Nickel Ore Market

The global nickel ore market is expected to see growth in both volume and value over the next eight years, with consumption and production trends analyzed. China, Indonesia, and the Philippines are key players in the market, with fluctuations in import and export prices observed.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for nickel ore worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +5.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 116M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $29.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Nickel Ores And Concentrates

Global nickel ore consumption reduced to 77M tons in 2022, which is down by -6.1% against 2021. Over the period under review, consumption saw a mild descent. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 101M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global nickel ore market value rose slightly to $19B in 2022, growing by 2.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption continues to indicate a slight decline. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $26B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (40M tons), Indonesia (20M tons) and the Philippines (4.2M tons), together comprising 84% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Indonesia (with a CAGR of +10.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the consumption figures.

In value terms, China ($4B), Indonesia ($2.6B) and Japan ($284M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 36% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Indonesia, with a CAGR of +9.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the market figures.

The countries with the highest levels of nickel ore per capita consumption in 2022 were Guatemala (74 kg per person), Indonesia (72 kg per person) and South Korea (51 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +8.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Nickel Ores And Concentrates

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in production of nickel ores and concentrates, when its volume decreased by -7.2% to 72M tons. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the production volume increased by 45% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 77M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, nickel ore production reached $23.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The Philippines (43M tons) remains the largest nickel ore producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 60% of total volume. Moreover, nickel ore production in the Philippines exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Indonesia (20M tons), twofold.

In the Philippines, nickel ore production expanded at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+9.0% per year) and Guatemala (+1.4% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Nickel Ores And Concentrates

In 2022, global nickel ore imports contracted to 46M tons, falling by -9.9% compared with 2021. Overall, imports recorded a noticeable curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 28%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 81M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, nickel ore imports expanded sharply to $6.3B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 45%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $6.9B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

China dominates imports structure, finishing at 40M tons, which was near 86% of total imports in 2022. South Korea (2.7M tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Japan (2.5M tons). All these countries together took near 11% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to nickel ore imports into China stood at -4.4%. At the same time, South Korea (+6.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, South Korea emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +6.1% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Japan (-6.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of South Korea (+3.7 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($4.5B) constitutes the largest market for imported nickel ores and concentrates worldwide, comprising 72% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by South Korea ($382M), with a 6.1% share of global imports.

In China, nickel ore imports decreased by an average annual rate of -1.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: South Korea (+10.3% per year) and Japan (-2.0% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average nickel ore import price amounted to $136 per ton, jumping by 18% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, nickel ore import price increased by +123.8% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 35%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($144 per ton), while China ($113 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Japan (+4.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Nickel Ores And Concentrates

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in shipments abroad of nickel ores and concentrates, when their volume decreased by -12.1% to 41M tons. In general, total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when exports increased by 64%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 51M tons. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, nickel ore exports expanded modestly to $5.9B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a temperate expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 44% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The Philippines dominates exports structure, resulting at 39M tons, which was approx. 93% of total exports in 2022. Guatemala (1.7M tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to nickel ore exports from the Philippines stood at +3.0%. At the same time, Guatemala (+25.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Guatemala emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +25.2% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Guatemala increased by +3.4 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Philippines ($1.3B) remains the largest nickel ore supplier worldwide, comprising 21% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Guatemala ($60M), with a 1% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the Philippines amounted to +6.7%.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average nickel ore export price amounted to $142 per ton, growing by 18% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average export price increased by 78% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Guatemala ($36 per ton), while the Philippines stood at $33 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+3.7%).

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform