Global Alumina Market to Grow at CAGR of +1.3%, Reaching 162M Tons by 2035

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The global alumina market is set to experience steady growth in both volume and value over the next decade, driven by increasing demand worldwide. Despite a projected deceleration in market performance, the market is expected to reach 162M tons in volume and $99.5B in value by the end of 2035.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for alumina worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 162M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $99.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Alumina

In 2024, approx. 140M tons of alumina were consumed worldwide; with an increase of 1.6% compared with 2023 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 143M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global alumina market revenue expanded markedly to $79.5B in 2024, rising by 8.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $86.4B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (79M tons) remains the largest alumina consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 56% of total volume. Moreover, alumina consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (6.9M tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Canada (6.7M tons), with a 4.8% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +4.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+4.9% per year) and Canada (+1.3% per year).

In value terms, China ($50.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($3.1B). It was followed by Canada.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +4.7%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+6.9% per year) and Canada (+3.8% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of alumina per capita consumption in 2024 were Norway (460 kg per person), the United Arab Emirates (325 kg per person) and Australia (245 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +9.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Alumina

Global alumina production was estimated at 144M tons in 2024, flattening at the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 7.2% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 145M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, alumina production expanded rapidly to $82.8B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a notable increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 32%. Global production peaked at $91.4B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (80M tons) remains the largest alumina producing country worldwide, accounting for 55% of total volume. Moreover, alumina production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Australia (21M tons), fourfold. Brazil (11M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.8% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +4.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Australia (-0.2% per year) and Brazil (+1.1% per year).

Imports

World's Imports of Alumina

In 2024, overseas purchases of alumina decreased by -0.8% to 32M tons, falling for the third year in a row after three years of growth. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 11%. Global imports peaked at 36M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, alumina imports amounted to $15.7B in 2024. In general, total imports indicated tangible growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -5.7% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when imports increased by 31% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $16.7B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Canada (5.2M tons), followed by Russia (3.3M tons), the United Arab Emirates (2.8M tons), Norway (2.6M tons), India (2M tons), Malaysia (1.8M tons), South Africa (1.8M tons) and Iceland (1.6M tons) were the major importers of alumina, together generating 67% of total imports. China (1.4M tons) and the United States (1.1M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Malaysia (with a CAGR of +11.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest alumina importing markets worldwide were Canada ($2.2B), Russia ($1.4B) and Norway ($1.2B), with a combined 31% share of global imports. The United Arab Emirates, India, Malaysia, China, Iceland, South Africa and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +11.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average alumina import price amounted to $497 per ton, with an increase of 8.6% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 an increase of 29%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($579 per ton), while South Africa ($366 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Norway (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Alumina

Global alumina exports declined slightly to 35M tons in 2024, shrinking by -4.7% against the year before. Over the period under review, exports showed a slight slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 32% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 41M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, alumina exports surged to $17.2B in 2024. Overall, total exports indicated moderate growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 47% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $18B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Australia was the main exporter of alumina in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 15M tons, which was approx. 42% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by Brazil (7.4M tons), India (2.1M tons), China (1.8M tons) and Ireland (1.7M tons), together achieving a 37% share of total exports. The following exporters - Indonesia (1,393K tons), Jamaica (1,008K tons), Kazakhstan (949K tons) and Spain (629K tons) - together made up 11% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +137.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Australia ($6.9B) remains the largest alumina supplier worldwide, comprising 40% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Brazil ($3.4B), with a 20% share of global exports. It was followed by China, with a 6.2% share.

In Australia, alumina exports increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Brazil (+5.8% per year) and China (+24.5% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average alumina export price stood at $491 per ton in 2024, increasing by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a temperate expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, alumina export price increased by +49.3% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 33% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($593 per ton), while Indonesia ($322 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.