Gear Box Market

The global gear box market is expected to show continued growth with an anticipated CAGR of +5.3% in volume and +7.4% in value from 2022 to 2030. China, the United States, and India are the top consumers, while China, Japan, and India lead in production. Germany, Japan, and the United States are the major exporters. Import prices varied, with the United States having the highest price per unit. Overall, the market is projected to reach 20B units and $227.5B in value by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for gear boxes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +5.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 20B units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +7.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $227.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Gear Boxes

In 2022, consumption of gear boxes decreased by -0.2% to 13B units, falling for the third consecutive year after eight years of growth. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -6.2% against 2019 indices. Global consumption peaked at 14B units in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global gear box market size amounted to $128.9B in 2022, surging by 2.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, posted a strong expansion. Global consumption peaked at $133.9B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (3.5B units) remains the largest gear box consuming country worldwide, accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, gear box consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (1.4B units), twofold. The United States (1.3B units) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 9.4% share.

In China, gear box consumption increased at an average annual rate of +12.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+11.8% per year) and the United States (+9.7% per year).

In value terms, the largest gear box markets worldwide were the United States ($30.1B), China ($25.9B) and India ($8.8B), with a combined 50% share of the global market.

The United States, with a CAGR of +12.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of gear box per capita consumption in 2022 were Italy (5.1 units per person), Argentina (4.8 units per person) and Germany (4.7 units per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +12.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Gear Boxes

In 2022, production of gear boxes decreased by -0.7% to 14B units, falling for the second year in a row after nine years of growth. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a resilient expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 39%. Global production peaked at 14B units in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, gear box production expanded modestly to $136.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded buoyant growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 31%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level at $139.1B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (3.2B units), Japan (1.9B units) and India (1.4B units), together comprising 47% of global production. The United States, Germany, Indonesia, South Korea, Brazil, Pakistan, Mexico, Italy and France lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Mexico (with a CAGR of +27.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Gear Boxes

In 2022, supplies from abroad of gear boxes increased by 3.1% to 5.7B units, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 7.2B units in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, gear box imports reached $68.6B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 15%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $75.7B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

Germany (634M units), China (566M units), Mexico (454M units), the United States (323M units), Brazil (249M units), Belgium (246M units), Thailand (224M units), France (205M units), Spain (197M units), Slovakia (197M units), Romania (173M units) and Canada (168M units) represented roughly 64% of total imports in 2022. The Czech Republic (167M units) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Romania (with a CAGR of +20.6%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($11.1B), China ($9.8B) and Germany ($5.8B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 39% share of global imports. Mexico, Brazil, Spain, Thailand, Canada, Belgium, Slovakia, Romania, France and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

Romania, with a CAGR of +22.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average gear box import price amounted to $12 per unit, falling by -2.6% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the average import price increased by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $12 per unit in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($34 per unit), while France ($7.6 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+11.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Gear Boxes

In 2022, overseas shipments of gear boxes increased by 1.6% to 6.1B units, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 6.7B units in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, gear box exports dropped modestly to $68.5B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $72.2B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Japan (1.4B units) and Germany (1.3B units) represented roughly 45% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by South Korea (423M units), Mexico (422M units) and China (315M units), together achieving a 19% share of total exports. France (258M units), the United States (190M units), Romania (173M units), Belgium (160M units), Italy (146M units), India (114M units), Hungary (111M units) and Canada (107M units) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Belgium (with a CAGR of +26.0%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($16.2B), Japan ($14.7B) and the United States ($7.5B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 56% share of global exports. Mexico, South Korea, China, France, Romania, Belgium, Italy, Canada, Hungary and India lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Romania, with a CAGR of +25.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average gear box export price stood at $11 per unit in 2022, reducing by -4.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 an increase of 9.4%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $12 per unit in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($39 per unit), while India ($5.6 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+12.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform