Flaked or Rolled Cereal Market

The global flaked or rolled cereal market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of +3.8% from 2022 to 2030, reaching 40M tons by the end of 2030. The market value is expected to increase to $55.1B by 2030. China, the United States, and India are the top consuming countries, while Canada and Argentina are the largest exporters. Import prices are on the rise, with noticeable fluctuations in export volumes over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for flaked or rolled cereals worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 40M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $55.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Flaked or Rolled Cereals

Global flaked or rolled cereal consumption stood at 30M tons in 2022, with an increase of 3.1% against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -3.0% against 2020 indices. Global consumption peaked at 30M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global flaked or rolled cereal market size rose markedly to $33.3B in 2022, increasing by 8.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption posted a resilient expansion. Global consumption peaked at $34.9B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (4.6M tons), the United States (2.6M tons) and India (1.7M tons), with a combined 30% share of global consumption. Japan, Russia, Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, Ethiopia and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Ethiopia (with a CAGR of +12.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($8.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by China ($3.5B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Japan stood at +8.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+7.2% per year) and the United States (+8.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of flaked or rolled cereal per capita consumption in 2022 were Japan (9.9 kg per person), the United States (7.8 kg per person) and Russia (6.9 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Pakistan (with a CAGR of +9.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Flaked or Rolled Cereals

In 2022, the amount of flaked or rolled cereals produced worldwide reached 29M tons, picking up by 2.7% against 2021. Over the period under review, the total production indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -2.8% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 30M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal production reached $29.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -2.0% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $30B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (4.6M tons) remains the largest flaked or rolled cereal producing country worldwide, accounting for 15% of total volume. Moreover, flaked or rolled cereal production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (2.2M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (1.7M tons), with a 5.7% share.

In China, flaked or rolled cereal production expanded at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+6.8% per year) and India (+5.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Flaked or Rolled Cereals

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded growth in supplies from abroad of flaked or rolled cereals, which increased by 1.6% to 3.5M tons in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a noticeable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +10.2% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal imports surged to $2.5B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +93.4% against 2012 indices. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (684K tons), distantly followed by Uruguay (372K tons), the Netherlands (277K tons) and Chile (175K tons) represented the key importers of flaked or rolled cereals, together constituting 43% of total imports. Germany (121K tons), China (111K tons), Japan (91K tons), Iraq (87K tons), Ireland (86K tons), Mexico (82K tons), France (65K tons), Poland (57K tons) and Italy (53K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +53.8%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($560M) constitutes the largest market for imported flaked or rolled cereals worldwide, comprising 23% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Netherlands ($163M), with a 6.6% share of global imports. It was followed by China, with a 4.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States amounted to +15.7%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the Netherlands (+5.0% per year) and China (+56.7% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average flaked or rolled cereal import price stood at $707 per ton in 2022, rising by 23% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($1,044 per ton), while Uruguay ($254 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Japan (+4.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Flaked or Rolled Cereals

In 2022, approx. 3.5M tons of flaked or rolled cereals were exported worldwide; remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +24.5% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 36% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 3.5M tons in 2021, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal exports soared to $2.3B in 2022. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 22% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

Canada (497K tons) and Argentina (495K tons) were the largest exporters of flaked or rolled cereals in 2022, accounting for approx. 14% and 14% of total exports, respectively. Turkey (277K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with an 8% share, followed by Chile (6.5%), the United States (6.5%), Germany (6.3%) and Australia (5.1%). Belgium (139K tons), Russia (133K tons), the Czech Republic (99K tons), the UK (91K tons), Denmark (84K tons) and Poland (57K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Chile (with a CAGR of +53.7%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Canada ($467M) remains the largest flaked or rolled cereal supplier worldwide, comprising 21% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($178M), with a 7.8% share of global exports. It was followed by the United States, with a 6.9% share.

In Canada, flaked or rolled cereal exports increased at an average annual rate of +13.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Germany (+5.1% per year) and the United States (+3.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average flaked or rolled cereal export price stood at $652 per ton in 2022, jumping by 18% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($1,181 per ton), while Argentina ($223 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic (+8.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform