Japan's Beer Market: Anticipated CAGR of +1.7% in Volume and +2.0% in Value from 2024 to 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: Japan - Beer - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

Driven by increasing demand, the beer market in Japan is predicted to experience a positive trend in consumption over the next decade. Forecasts suggest a gradual increase in market performance, with volume expected to reach 1.9B litres and value to hit $1.9B by 2035, reflecting a CAGR of +1.7% and +2.0% respectively.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for beer in Japan, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.9B litres by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $1.9B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Japan's Consumption of Beer

In 2024, beer consumption in Japan declined to 1.6B litres, shrinking by -6.5% against the previous year's figure. In general, consumption continues to indicate a abrupt setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when the consumption volume increased by 8.1% against the previous year. Beer consumption peaked at 2.9B litres in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The size of the beer market in Japan dropped to $1.5B in 2024, waning by -7.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption showed a abrupt decrease. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $3.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production

Japan's Production of Beer

In 2024, beer production in Japan dropped to 1.7B litres, shrinking by -5.4% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, production saw a perceptible decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum volume at 2.9B litres in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, beer production dropped to $1.6B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a deep slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Beer production peaked at $3.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Imports

Japan's Imports of Beer

In 2024, beer imports into Japan expanded slightly to 44M litres, increasing by 3.9% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 31%. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at 47M litres in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, beer imports declined modestly to $67M in 2024. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 20%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $74M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

China (11M litres), South Korea (10M litres) and Germany (5M litres) were the main suppliers of beer imports to Japan, with a combined 59% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +27.3%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest beer suppliers to Japan were South Korea ($12M), China ($11M) and Germany ($8M), together accounting for 46% of total imports.

China, with a CAGR of +23.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average beer import price amounted to $1.5 per litre, waning by -6.2% against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 6.7% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $1.6 per litre in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($4 per litre), while the price for China ($972 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+9.8%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Japan's Exports of Beer

In 2024, overseas shipments of beer increased by 10% to 151M litres, rising for the fourth consecutive year after three years of decline. Over the period under review, exports saw a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 81% against the previous year. The exports peaked in 2024 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

In value terms, beer exports expanded notably to $139M in 2024. Overall, exports saw strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when exports increased by 56%. The exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

South Korea (82M litres) was the main destination for beer exports from Japan, accounting for a 54% share of total exports. Moreover, beer exports to South Korea exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Taiwan (Chinese) (28M litres), threefold. China (15M litres) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 10% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume to South Korea stood at +11.7%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Taiwan (Chinese) (+14.6% per year) and China (+48.5% per year).

In value terms, South Korea ($56M) remains the key foreign market for beer exports from Japan, comprising 40% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by China ($25M), with an 18% share of total exports. It was followed by Taiwan (Chinese), with a 17% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value to South Korea totaled +6.2%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: China (+52.9% per year) and Taiwan (Chinese) (+11.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average beer export price amounted to $919 per thousand litres, standing approx. at the previous year. Overall, the export price recorded a noticeable curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the average export price increased by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $1.2 per litre in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($1.6 per litre), while the average price for exports to South Korea ($682 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to China (+3.0%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.