Ethylene Oxide Market

The article analyzes the growth trends in the global oxirane (ethylene oxide) market, with projections indicating an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecasted to expand with a CAGR of +2.7% from 2022 to 2030, with market volume reaching 25M tons by 2030. China leads in both consumption and production of ethylene oxide, with significant growth rates. The article also covers import and export trends, with Germany and the Netherlands being key players in ethylene oxide trade.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for oxirane (ethylene oxide) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 25M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $65.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Oxirane (Ethylene Oxide)

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in consumption of oxirane (ethylene oxide), when its volume decreased by -3.8% to 20M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 8.3%. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 21M tons, and then declined in the following year.

The global ethylene oxide market size shrank modestly to $53.2B in 2022, waning by -3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $54.8B in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (5.8M tons) remains the largest ethylene oxide consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 28% of total volume. Moreover, ethylene oxide consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (2.9M tons), twofold. Saudi Arabia (1.8M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with an 8.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +11.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+0.2% per year) and Saudi Arabia (-0.0% per year).

In value terms, the largest ethylene oxide markets worldwide were China ($15.2B), the United States ($14.7B) and Saudi Arabia ($5.7B), together comprising 67% of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +10.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of ethylene oxide per capita consumption was registered in Kuwait (174 kg per person), followed by Belgium (70 kg per person), Saudi Arabia (50 kg per person) and Taiwan (Chinese) (34 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of ethylene oxide was estimated at 2.6 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the ethylene oxide per capita consumption in Kuwait was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Belgium (-0.5% per year) and Saudi Arabia (-2.1% per year).

Production

World Production of Oxirane (Ethylene Oxide)

In 2022, production of oxirane (ethylene oxide) decreased by -3.8% to 20M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 8.2%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 21M tons, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, ethylene oxide production declined slightly to $124.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -4.1% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the production volume increased by 17%. Global production peaked at $130B in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of ethylene oxide production was China (5.8M tons), accounting for 28% of total volume. Moreover, ethylene oxide production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (2.9M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Saudi Arabia (1.8M tons), with an 8.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China totaled +11.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+0.1% per year) and Saudi Arabia (-0.0% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Oxirane (Ethylene Oxide)

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in purchases abroad of oxirane (ethylene oxide), when their volume decreased by -11.6% to 358K tons. In general, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 14%. Global imports peaked at 405K tons in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, ethylene oxide imports reduced slightly to $550M in 2022. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 35% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $621M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (94K tons), Italy (82K tons) and Belgium (74K tons) was the largest importer of oxirane (ethylene oxide) in the world, achieving 70% of total import. France (23K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Slovakia (17K tons). All these countries together held near 11% share of total imports. The UK (13K tons) and Poland (12K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +5.3%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($129M), Italy ($126M) and Belgium ($105M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 66% of global imports. France, the UK, Slovakia and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 19%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +4.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average ethylene oxide import price amounted to $1,536 per ton, growing by 9.9% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $1,714 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the UK ($1,907 per ton) and France ($1,588 per ton), while Germany ($1,380 per ton) and Belgium ($1,430 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+1.2%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Oxirane (Ethylene Oxide)

After two years of growth, overseas shipments of oxirane (ethylene oxide) decreased by -9.1% to 334K tons in 2022. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 9.5%. The global exports peaked at 368K tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, ethylene oxide exports reached $504M in 2022. In general, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 22% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $576M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Germany was the largest exporting country with an export of about 150K tons, which finished at 45% of total exports. The Netherlands (91K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 27% share, followed by Belgium (20%) and Russia (5.3%).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +7.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ethylene oxide supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($226M), the Netherlands ($135M) and Belgium ($99M), together comprising 91% of global exports.

Belgium, with a CAGR of +5.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

Export Prices By Country

The average ethylene oxide export price stood at $1,508 per ton in 2022, growing by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 21%. The global export price peaked at $1,679 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($1,508 per ton), while Russia ($812 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (-0.6%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform