Skim Powdered Milk Market

The global skim powdered milk market is projected to see steady growth in both consumption and production volumes. The market is expected to expand with a CAGR of +2.1% in volume and +4.7% in value terms from 2022 to 2030. The top consuming and producing countries include Brazil, China, the United States, and the Netherlands. The largest exporting country is the United States, while the largest importer is China. The average skim powdered milk import price increased by 23% in 2022, while the export price grew by 26% during the same period.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for skim powdered milk worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 6.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $30B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Skim Powdered Milk

In 2022, the amount of skim powdered milk consumed worldwide expanded remarkably to 5.5M tons, growing by 6.6% compared with the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

The global skim powdered milk market revenue expanded remarkably to $20.8B in 2022, with an increase of 12% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Brazil (695K tons), China (348K tons) and the United States (347K tons), with a combined 25% share of global consumption. India, Mexico, the Netherlands, Indonesia, Germany, the Philippines, Italy, France, Algeria and Japan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +27.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($3.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($1.4B). It was followed by China.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in India totaled +9.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (-1.4% per year) and China (+9.0% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of skim powdered milk per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (14 kg per person), followed by Brazil (3.2 kg per person), Italy (3.1 kg per person) and Algeria (2.9 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of skim powdered milk was estimated at less than 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the skim powdered milk per capita consumption in the Netherlands stood at +27.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Brazil (-0.4% per year) and Italy (+9.8% per year).

Production

World Production of Skim Powdered Milk

In 2022, the amount of skim powdered milk produced worldwide rose slightly to 5.5M tons, picking up by 5% compared with the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 10%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, skim powdered milk production stood at $23B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 26%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $23.4B. From 2020 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (1.2M tons), Brazil (671K tons) and Germany (425K tons), with a combined 41% share of global production. New Zealand, France, India, the Netherlands, Ireland, Australia, Poland, Belgium, Belarus and Japan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +582.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Skim Powdered Milk

After two years of decline, supplies from abroad of skim powdered milk increased by 1.4% to 3.1M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 3.2M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, skim powdered milk imports soared to $11.1B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a temperate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +80.3% against 2016 indices. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

China (349K tons), Mexico (284K tons), Indonesia (215K tons), the Philippines (189K tons), the Netherlands (182K tons), Algeria (132K tons), Malaysia (124K tons), Belgium (112K tons), Italy (89K tons), Vietnam (87K tons), Poland (72K tons) and Germany (69K tons) represented roughly 61% of total imports in 2022. Egypt (64K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +14.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest skim powdered milk importing markets worldwide were China ($1.4B), Mexico ($1.1B) and Indonesia ($860M), together accounting for 30% of global imports. The Philippines, the Netherlands, Malaysia, Algeria, Vietnam, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Germany and Egypt lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Poland, with a CAGR of +15.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average skim powdered milk import price stood at $3,566 per ton in 2022, picking up by 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated modest growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, skim powdered milk import price increased by +73.1% against 2018 indices. Global import price peaked at $3,934 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in China ($4,024 per ton) and Indonesia ($3,998 per ton), while Belgium ($2,695 per ton) and Algeria ($2,775 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+4.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Skim Powdered Milk

In 2022, global skim powdered milk exports reduced to 3.2M tons, almost unchanged from 2021 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 12%. The global exports peaked at 3.2M tons in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, skim powdered milk exports skyrocketed to $12B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +105.1% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 29%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the United States (837K tons), distantly followed by New Zealand (357K tons), Germany (293K tons), France (229K tons), Belgium (204K tons), Ireland (170K tons), the Netherlands (160K tons) and Australia (155K tons) were the main exporters of skim powdered milk, together generating 75% of total exports. Poland (127K tons), Belarus (117K tons), Sweden (53K tons) and the UK (48K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to skim powdered milk exports from the United States stood at +6.5%. At the same time, Ireland (+13.8%), Sweden (+7.8%), the UK (+7.5%), the Netherlands (+5.4%), Poland (+5.1%), Belarus (+4.4%) and Belgium (+2.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Ireland emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +13.8% from 2012-2022. Germany, France and Australia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, New Zealand (-1.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The United States (+7.5 p.p.) and Ireland (+3.4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while France, Australia, Germany and New Zealand saw its share reduced by -2.1%, -2.3%, -2.7% and -5.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($3.1B) remains the largest skim powdered milk supplier worldwide, comprising 26% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by New Zealand ($1.4B), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 9.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States amounted to +8.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: New Zealand (+1.2% per year) and Germany (+2.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average skim powdered milk export price stood at $3,751 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 26% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, skim powdered milk export price increased by +89.6% against 2018 indices. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $3,838 per ton in 2014; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Australia ($4,792 per ton) and New Zealand ($3,961 per ton), while Belarus ($3,479 per ton) and Belgium ($3,582 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+4.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform