by the end of 2035.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for sour cherry in the European Union, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 336K tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $645M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

European Union's Consumption of Sour Cherries

In 2024, sour cherry consumption in the European Union totaled 313K tons, surging by 5.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a slight setback. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 389K tons. From 2019 to 2024, the growth of the consumption remained at a lower figure.

The revenue of the sour cherry market in the European Union surged to $462M in 2024, with an increase of 21% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level at $467M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

Poland (174K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of sour cherry consumption, accounting for 55% of total volume. Moreover, sour cherry consumption in Poland exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Hungary (52K tons), threefold. Romania (30K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 9.7% share.

In Poland, sour cherry consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Hungary (-0.0% per year) and Romania (-4.4% per year).

In value terms, Poland ($252M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Romania ($61M). It was followed by Hungary.

In Poland, the sour cherry market increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Romania (-2.2% per year) and Hungary (-0.1% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of sour cherry per capita consumption in 2024 were Hungary (5.4 kg per person), Poland (4.6 kg per person) and Romania (1.6 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +9.1%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

European Union's Production of Sour Cherries

In 2024, approx. 314K tons of sour cherries were produced in the European Union; rising by 7.5% compared with the year before. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a slight contraction. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum volume at 387K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a slight downturn of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, sour cherry production soared to $500M in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, production reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

Poland (176K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of sour cherry production, accounting for 56% of total volume. Moreover, sour cherry production in Poland exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Hungary (61K tons), threefold. Romania (29K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.2% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in Poland was relatively modest. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Hungary (-1.3% per year) and Romania (-4.8% per year).

Yield

The average sour cherry yield reached 6.3 tons per ha in 2024, increasing by 5.1% compared with the previous year. In general, the yield saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 10% against the previous year. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of 7 tons per ha. From 2019 to 2024, the growth of the sour cherry yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

In 2024, approx. 49K ha of sour cherries were harvested in the European Union; with an increase of 2.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, saw a perceptible decline. The level of harvested area peaked at 64K ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

European Union's Imports of Sour Cherries

In 2024, purchases abroad of sour cherries was finally on the rise to reach 25K tons for the first time since 2020, thus ending a three-year declining trend. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a abrupt downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 38% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at 50K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry imports skyrocketed to $48M in 2024. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a slight downturn. The level of import peaked at $54M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Germany (11K tons) represented the key importer of sour cherries, creating 47% of total imports. Austria (2.7K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Italy (2.6K tons), the Netherlands (2.5K tons) and Romania (1.4K tons). All these countries together took near 37% share of total imports. The following importers - the Czech Republic (569 tons) and Hungary (552 tons) - each reached a 4.5% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to sour cherry imports into Germany stood at -9.7%. At the same time, the Netherlands (+31.3%), Romania (+12.7%), Italy (+8.0%) and the Czech Republic (+6.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the European Union, with a CAGR of +31.3% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Austria (-4.4%) and Hungary (-10.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the Netherlands (+10 p.p.), Italy (+8.2 p.p.), Romania (+4.8 p.p.), Austria (+2.1 p.p.) and the Czech Republic (+1.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2013-2024, the share of Germany (-24.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($17M) constitutes the largest market for imported sour cherries in the European Union, comprising 36% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Italy ($7.7M), with a 16% share of total imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with an 8.2% share.

In Germany, sour cherry imports plunged by an average annual rate of -6.7% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Italy (+14.2% per year) and the Netherlands (+11.0% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The import price in the European Union stood at $1,938 per ton in 2024, rising by 51% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 53%. The level of import peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($2,994 per ton), while Austria ($1,204 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hungary (+7.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

European Union's Exports of Sour Cherries

In 2024, shipments abroad of sour cherries was finally on the rise to reach 25K tons after two years of decline. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a abrupt slump. The volume of export peaked at 58K tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry exports soared to $48M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a perceptible setback. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at $80M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Hungary was the key exporting country with an export of about 9.7K tons, which resulted at 39% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Spain (5.5K tons), Poland (2.6K tons), Bulgaria (1.8K tons), the Czech Republic (1.6K tons) and Greece (1.5K tons), together achieving a 52% share of total exports. Slovenia (656 tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Slovenia (with a CAGR of +70.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest sour cherry supplying countries in the European Union were Spain ($17M), Hungary ($11M) and Poland ($5.5M), together comprising 70% of total exports. Greece, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovenia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 20%.

Among the main exporting countries, Slovenia, with a CAGR of +64.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in the European Union amounted to $1,922 per ton, growing by 7.1% against the previous year. Export price indicated a mild expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, sour cherry export price increased by +64.6% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when the export price increased by 54% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the peak figure in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($3,118 per ton), while Hungary ($1,169 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Greece (+8.0%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.