Cobalt ore Market

The article discusses the rise in demand for cobalt ores worldwide, with projections indicating continued growth in consumption over the next eight years. Market performance is expected to increase with a CAGR of +4.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, reaching 23M tons in volume and $607.5B in value by 2030. Congo leads in both consumption and production, while China dominates imports. Prices have seen fluctuations, with different countries exhibiting varied growth rates.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cobalt ores worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 23M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $607.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cobalt Ore

In 2022, global consumption of cobalt ores declined to 16M tons, which is down by -7.8% compared with 2021 figures. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a noticeable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +8.7% against 2020 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 17M tons, and then shrank in the following year.

The global cobalt ore market size reduced to $431.8B in 2022, which is down by -7.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $464.8B, and then dropped in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of cobalt ore consumption was Congo (11M tons), comprising approx. 69% of total volume. Moreover, cobalt ore consumption in Congo exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Russia (727K tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Australia (561K tons), with a 3.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Congo totaled +7.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+1.5% per year) and Australia (-0.4% per year).

In value terms, the largest cobalt ore markets worldwide were Russia ($231.7B), Congo ($148.6B) and Australia ($9.5B), together accounting for 90% of the global market. Canada, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cuba, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea and Morocco lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 5.9%.

Papua New Guinea, with a CAGR of +24.6%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of cobalt ore per capita consumption was registered in Congo (1,880 kg per person), followed by Cuba (34 kg per person), Papua New Guinea (32 kg per person) and Australia (21 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of cobalt ore was estimated at 2 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the cobalt ore per capita consumption in Congo totaled +5.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Cuba (-1.9% per year) and Papua New Guinea (+17.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Cobalt Ore

In 2022, global production of cobalt ores contracted to 16M tons, with a decrease of -7.7% on the previous year. Overall, the total production indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +9.1% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 18% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 17M tons, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, cobalt ore production shrank to $267.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production faced a sharp reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 110% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $3,395.5B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of cobalt ore production was Congo (11M tons), accounting for 69% of total volume. Moreover, cobalt ore production in Congo exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Russia (728K tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Democratic Republic of the Congo (589K tons), with a 3.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Congo stood at +7.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+1.4% per year) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (+2.8% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Cobalt Ore

In 2022, purchases abroad of cobalt ores was finally on the rise to reach 41K tons after three years of decline. Overall, imports, however, recorded a deep setback. Global imports peaked at 286K tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, cobalt ore imports skyrocketed to $225M in 2022. In general, imports, however, saw a drastic downturn. Global imports peaked at $954M in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

China was the main importer of cobalt ores in the world, with the volume of imports amounting to 26K tons, which was approx. 64% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Morocco (10K tons), committing a 24% share of total imports. The following importers - Finland (1.3K tons) and the United Arab Emirates (0.9K tons) - together made up 5.6% of total imports.

Imports into China decreased at an average annual rate of -17.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Morocco (+82.0%) and the United Arab Emirates (+48.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Morocco emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +82.0% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Finland (-15.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Morocco (+24 p.p.) and the United Arab Emirates (+2.3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while China saw its share reduced by -2.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($140M) constitutes the largest market for imported cobalt ores worldwide, comprising 62% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Morocco ($27M), with a 12% share of global imports. It was followed by Finland, with a 7.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China stood at -9.3%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Morocco (+83.5% per year) and Finland (-8.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average cobalt ore import price stood at $5,530 per ton in 2022, falling by -2% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a strong expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average import price increased by 123%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $5,645 per ton, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Finland ($12,688 per ton), while Morocco ($2,655 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+9.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cobalt Ore

In 2022, after four years of decline, there was significant growth in overseas shipments of cobalt ores, when their volume increased by 471% to 37K tons. Overall, exports, however, recorded a abrupt downturn. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 281K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, cobalt ore exports skyrocketed to $241M in 2022. In general, exports, however, saw a abrupt decline. The global exports peaked at $655M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Democratic Republic of the Congo dominates exports structure, accounting for 31K tons, which was near 82% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Belgium (2K tons), mixing up a 5.3% share of total exports. Austria (1,310 tons), Italy (926 tons) and South Africa (744 tons) took a minor share of total exports.

Exports from Democratic Republic of the Congo decreased at an average annual rate of -18.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Italy (+60.7%), Belgium (+18.5%) and Austria (+3.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Italy emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +60.7% from 2012-2022. By contrast, South Africa (-13.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Belgium (+5.2 p.p.), Austria (+3.2 p.p.) and Italy (+2.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Democratic Republic of the Congo saw its share reduced by -10% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Democratic Republic of the Congo ($183M) emerged as the largest cobalt ore supplier worldwide, comprising 76% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Austria ($16M), with a 6.8% share of global exports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 2.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Democratic Republic of the Congo amounted to -10.3%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Austria (+11.4% per year) and Belgium (+24.9% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average cobalt ore export price stood at $6,449 per ton in 2022, falling by -8.7% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, enjoyed buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average export price increased by 53%. The global export price peaked at $7,062 per ton in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Austria ($12,521 per ton), while Italy ($2,429 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+16.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform