Global Flour Trade to Hit Four-Year Low in 2025-26, IGC Reports
Global Flour Trade
Trade to hit four-year low in 2025-26
Imports falling in Iraq and Sudan
Shift to domestic milling cuts demand
Stock video by yousafbhutta via Pixabay
Mar 20, 2026

Global Flour Trade to Hit Four-Year Low in 2025-26, IGC Reports

According to the International Grain Council's March Grain Market Report, worldwide trade in flour is anticipated to decline to its lowest level in four years during the 2025-26 period. The primary factors behind this decrease are reduced import volumes from Iraq and Sudan.

The Council estimates that wheat flour trade will reach 16 million tonnes, representing a slight decrease from the previous year. This marks the second year in a row of contraction. A major driver is Sudan, where a return to domestic milling operations is shifting the country's demand back toward wheat imports instead of flour. Consequently, Sudan's flour imports are predicted to fall significantly from a recent peak, bringing its share of total wheat imports much closer to historical levels.

Iraq is also expected to substantially reduce its flour imports, potentially reaching its smallest volume in nearly two decades. This reduction is attributed to growing domestic milling capacity, supportive government policies, and increased local grain production. The report notes that while Iraq sourced large wheat volumes earlier in the season, future trade flows could be influenced by regional logistical disruptions.

Import forecasts have been lowered for several nations including Ethiopia, Uzbekistan, and Yemen. In contrast, projections have been raised for Afghanistan, Syria, and Bolivia. Afghanistan's imports are revised upward, with supplies increasingly coming from Russia alongside traditional sources. Syria, facing a poor harvest and milling issues, is set to become the world's second-largest flour importer on record, sourcing significant volumes from Turkey.

On the export side, Egypt's forecast has dropped considerably year-over-year. Turkey's exports, while higher than last year, remain below their recent average, with some millers exploring diversification into pasta production. Looking ahead to the 2026-27 period, the Council projects a modest recovery in global flour trade, though this depends on import margins, policy changes, and security conditions in key markets.

Purchases by Iraq and Sudan are expected to stay well below previous highs, while Afghanistan's imports may see a slight increase. Modest gains are anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa, with Somalia poised to become the largest regional buyer, though many countries there are developing their own milling industries. Turkish and Egyptian exports are forecast to rise slightly, though Turkish volumes may be limited by soft demand from key customers, and Egyptian totals will remain below past peaks due to reduced Sudanese demand.

This report provides a comprehensive view of the wheat and meslin flour industry in Iraq, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the national value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.

Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between domestic suppliers and international partners. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the wheat and meslin flour landscape in Iraq.

Quick navigation

Key findings

  • Domestic demand is shaped by both household and industrial usage, with trade flows linking local supply to imports and exports.
  • Pricing dynamics reflect unit values, freight costs, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts that affect sourcing decisions.
  • Supply depends on input availability and production efficiency, creating a distinct national cost curve.
  • Market concentration varies by segment, creating different competitive landscapes and entry barriers.
  • The 2035 outlook highlights where capacity investment and demand growth are most aligned within the country.

Report scope

The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics for Iraq. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts.

  • Market size and growth in value and volume terms
  • Consumption structure by end-use segments
  • Production capacity, output, and cost dynamics
  • Trade flows, exporters, importers, and balances
  • Price benchmarks, unit values, and margin signals
  • Competitive context and market entry conditions

Product coverage

  • FCL 16 - Flour of Wheat

Country coverage

  • Iraq

Country profile and benchmarks

This report provides a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for Iraq. The profile highlights demand structure and trade position, enabling benchmarking against regional and global peers.

Methodology

The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.

  • International trade data (exports, imports, and mirror statistics)
  • National production and consumption statistics
  • Company-level information from financial filings and public releases
  • Price series and unit value benchmarks
  • Analyst review, outlier checks, and time-series validation

All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.

Forecasts to 2035

The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links wheat and meslin flour demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts in Iraq.

  • Historical baseline: 2012-2025
  • Forecast horizon: 2026-2035
  • Scenario-based sensitivity to income growth, substitution, and regulation
  • Capacity and investment outlook for major producing companies

Each projection is built from national historical patterns and the broader regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.

Price analysis and trade dynamics

Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.

  • Price benchmarks by country and sub-region
  • Export and import unit value trends
  • Seasonality and calendar effects in trade flows
  • Price outlook to 2035 under baseline assumptions

Profiles of market participants

Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.

  • Business focus and production capabilities
  • Geographic reach and distribution networks
  • Cost structure and pricing strategy indicators
  • Compliance, certification, and sustainability context

How to use this report

  • Quantify domestic demand and identify the most attractive segments
  • Evaluate export opportunities and prioritize target destinations
  • Track price dynamics and protect margins
  • Benchmark performance against leading competitors
  • Build evidence-based forecasts for investment decisions

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of wheat and meslin flour dynamics in Iraq.

FAQ

What is included in the wheat and meslin flour market in Iraq?

The market size aggregates consumption and trade data, presented in both value and volume terms.

How are the forecasts to 2035 built?

The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.

Does the report cover prices and margins?

Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.

Which benchmarks are included?

The report benchmarks market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for Iraq.

Can this report support market entry decisions?

Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDSThis Chapter is Available Only for the Professional EditionPRO
  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
    2. MARKET STRUCTURE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
    3. TRADE BALANCE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
    4. PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
    5. MARKET FORECAST TO 2035
  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORTS
  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export

    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
  7. 7. PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
  8. 8. IMPORTS

    The Largest Import Supplying Countries

    1. IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025)
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025)
  9. 9. EXPORTS

    The Largest Destinations for Exports

    1. EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025)
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025)
  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

  11. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2025
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    3. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    4. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    5. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2025
    6. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2025
    7. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2025
    8. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2025
    9. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2025
    10. Export Prices, By Country, 2012–2025
  12. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    2. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    3. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    4. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    5. Trade Balance, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    6. Trade Balance, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    7. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    8. Market Volume Forecast to 2035
    9. Market Value Forecast to 2035
    10. Market Size and Growth, By Product
    11. Average Per Capita Consumption, By Product
    12. Exports and Growth, By Product
    13. Export Prices and Growth, By Product
    14. Production Volume and Growth
    15. Exports and Growth
    16. Export Prices and Growth
    17. Market Size and Growth
    18. Per Capita Consumption
    19. Imports and Growth
    20. Import Prices
    21. Production, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    22. Production, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    23. Imports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    24. Imports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    25. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2025
    26. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2025
    27. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2025
    28. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2025
    29. Exports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    30. Exports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
    31. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2025
    32. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2025
    33. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2025
    34. Export Prices, By Country, 2012–2025

Recommended posts

Market Intelligence

Free Data: Wheat and Meslin Flour - Iraq

Instant access. No credit card needed.