Africa's Paddy Rice Market Poised for Steady Growth With 2.2% CAGR in Value Through 2035

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This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the paddy rice market in Africa. It details that in 2024, consumption and production both saw a slight decrease to 41 million tons, ending a six-year rising trend, with a market value of $22.3B. Nigeria, Madagascar, and Egypt are the largest consumers and producers. The market is forecast to grow to 48M tons and $28.4B by 2035, with anticipated CAGRs of +1.4% in volume and +2.2% in value. Intra-African trade is minimal, with South Africa as the leading exporter and Uganda showing the fastest import growth. Senegal has demonstrated the most significant consumption growth rate among major countries over the past decade.

Key Findings

• Market forecast to reach 48M tons and $28.4B by 2035, with value growing at a +2.2% CAGR
• Nigeria, Madagascar, and Egypt lead consumption, together accounting for 45% of the total volume
• Senegal recorded the highest consumption growth rate (+11.6% CAGR) from 2013 to 2024
• Africa's paddy rice trade is limited, with imports and exports representing a tiny fraction of total production and consumption
• Uganda showed the fastest growth in import value (+29.5% CAGR), while South Africa remains the dominant exporter

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for paddy rice in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 48M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $28.4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Africa's Consumption of Paddy Rice

In 2024, consumption of paddy rice decreased by -3% to 41M tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a six-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the consumption volume increased by 6.5%. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs at 43M tons in 2023, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

The revenue of the paddy rice market in Africa reduced to $22.3B in 2024, approximately reflecting the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 6.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $22.5B in 2023, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Nigeria (8.7M tons), Madagascar (5M tons) and Egypt (5M tons), together comprising 45% of total consumption. Tanzania, Guinea, Mali, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Senegal and Sierra Leone lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Senegal (with a CAGR of +11.6%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Nigeria ($7.3B), Egypt ($4.3B) and Madagascar ($1.9B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together accounting for 61% of the total market. Mali, Guinea, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal and Sierra Leone lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

Among the main consuming countries, Senegal, with a CAGR of +11.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of paddy rice per capita consumption in 2024 were Guinea (229 kg per person), Madagascar (163 kg per person) and Sierra Leone (162 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Senegal (with a CAGR of +8.6%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

Africa's Production of Paddy Rice

In 2024, production of paddy rice decreased by -3% to 41M tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a six-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 6.5%. The volume of production peaked at 43M tons in 2023, and then contracted modestly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a noticeable expansion of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, paddy rice production reduced to $21.7B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 7.3%. The level of production peaked at $22.3B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Nigeria (8.7M tons), Madagascar (5M tons) and Egypt (5M tons), with a combined 45% share of total production. Tanzania, Guinea, Mali, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Senegal and Sierra Leone lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Senegal (with a CAGR of +11.6%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The average paddy rice yield reached 2.3 tons per ha in 2024, stabilizing at the previous year. Over the period under review, the yield, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 6.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the paddy rice yield reached the maximum level at 2.4 tons per ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, the yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

The paddy rice harvested area contracted slightly to 18M ha in 2024, with a decrease of -3.3% compared with the year before. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 7.1% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of 18M ha, and then reduced in the following year.

Imports

Africa's Imports of Paddy Rice

In 2024, the amount of paddy rice imported in Africa declined to 41K tons, waning by -9.4% on the previous year. Over the period under review, imports faced a deep setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when imports increased by 36% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked at 252K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, paddy rice imports contracted notably to $21M in 2024. Overall, imports faced a abrupt curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at $115M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Uganda (12K tons), distantly followed by Libya (7.2K tons), Algeria (4.6K tons) and Swaziland (4.4K tons) were the key importers of paddy rice, together achieving 70% of total imports. The following importers - South Africa (1.8K tons), Lesotho (1.4K tons), Ethiopia (1.4K tons), Democratic Republic of the Congo (1.1K tons), Morocco (0.9K tons) and Botswana (0.7K tons) - together made up 18% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Uganda (with a CAGR of +26.6%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Libya ($3.4M), Swaziland ($3.2M) and Uganda ($3.2M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, together comprising 47% of total imports.

Uganda, with a CAGR of +29.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the import price in Africa amounted to $515 per ton, with a decrease of -12% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.1%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the import price increased by 23%. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $585 per ton in 2023, and then reduced in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Morocco ($1,286 per ton), while Democratic Republic of the Congo ($245 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ethiopia (+4.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Africa's Exports of Paddy Rice

In 2024, exports of paddy rice in Africa dropped rapidly to 10K tons, declining by -29% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a deep reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when exports increased by 181% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at 38K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, paddy rice exports dropped to $6.5M in 2024. Overall, exports continue to indicate a abrupt shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 145% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $20M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

South Africa prevails in exports structure, recording 8.1K tons, which was near 81% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by Cameroon (639 tons), generating a 6.4% share of total exports. The following exporters - Uganda (310 tons), Togo (259 tons) and Guinea (186 tons) - together made up 7.6% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to paddy rice exports from South Africa stood at -8.0%. At the same time, Togo (+79.5%), Cameroon (+43.4%), Guinea (+14.0%) and Uganda (+11.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Togo emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +79.5% from 2013-2024. South Africa (+28 p.p.), Cameroon (+6.4 p.p.), Uganda (+2.9 p.p.), Togo (+2.6 p.p.) and Guinea (+1.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($5.9M) remains the largest paddy rice supplier in Africa, comprising 91% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Cameroon ($202K), with a 3.1% share of total exports. It was followed by Guinea, with a 0.9% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in South Africa stood at -6.9%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Cameroon (+46.6% per year) and Guinea (+3.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in Africa amounted to $649 per ton, increasing by 34% against the previous year. Export price indicated a slight expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, paddy rice export price increased by +105.7% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when the export price increased by 42% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($724 per ton), while Uganda ($132 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Togo (+11.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.