United States' Breakfast Cereal Market Poised for Steady Growth With 1.2% CAGR Through 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: U.S. - Breakfast Cereals - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the United States breakfast cereal market for 2024, with forecasts to 2035. It reports that despite a slight dip in consumption to 4.1M tons in 2024, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of +1.2% in volume and +2.1% in value over the next decade, reaching 4.7M tons and $14.7B, respectively. Domestic production was approximately 4M tons. The US is a net importer, with Canada being the largest supplier, while Canada is also the primary export destination, receiving 75% of US cereal exports. The analysis covers detailed figures on trade flows, prices, and key country partners.

Key Findings

• Market forecast to grow to 4.7M tons and $14.7B by 2035, with CAGRs of +1.2% and +2.1% respectively
• 2024 consumption was 4.1M tons, with market revenue stable at $11.7B
• Domestic production in 2024 was 4M tons, valued at $11.4B
• Canada is the dominant trade partner, leading both imports (43% share) and exports (75% share)
• Average import and export prices per ton increased to $3,168 and $3,100 in 2024

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for breakfast cereals in the United States, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.7M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $14.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

United States's Consumption of Breakfast Cereals

Breakfast cereal consumption in the United States shrank to 4.1M tons in 2024, approximately mirroring 2023. Overall, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 4.3M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the consumption failed to regain momentum.

The revenue of the breakfast cereal market in the United States reached $11.7B in 2024, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market attained the peak level in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Production

United States's Production of Breakfast Cereals

In 2024, approx. 4M tons of breakfast cereals were produced in the United States; with a decrease of -1.8% against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 86%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 4.2M tons. From 2022 to 2024, production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, breakfast cereal production fell modestly to $11.4B in 2024. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 27%. Breakfast cereal production peaked at $11.4B in 2023, and then declined in the following year.

Imports

United States's Imports of Breakfast Cereals

Breakfast cereal imports into the United States expanded remarkably to 319K tons in 2024, picking up by 8.6% on 2023 figures. Over the period under review, total imports indicated measured growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -0.3% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 66%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at 320K tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, breakfast cereal imports expanded rapidly to $1B in 2024. Overall, total imports indicated noticeable growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +96.9% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when imports increased by 15% against the previous year. Imports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Canada (136K tons) constituted the largest supplier of breakfast cereal to the United States, with a 43% share of total imports. Moreover, breakfast cereal imports from Canada exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Mexico (59K tons), twofold. South Korea (35K tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with an 11% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume from Canada was relatively modest. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Mexico (+3.8% per year) and South Korea (+26.8% per year).

In value terms, Canada ($437M) constituted the largest supplier of breakfast cereals to the United States, comprising 43% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Mexico ($183M), with an 18% share of total imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 14% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Canada amounted to +1.8%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Mexico (+2.5% per year) and South Korea (+29.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average breakfast cereal import price stood at $3,168 per ton in 2024, picking up by 1.8% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.0%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 an increase of 53%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $3,887 per ton. From 2021 to 2024, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($3,910 per ton), while the price for India ($1,887 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+4.9%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

United States's Exports of Breakfast Cereals

In 2024, overseas shipments of breakfast cereals decreased by -7.2% to 227K tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. In general, exports recorded a perceptible contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 60%. The exports peaked at 300K tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, breakfast cereal exports fell to $702M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when exports increased by 16% against the previous year. The exports peaked at $754M in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Canada (171K tons) was the main destination for breakfast cereal exports from the United States, with a 75% share of total exports. Moreover, breakfast cereal exports to Canada exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Mexico (19K tons), ninefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the Dominican Republic (7.4K tons), with a 3.3% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Canada was relatively modest. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Mexico (+0.3% per year) and the Dominican Republic (-5.3% per year).

In value terms, Canada ($533M) remains the key foreign market for breakfast cereals exports from the United States, comprising 76% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Mexico ($67M), with a 9.5% share of total exports. It was followed by the Dominican Republic, with a 1.5% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value to Canada stood at +1.2%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Mexico (+4.2% per year) and the Dominican Republic (-15.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average breakfast cereal export price amounted to $3,100 per ton, rising by 1.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a noticeable increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, breakfast cereal export price increased by +24.2% against 2021 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 an increase of 62% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $4,397 per ton. From 2021 to 2024, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major export markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($3,600 per ton), while the average price for exports to Haiti ($769 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Mexico (+3.9%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.