Nitrates Market

The global nitrates market is expected to experience continued growth in consumption driven by increasing demand worldwide. Market performance is forecast to expand with a CAGR of +4.3% in volume and +6.0% in value from 2022 to 2030. In 2022, global consumption reached 3M tons, with the United States, China, and India as the highest consuming countries. Production showed a buoyant expansion in 2017 but declined in the following years. The United States, France, and Germany were major importers, while China and Norway were key exporters. Prices varied by country, with the average export price reaching $676 per ton in 2022.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for nitrates (excluding those of potassium) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.2M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $5.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Nitrates (Excluding Those Of Potassium)

In 2022, the amount of nitrates (excluding those of potassium) consumed worldwide rose to 3M tons, growing by 2.8% compared with the previous year's figure. In general, consumption recorded resilient growth. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 3.3M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global nitrates market value totaled $3.5B in 2022, growing by 5.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption enjoyed a prominent increase. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $3.9B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (602K tons), the United States (402K tons) and India (252K tons), with a combined 42% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +14.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($544M), Brazil ($340M) and China ($282M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 33% of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the United States, with a CAGR of +16.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of nitrates per capita consumption in 2022 were Russia (1,517 kg per 1000 persons), Canada (1,443 kg per 1000 persons) and the United States (1,199 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +13.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Nitrates (Excluding Those Of Potassium)

In 2022, production of nitrates (excluding those of potassium) was finally on the rise to reach 3M tons after two years of decline. Over the period under review, production showed a buoyant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume at 3.3M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, nitrates production reached $3.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production enjoyed a resilient increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 40%. Global production peaked at $4.7B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (851K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of nitrates production, accounting for 28% of total volume. Moreover, nitrates production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (323K tons), threefold. India (245K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with an 8.2% share.

In China, nitrates production expanded at an average annual rate of +7.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+16.1% per year) and India (+7.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Nitrates (Excluding Those Of Potassium)

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of nitrates (excluding those of potassium), when their volume decreased by -14.2% to 708K tons. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 17%. Global imports peaked at 826K tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, nitrates imports surged to $552M in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (99K tons), followed by France (63K tons), Germany (38K tons) and Australia (36K tons) were the major importers of nitrates (excluding those of potassium), together making up 33% of total imports. The following importers - Italy (28K tons), Japan (25K tons), Thailand (23K tons), Canada (23K tons), South Korea (22K tons), Spain (21K tons), South Africa (20K tons), Mexico (19K tons) and the UK (18K tons) - together made up 28% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +12.9%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($34M), Germany ($32M) and France ($31M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 18% of global imports. Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, South Africa, Thailand, Italy, the UK, Mexico and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

The UK, with a CAGR of +11.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average nitrates import price stood at $780 per ton in 2022, picking up by 47% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($1,321 per ton), while the United States ($339 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+7.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Nitrates (Excluding Those Of Potassium)

In 2022, shipments abroad of nitrates (excluding those of potassium) decreased by -10.3% to 730K tons, falling for the second year in a row after four years of growth. In general, total exports indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -18.5% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 39%. The global exports peaked at 895K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, nitrates exports surged to $493M in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (251K tons) and Norway (221K tons) represented the key exporters of nitrates (excluding those of potassium)around the world, together finishing at near 65% of total exports. The Netherlands (43K tons) took a 6% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Poland (5.8%). The following exporters - Malaysia (32K tons), Belgium (21K tons), the United States (20K tons), Spain (20K tons) and Russia (14K tons) - together made up 15% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Malaysia (with a CAGR of +22.4%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest nitrates supplying countries worldwide were China ($124M), Norway ($67M) and Belgium ($38M), with a combined 47% share of global exports. Poland, the United States, Spain, Malaysia, Russia and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

Among the main exporting countries, Malaysia, with a CAGR of +25.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average nitrates export price stood at $676 per ton in 2022, surging by 32% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($1,829 per ton), while Norway ($304 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+8.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform