Japan's Prepared Meals Market Forecast Shows Steady 0.9% CAGR Growth Through 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: Japan - Prepared Dishes and Meals - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

Japan's prepared dishes and meals market is forecast to grow steadily through 2035, with consumption volume reaching 2.6M tons (0.8% CAGR) and market value reaching $45.5B (0.9% CAGR). In 2024, consumption increased to 2.4M tons while market value contracted to $41.3B. Domestic production grew to 2.1M tons, while imports declined to 315K tons, primarily from South Korea, Thailand, and China. Exports decreased slightly to 43K tons, with Hong Kong SAR, South Korea, and the US as main destinations. Significant price disparities exist in both imports and exports, with the US being the highest-priced import source and China the highest-priced export market.

Key Findings

• Japan's prepared dishes market to grow at 0.8% CAGR in volume and 0.9% CAGR in value through 2035
• Domestic production increased to 2.1M tons in 2024 while imports declined to 315K tons
• South Korea, Thailand and China supply 73% of Japan's prepared meals imports
• Export prices average $17,163 per ton, significantly higher than import prices of $2,599 per ton
• Vietnam shows fastest growth among both import sources and export destinations

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for prepared dishes and meals in Japan, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.6M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $45.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Japan's Consumption of Prepared Dishes and Meals

In 2024, consumption of prepared dishes and meals increased by 2.8% to 2.4M tons, rising for the second year in a row after three years of decline. Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when the consumption volume increased by 3.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption reached the maximum volume in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

The size of the prepared dishes and meal market in Japan contracted to $41.3B in 2024, shrinking by -3.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $63.1B. From 2021 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production

Japan's Production of Prepared Dishes and Meals

In 2024, production of prepared dishes and meals increased by 4.2% to 2.1M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 with an increase of 6.2%. Prepared dishes and meal production peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, prepared dishes and meal production fell slightly to $36.3B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a mild increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production decreased by -38.0% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 32% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $58.5B. From 2021 to 2024, production growth failed to regain momentum.

Imports

Japan's Imports of Prepared Dishes and Meals

In 2024, overseas purchases of prepared dishes and meals decreased by -6.2% to 315K tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, imports showed a perceptible reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 2.9%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 412K tons. From 2015 to 2024, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, prepared dishes and meal imports declined to $819M in 2024. Overall, imports showed a pronounced descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 3.9%. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at $1.1B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

South Korea (111K tons), Thailand (79K tons) and China (39K tons) were the main suppliers of prepared dishes and meal imports to Japan, together accounting for 73% of total imports. Malaysia, Singapore, New Zealand, Vietnam, the Netherlands and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 22%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +34.9%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced mixed trend patterns.

In value terms, the United States ($146M), South Korea ($131M) and China ($118M) constituted the largest prepared dishes and meal suppliers to Japan, together comprising 48% of total imports. Thailand, New Zealand, Singapore, the Netherlands, Malaysia and Vietnam lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Vietnam, with a CAGR of +34.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average prepared dishes and meal import price stood at $2,599 per ton in 2024, with an increase of 2.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average import price increased by 5.3%. The import price peaked at $2,703 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($29,873 per ton), while the price for Thailand ($1,013 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+7.2%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Japan's Exports of Prepared Dishes and Meals

In 2024, shipments abroad of prepared dishes and meals decreased by -0.3% to 43K tons, falling for the third year in a row after nine years of growth. Overall, total exports indicated a prominent expansion from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -3.5% against 2021 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 22% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 45K tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, prepared dishes and meal exports reduced to $745M in 2024. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 45%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $1.2B. From 2021 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

Hong Kong SAR (9K tons), South Korea (6.4K tons) and the United States (6.4K tons) were the main destinations of prepared dishes and meal exports from Japan, with a combined 50% share of total exports. Taiwan (Chinese), China, Vietnam, Singapore, Australia, the Netherlands, the UK and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +21.6%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for prepared dishes and meal exported from Japan were China ($190M), Hong Kong SAR ($102M) and Taiwan (Chinese) ($81M), together comprising 50% of total exports. Vietnam, the United States, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, the Netherlands, Australia and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Among the main countries of destination, Vietnam, with a CAGR of +28.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average prepared dishes and meal export price amounted to $17,163 per ton, dropping by -10.1% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the average export price increased by 38% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $32,518 per ton. From 2021 to 2024, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major export markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($64,042 per ton), while the average price for exports to the UK ($3,241 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to China (+12.1%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.