Casein And Caseinates Market

The global market for casein and caseinates is projected to see continued growth over the next decade, with a forecasted rise in consumption volume and market value. The market is expected to experience an upward trend, with a forecasted CAGR of +3.1% for consumption volume and +5.2% for market value from 2022 to 2030. Key importing and exporting countries include China, the United States, New Zealand, and Ireland. The article also highlights trends in production, import and export volumes, as well as pricing fluctuations over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for casein and caseinates worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.2M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Casein And Caseinates

In 2022, consumption of casein and caseinates was finally on the rise to reach 926K tons after two years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 929K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global casein and caseinates market size rose markedly to $6.7B in 2022, growing by 8.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $6.8B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (163K tons), the United States (95K tons) and India (47K tons), together accounting for 33% of global consumption. Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Japan, Bangladesh, Turkey, Germany, Ethiopia and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 23%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +7.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($1B), the United States ($723M) and India ($323M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 31% share of the global market. Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, Japan, Germany, Mexico, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

Among the main consuming countries, Nigeria, with a CAGR of +6.9%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of casein and caseinates per capita consumption in 2022 were the United States (282 kg per 1000 persons), Turkey (186 kg per 1000 persons) and Germany (182 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +5.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Casein And Caseinates

In 2022, global production of casein and caseinates dropped slightly to 906K tons, flattening at 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 8.4% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 929K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, casein and caseinates production rose slightly to $6.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 12%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $7.1B. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (148K tons) remains the largest casein and caseinates producing country worldwide, accounting for 16% of total volume. Moreover, casein and caseinates production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, New Zealand (63K tons), twofold. Ireland (56K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +3.9%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: New Zealand (+1.9% per year) and Ireland (+4.1% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Casein And Caseinates

In 2022, supplies from abroad of casein and caseinates increased by 18% to 222K tons, rising for the fourth year in a row after three years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, casein and caseinates imports soared to $2.1B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated temperate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +125.8% against 2018 indices. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (80K tons) was the key importer of casein and caseinates, mixing up 36% of total imports. China (16K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 7.1% share, followed by Mexico (6.1%), Poland (5.6%), Germany (5%) and the Netherlands (4.6%). The following importers - Italy (9.9K tons), Spain (8.2K tons), Japan (4.8K tons), Russia (4.7K tons) and South Korea (4K tons) - together made up 14% of total imports.

Imports into the United States increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, China (+18.9%), Russia (+12.6%), the Netherlands (+8.5%), South Korea (+3.3%), Poland (+2.2%) and Mexico (+1.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +18.9% from 2012-2022. Japan, Spain and Italy experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-5.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+5.6 p.p.), the United States (+2.5 p.p.) and the Netherlands (+2.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Germany saw its share reduced by -5.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($617M) constitutes the largest market for imported casein and caseinates worldwide, comprising 29% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($195M), with a 9.3% share of global imports. It was followed by Mexico, with a 7.5% share.

In the United States, casein and caseinates imports increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+22.5% per year) and Mexico (+4.7% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average casein and caseinates import price amounted to $9,453 per ton, increasing by 14% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated temperate growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, casein and caseinates import price increased by +53.1% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 18%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $9,562 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($12,400 per ton), while Italy ($5,715 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Casein And Caseinates

In 2022, global casein and caseinates exports shrank to 202K tons, stabilizing at 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 15%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 202K tons, leveling off in the following year.

In value terms, casein and caseinates exports surged to $2.2B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, recorded noticeable growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 31%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

New Zealand (61K tons) and Ireland (55K tons) were the largest exporters of casein and caseinates in 2022, finishing at near 30% and 27% of total exports, respectively. It was distantly followed by France (25K tons), achieving a 12% share of total exports. The following exporters - India (8.5K tons), Ukraine (7.8K tons), the Netherlands (7.6K tons), Argentina (6.4K tons), Germany (6.2K tons), Latvia (5K tons), Austria (4.2K tons) and Spain (3.6K tons) - together made up 24% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Latvia (with a CAGR of +204.4%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest casein and caseinates supplying countries worldwide were New Zealand ($718M), Ireland ($628M) and France ($260M), together comprising 73% of global exports. India, the Netherlands, Germany, Ukraine, Argentina, Austria, Spain and Latvia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 22%.

Among the main exporting countries, Latvia, with a CAGR of +169.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average casein and caseinates export price amounted to $10,841 per ton, jumping by 31% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, casein and caseinates export price increased by +93.0% against 2016 indices. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($12,735 per ton), while Latvia ($2,704 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+5.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform