Oct 12, 2019

World - Soya Beans - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights

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Sep 18, 2018

Global Soybean Market - China Drives Global Consumption Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report "World: Soya Beans - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2025". Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Soybean is widely used both in animal feeding and human consumption, with soyfeed taking the larger part of consumption. For human consumption such products as soy oil, soy milk, soy flour, soy protein, tofu and many retail food products are made. In 2017, the volume of the global soybean consumption stood at approx. 358M tons, moving 6% up from the 2016 figure.

The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010, when consumption increased by 22% from the previous year level. Overall, soybean demand indicated a remarkable growth from 2007 to 2017: the total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last ten years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Based on the result of 2017, global soybean consumption increased by +47.4% against its level of 2012. 

Over the period under review, global soybean consumption reached its maximum volume in 2017, and is likely to continue its growth in the near future. The consumption is strengthening due to the growing interest in meat substitutes in western countries and increasing demand for meat products in Asia as the population and per capita consumption are surging and intensifying urbanization. The soybean revenue, however, has been subject to some serious fluctuations that correlated majorly with price changes.

In a break down by country, China (106M tons), the U.S. (70M tonnes), Argentina (53M tonnes), with a combined share of 64% dominated the total consumption of soybeans in 2017. India, Brazil and Russia together accounted for a further 18%. Chinese consumption are growing due to high population and income growth rates and thus increasing meat consumption; moreover, in China, approx. 44% of all the oil consumed is made of soybeans. India feature somewhat similar trends – besides rising population,  the market there is expanding largely due to poultry feed demand growth. 

According to IndexBox forecasts, soybean demand will be strengthening in the following 7-8 years. This assumption is based on the growing figures of Asian and global population, meat consumption expansion and a growing popularity for soyproducts and biodiesel in the US. At the same time, the market is subject to serious changes in soybean prices due to the ongoing trade disparities between the US and China, including the recent 25% tariffs for US soybean implemented by China. Therefore, discounting some major drops and booms that are possible in the future, it is projected that the performance of the global market is forecast to attain a moderate growth. Thus, the volume of consumption is set to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% from 2018 to 2025 to a figure of 459M tons in 2025.

IndexBox analysts expect that one of the crucial initiatives to be considered by local producers in the long run would be the search for new overseas markets. Our analysts developed a step-by-step algorithm for solving this problem, based on the use of big data, which are processed by the IndexBox AI Platform. The decision-making logic is shown in the figure below.

In the process of determining the best export prospects, it is necessary to answer four key questions:

1. Which markets performed best in terms of soybean sales in the last 10 years? 
And which markets were among the outsiders? 
2. Which countries are the most promising, in terms of soybeans consumption growth, and which ones are already saturated? 
3. In which countries are local producers unable to satisfy the increasing demand for soybeans? Or, in some cases, which countries do not produce soybeans, at all?
4. Which markets are the most profitable for soybeans producers? 

Previously, in order to answer these questions, analysts would need at least 6 weeks and over 400 sources of information. Today, using only one tool - the IB AI-platform, you can answer this question in less than 5 minutes. 

So, here is the first chart and the first question: Which markets performed best in terms of soybean sales growth in the last 10 years and reached high figures in 2017? And which markets were among the outsiders? Here we will compare the volumes of consumption and growth rates for all the countries under review.

We can see that our target is represented by large and growing markets, such as China (106M tonnes) and the U.S. (70M tonnes). Russia (5.6M tonnes), Indonesia and Bolivia (3.4M tonnes each) also constituted the largest markets in 2017, but they are far smaller than the Russian and the US one. On the other hand, Argentina (53M tonnes), Brazil (46M tonnes), India (14M tonnes), Mexico (4.6M tonnes) and Paraguay (4M tonnes) were also among the world largest, but they have not been expanding in the past 10 years. 

Next question: Which countries are the most promising, in terms of soybean consumption growth, and which ones are already sufficiently saturated?Here we estimate the average per capita consumption in 2017 and its dynamics since 2007. 

The chart enables identifying markets with a large and growing average per capita consumption. This group includes Bolivia (306 kg per person) and the U.S. (215 kg per person), also China, Canada and the Ukraine. In these countries soybean demand is high, however it is also a sign that these markets are close to saturation. Whereas if we take relatively small but rising markets, such as Russia (39 kg per person), Turkey (31 kg per person), France , South Africa and Viet Nam, we would come up with unsaturated markets that have a great potential for expansion. 

In the third step, the question is the following: In which countries are local producers unable to satisfy the increasing demand for soybeans if they produce it at all? Further, our task is to identify countries with a high share of imports, which will testify of the existing infrastructure for importers and market prospects for organizing new supplies. 

