Global Alumina Market to Grow at a CAGR of +1.3% Through 2035, Reaching 162M Tons

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The article discusses the projected growth in the alumina market over the next decade, driven by rising demand worldwide. Market performance is expected to increase at a slower pace with a forecasted CAGR of +1.3% in volume and +2.1% in value from 2024 to 2035. By the end of 2035, the market is anticipated to reach a volume of 162M tons and a value of $99.5B.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for alumina worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 162M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $99.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Alumina

In 2024, the amount of alumina consumed worldwide was estimated at 140M tons, growing by 1.6% compared with the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 143M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global alumina market value expanded sharply to $79.5B in 2024, with an increase of 8.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $86.4B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of alumina consumption was China (79M tons), comprising approx. 56% of total volume. Moreover, alumina consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (6.9M tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Canada (6.7M tons), with a 4.8% share.

In China, alumina consumption increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+4.9% per year) and Canada (+1.3% per year).

In value terms, China ($50.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($3.1B). It was followed by Canada.

In China, the alumina market expanded at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+6.9% per year) and Canada (+3.8% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of alumina per capita consumption in 2024 were Norway (460 kg per person), the United Arab Emirates (325 kg per person) and Australia (245 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +9.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Alumina

In 2024, the amount of alumina produced worldwide was estimated at 144M tons, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2023 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 7.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 145M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, alumina production amounted to $82.8B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated notable growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 32% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $91.4B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of alumina production was China (80M tons), comprising approx. 55% of total volume. Moreover, alumina production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Australia (21M tons), fourfold. Brazil (11M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.8% share.

In China, alumina production expanded at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Australia (-0.2% per year) and Brazil (+1.1% per year).

Imports

World's Imports of Alumina

In 2024, purchases abroad of alumina decreased by -0.8% to 32M tons, falling for the third year in a row after three years of growth. In general, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 11%. Global imports peaked at 36M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, alumina imports rose notably to $15.7B in 2024. Overall, total imports indicated a tangible expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -5.7% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 31%. Global imports peaked at $16.7B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Canada (5.2M tons), followed by Russia (3.3M tons), the United Arab Emirates (2.8M tons), Norway (2.6M tons), India (2M tons), Malaysia (1.8M tons), South Africa (1.8M tons) and Iceland (1.6M tons) represented the key importers of alumina, together creating 67% of total imports. China (1.4M tons) and the United States (1.1M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Malaysia (with a CAGR of +11.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest alumina importing markets worldwide were Canada ($2.2B), Russia ($1.4B) and Norway ($1.2B), together accounting for 31% of global imports. The United Arab Emirates, India, Malaysia, China, Iceland, South Africa and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +11.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average alumina import price stood at $497 per ton in 2024, increasing by 8.6% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average import price increased by 29%. Global import price peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($579 per ton), while South Africa ($366 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Norway (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Alumina

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded decline in shipments abroad of alumina, which decreased by -4.7% to 35M tons in 2024. In general, exports continue to indicate a slight reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 32% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 41M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, alumina exports skyrocketed to $17.2B in 2024. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a tangible expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 47%. The global exports peaked at $18B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Australia was the key exporting country with an export of around 15M tons, which resulted at 42% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Brazil (7.4M tons), India (2.1M tons), China (1.8M tons) and Ireland (1.7M tons), together constituting a 37% share of total exports. Indonesia (1,393K tons), Jamaica (1,008K tons), Kazakhstan (949K tons) and Spain (629K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Indonesia (with a CAGR of +137.2%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Australia ($6.9B) remains the largest alumina supplier worldwide, comprising 40% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Brazil ($3.4B), with a 20% share of global exports. It was followed by China, with a 6.2% share.

In Australia, alumina exports increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+5.8% per year) and China (+24.5% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average alumina export price amounted to $491 per ton, picking up by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a tangible expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, alumina export price increased by +49.3% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 33%. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($593 per ton), while Indonesia ($322 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.