U.S. - Ethyl Alcohol - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
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U.S. - Ethyl Alcohol - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
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Article Publishing Date: Dec 6, 2021

U.S. Ethanol Market: Prices are Soaring, Bioethanol Displaces Synthetic Alcohol

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'U.S. - Ethyl Alcohol - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

In November 2021, U.S. ethanol prices hit over $3.2 per gallon, doubling against the same period in 2020. Despite this, the last factory in the U.S. producing synthetic ethanol announced ceasing operations because it cannot compete with bioethanol in terms of costs. Government investments worth $26M will drive U.S. biofuel infrastructure development. A conflict between biofuel producers and the Environmental Protection Agency is coming to a head because the agency delayed issuing the 2022 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO). This document was expected to propel the bioethanol market by elevating the standards for the biofuel percentage used in blends with traditional gasoline and diesel.

Key Trend and Insights

According to the USDA, the Eastern Cornbelt average ethanol price grew from $1.4 per gallon in January to more than $3.2 per gallon in November 2021. The most significant gains were seen past month when prices for the alcohol leapt up by more than 30%.

In the U.S., ethanol fuel production has rebounded since its downturn the previous year. According to the EIA, throughout the first eight months of 2021, there were 3.9M barrels of ethyl alcohol produced. In the same period of 2020 and 2019, 3.7M barrels and 4.0M barrels were manufactured, respectively.

Global demand for American ethanol is growing. In the first nine months of 2021, U.S. exports of ethyl alcohol consisted of $1.83B, which is 5.8% more than the same period in 2020. During the twelfth Ministerial-level meeting of the India-U.S. Trade Policy Forum, the Indian side expressed interest in obtaining a massive supply of the alcohol from the US. India's national goals call for increasing the amount of ethanol blended with petrol to 20% by 2025.

Even though the growth in demand and increased prices are beneficial for U.S. ethanol producers, the last synthetic ethanol facility in the U.S., Tuscola Plant, owned by petrochemical giant LyondellBasell, announced that it would close at the end of 2021. Faced with rapidly increasing costs for resources and energy, specifically ethylene and natural gas, synthetic ethanol cannot compete with bioethanol. Meanwhile, prices for corn, which is widely used to produce the alcohol, have gone down this year: Eastern Cornbelt average corn price decreased from $7.60 per bushel in May to $5.60 in November.

Government policies will stimulate development in the bioethanol market. The U.S. Agriculture Department announced that it would invest $26M into building biofuel infrastructure in 23 states as part of the 'Higher Blends' program. The subsidies will stimulate replacing old-style fuel pumps and storage tanks with blended pumps and tanks suitable for E15 and E85 fuels, as well as biodiesel. The USDA projects that the grants will help increase potential sales for biofuels by 822M gallons per year.

The relationship between biofuel producers and government bodies worsens, threatening to become a severe conflict. Growth Energy, the leading American trade association advancing biofuel usage, submitted a notice of intent to sue the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for failing to issue on time the 2022 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO), which regulates the blending standards of biofuels with traditional automotive fuels. By retaining the status quo for the RVO, current standards won't be reevaluated to increase the percentage of green energy sources used and thus hinder growth in the biofuel market.

U.S. Ethyl Alcohol Exports

In 2020, exports of ethyl alcohol from the U.S. reduced to 6.5B litres, falling by -7.7% against the year before. In value terms, ethanol exports contracted to $2.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

Canada (1.5B litres), Brazil (946M litres) and India (898M litres) were the main destinations of ethanol exports from the U.S., together comprising 52% of total exports. South Korea, Mexico, the Netherlands, Colombia, the Philippines, Peru, Nigeria, the UK and China lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

In value terms, Canada ($596M), Brazil ($318M) and India ($312M) appeared to be the largest markets for ethanol exported from the U.S. worldwide, with a combined 51% share of total exports. South Korea, the Netherlands, Mexico, Colombia, Peru, the Philippines, Nigeria, the UK and China lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

In 2020, the average ethanol export price amounted to $0.4 per litre, rising by 6.1% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($0.5 per litre), while the average price for exports to the Philippines ($0.3 per litre) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to the Netherlands, while the prices for the other significant destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Product coverage:
• Prodcom 20147400 - Undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength by volume. .80 % (important: excluding alcohol duty)
• Prodcom 20147500 - Denatured ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits, of any strength

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the ethanol market in the U.S.. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2025.


Country coverage:
• USA

Data coverage:
• Market volume and value
• Per Capita consumption
• Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
• Trade (exports and imports) in the U.S.
• Export and import prices
• Market trends, drivers and restraints
• Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:
• Take advantage of the latest data
• Find deeper insights into current market developments
• Discover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
2. How to load your idle production capacity
3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
4. How to increase your profit margins
5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
7. How to outsource production to other countries
8. How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

1.1
REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
1.3
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1.4
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

3.1
MARKET SIZE
3.2
MARKET STRUCTURE
3.3
TRADE BALANCE
3.4
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
3.5
MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

4.1
TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
4.2
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
4.3
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4.4
MOST TRADED PRODUCT
4.5
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

5.1
TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
5.2
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
5.3
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5.4
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

6.1
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
6.2
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
6.3
UNSATURATED MARKETS
6.4
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
6.5
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

7.1
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
8. IMPORTS

The Largest Import Supplying Countries

8.1
IMPORTS FROM 2007–2020
8.2
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
8.3
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. EXPORTS

The Largest Destinations for Exports

9.1
EXPORTS FROM 2007–2020
9.2
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
9.3
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:
Key Findings In 2020
Table 2:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Table 3:
Market Value, 2007–2020
Table 4:
Per Capita Consumption In 2007-2020
Table 5:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 6:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 7:
Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2007–2020
Table 8:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 9:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 10:
Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2007–2020
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 2:
Market Value, 2007–2020
Figure 3:
Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2007-2020
Figure 4:
Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Value Terms, 2007-2020
Figure 5:
Trade Balance, In Physical Terms, 2007-2020
Figure 6:
Trade Balance, In Value Terms, 2007-2020
Figure 7:
Per Capita Consumption, 2007-2020
Figure 8:
Market Forecast To 2030
Figure 9:
Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Figure 10:
Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Figure 11:
Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Figure 12:
Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Figure 13:
Production Volume And Growth
Figure 14:
Exports And Growth
Figure 15:
Export Prices And Growth
Figure 16:
Market Size And Growth
Figure 17:
Per Capita Consumption
Figure 18:
Imports And Growth
Figure 19:
Import Prices
Figure 20:
Production, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 21:
Production, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 22:
Imports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 23:
Imports, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 24:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2020
Figure 25:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 26:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 27:
Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2007–2020
Figure 28:
Exports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 29:
Exports, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 30:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2020
Figure 31:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 32:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 33:
Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2007–2020
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