The diagram shows that China with 94M tons of soybeans imported in 2017 is by far the largest importing market that has been growing rapidly for the past 10 years. Thailand (3.2M tonnes), Russia (2.3M tonnes), Turkey (2.3M tonnes) and Viet Nam (1.6M tonnes) are also among large and growing importers. The Netherlands (4.7M tonnes) alongside with Spain Mexico (4.1M tonnes), Spain (3.3M tonnes), Germany (3.1M tonnes) and Japan (3M tonnes) have imports growth remaining quite slow or even negative, compared to the leading countries. 

Finally, basing on the counties left after our selection process, we will find markets with high and growing import prices to identify the most profitable ones to exports to.

These countries include Japan ($499 per tonne), Indonesia ($435 per tonne), Germany ($416 per tonne), Turkey ($416 per tonne) and Mexico ($411 per tonne). Nonetheless, despite somewhat lower CAGR of import price, Taiwan ($426 per tonne) and Thailand ($419 per tonne) can also be an option; it’s just that their prices aren’t growing as fast relatively.  

Comparing the results of the 4 diagrams, we can state that Japan, Indonesia, Germany, Turkey and Mexico now appear to be the most promising markets for foreign suppliers of soybeans in the world. In these countries, there is either a significant or rapidly growing volume of imports and consumption. Moreover, import prices in these countries remain relatively high. 

Using the IB AI-platform you can perform such an analysis and many other operations yourself. Our specialists will be happy to answer questions. It's our job to help you make informed decisions. 

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Product coverage:
• FCL 236 - Soybeans

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global soya bean market. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2025.



Data coverage:
• Market volume and value
• Per Capita consumption
• Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
• Production in World, split by region and country
• Trade (exports and imports) in World
• Export and import prices
• Market trends, drivers and restraints
• Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:
• Take advantage of the latest data
• Find deeper insights into current market developments
• Discover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
2. How to load your idle production capacity
3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
4. How to increase your profit margins
5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
7. How to outsource production to other countries
8. How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

1.1
REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
1.3
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1.4
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

2.1
KEY FINDINGS
2.2
MARKET TRENDS
3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

3.1
MARKET SIZE
3.2
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
3.3
MARKET FORECAST TO 2025
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

4.1
TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
4.2
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
4.3
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4.4
MOST TRADED PRODUCT
4.5
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

5.1
TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
5.2
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
5.3
COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
5.4
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5.5
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

6.1
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
6.2
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
6.3
UNSATURATED MARKETS
6.4
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
6.5
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

7.1
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
7.2
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
7.3
HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS

The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

8.1
IMPORTS FROM 2007–2018
8.2
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
8.3
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS

The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

9.1
EXPORTS FROM 2007–2018
9.2
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
9.3
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

United States
China
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Brazil
Italy
Russian Federation
India
Canada
Australia
Republic of Korea
Spain
Mexico
Indonesia
Netherlands
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
Sweden
Nigeria
Poland
Belgium
Argentina
Norway
Austria
Thailand
United Arab Emirates
Colombia
Denmark
South Africa
Malaysia
Israel
Singapore
Egypt
Philippines
Finland
Chile
Ireland
Pakistan
Greece
Portugal
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Czech Republic
Qatar
Peru
Romania
Vietnam
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:
Key Findings In 2018
Table 2:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2018
Table 3:
Market Value, 2007–2018
Table 4:
Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2015–2018
Table 5:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2018
Table 6:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2007-2018
Table 7:
Yield, By Country, 2007-2018
Table 8:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2018
Table 9:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2018
Table 10:
Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2007–2018
Table 11:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2018
Table 12:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2018
Table 13:
Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2007–2018
Table 14:
Producer Prices, By Major Producing Country, 2018
Table 15:
Producer Prices Index - Annual Data (2004-2006=100), By Major Producing Country
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2018
Figure 2:
Market Value, 2007–2018
Figure 3:
Consumption, By Country, 2018
Figure 4:
Market Forecast To 2025
Figure 5:
Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Figure 6:
Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Figure 7:
Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Figure 8:
Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Figure 9:
Production Volume And Growth
Figure 10:
Yield And Growth
Figure 11:
Exports And Growth
Figure 12:
Export Prices And Growth
Figure 13:
Market Size And Growth
Figure 14:
Per Capita Consumption
Figure 15:
Imports And Growth
Figure 16:
Import Prices
Figure 17:
Production, In Physical Terms, 2007–2018
Figure 18:
Production, In Value Terms, 2007–2018
Figure 19:
Area Harvested, 2007–2018
Figure 20:
Yield, 2007–2018
Figure 21:
Production, By Country, 2018
Figure 22:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2018
Figure 23:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2018
Figure 24:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2007-2018
Figure 25:
Yield, By Country, 2007-2018
Figure 26:
Imports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2018
Figure 27:
Imports, In Value Terms, 2007–2018
Figure 28:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2018
Figure 29:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2018
Figure 30:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2018
Figure 31:
Import Prices, By Country, 2007–2018
Figure 32:
Exports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2018
Figure 33:
Exports, In Value Terms, 2007–2018
Figure 34:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2018
Figure 35:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2018
Figure 36:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2018
Figure 37:
Export Prices, 2007–2018
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