Global Wine Market's Upward Trajectory With a +1.1% Volume CAGR Forecast Through 2035

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The global wine market is on a sustained growth path. In 2024, consumption reached 29 billion litres, with market revenue skyrocketing to $142.4 billion. The market is forecast to expand at a CAGR of +1.1% in volume and +2.6% in value through 2035, reaching 33 billion litres and $188.2 billion respectively. The Netherlands, the United States, and Italy are the largest consumers by volume, while the US, France, and the Netherlands lead in market value. Italy, Spain, and France are the top producers. Global trade is robust, with the Netherlands as the leading importer and France, Italy, and Spain as the top exporters. Sparkling wine is the fastest-growing segment in both imports and exports.

Key Findings

• Global wine market is forecast to grow steadily, reaching 33B litres (CAGR +1.1%) and $188.2B (CAGR +2.6%) by 2035
• The Netherlands, USA, and Italy are the top consuming countries by volume, while the USA, France, and the Netherlands lead in market value
• Italy, Spain, and France dominate production, accounting for 50% of global output
• The Netherlands is the world's largest importer by volume, while the USA, UK, and Germany lead by import value
• Sparkling wine is the fastest-growing trade segment, gaining market share in both imports and exports

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for wine worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 33B litres by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $188.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Wine

In 2024, consumption of wine increased by 3.1% to 29B litres, rising for the fourth year in a row after two years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The global wine market revenue skyrocketed to $142.4B in 2024, picking up by 34% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a buoyant expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +89.1% against 2020 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were the Netherlands (3.7B litres), the United States (3.2B litres) and Italy (3.1B litres), together accounting for 34% of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +8.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($34.1B), France ($24.4B) and the Netherlands ($14.9B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 52% share of the global market. Italy, China, Spain, the UK, Argentina, Germany and Australia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

Italy, with a CAGR of +15.2%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, the highest levels of wine per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (212 litres per person), followed by Spain (56 litres per person), Italy (52 litres per person) and France (42 litres per person), while the world average per capita consumption of wine was estimated at 3.6 litres per person.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the wine per capita consumption in the Netherlands amounted to +7.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+3.4% per year) and Italy (+6.4% per year).

Production

World's Production of Wine

In 2024, global production of wine expanded modestly to 26B litres, rising by 1.5% against the year before. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 6.2% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 27B litres. From 2019 to 2024, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wine production skyrocketed to $148B in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a perceptible increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 37%. Global production peaked at $214B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Italy (5B litres), Spain (4.5B litres) and France (3.7B litres), with a combined 50% share of global production. The United States, China, Australia, Chile, Argentina, South Africa and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Germany (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World's Imports of Wine

Global wine imports totaled 13B litres in 2024, picking up by 5.7% against 2023. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when imports increased by 18%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2024 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, wine imports declined slightly to $39.7B in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 18% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $40.8B. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2024, the Netherlands (3.8B litres) represented the major importer of wine, committing 29% of total imports. The United States (1.4B litres) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 10% share, followed by Germany (9.6%) and the UK (8.3%). France (540M litres), Belgium (447M litres), Canada (368M litres), Russia (303M litres), China (283M litres) and Italy (245M litres) took a relatively small share of total imports.

The Netherlands was also the fastest-growing in terms of the wine imports, with a CAGR of +8.1% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Belgium (+2.4%) and the United States (+2.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. France, Canada and Italy experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-1.6%), the UK (-2.1%), China (-2.5%) and Russia (-3.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of the Netherlands increased by +15 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest wine importing markets worldwide were the United States ($6.8B), the UK ($5B) and Germany ($2.8B), with a combined 37% share of global imports. Canada, the Netherlands, China, Belgium, France, Russia and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

Italy, with a CAGR of +3.8%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) dominates imports structure, resulting at 12B litres, which was near 90% of total imports in 2024. It was distantly followed by sparkling wine (1.3B litres), making up a 9.9% share of total imports.

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports. At the same time, sparkling wine (+3.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, sparkling wine emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +3.9% from 2013-2024. Sparkling wine (+2.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) saw its share reduced by -2.5% from 2013 to 2024, respectively.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($29.1B) constitutes the largest type of wine imported worldwide, comprising 77% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by sparkling wine ($8.9B), with a 23% share of global imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) imports was relatively modest.

Import Prices By Type

The average wine import price stood at $3 per litre in 2024, which is down by -7% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 16%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $3.9 per litre. From 2022 to 2024, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($6.8 per litre), while the price for wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) stood at $2.4 per litre.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by sparkling wine (+0.4%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average wine import price amounted to $3 per litre, with a decrease of -7% against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 16%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $3.9 per litre. From 2022 to 2024, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($5.6 per litre), while the Netherlands ($437 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+4.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Wine

In 2024, after two years of decline, there was growth in overseas shipments of wine, when their volume increased by 2.2% to 10B litres. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 5.8%. The global exports peaked at 11B litres in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wine exports reduced to $40.1B in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 19%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $40.8B. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from Italy (2.1B litres), Spain (2B litres) and France (1.3B litres), together reaching 53% of total export. It was distantly followed by Chile (772M litres) and Australia (662M litres), together committing a 14% share of total exports. Portugal (347M litres), Germany (317M litres), South Africa (302M litres), New Zealand (267M litres) and the United States (239M litres) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for New Zealand (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wine supplying countries worldwide were France ($13.2B), Italy ($9.1B) and Spain ($3.4B), with a combined 64% share of global exports.

Italy, with a CAGR of +2.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2024, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (8.9B litres) was the largest type of wine, making up 89% of total exports. It was distantly followed by sparkling wine (1.1B litres), generating an 11% share of total exports.

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports. At the same time, sparkling wine (+4.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, sparkling wine emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +4.1% from 2013-2024. Sparkling wine (+4.2 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) saw its share reduced by -4.2% from 2013 to 2024, respectively.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($30.4B) remains the largest type of wine supplied worldwide, comprising 77% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by sparkling wine ($9.2B), with a 23% share of global exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exports was relatively modest.

Export Prices By Type

In 2024, the average wine export price amounted to $4 per litre, falling by -2.2% against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 13% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $4 per litre in 2023, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($8.4 per litre), while the average price for exports of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) amounted to $3.4 per litre.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by wine of fresh grapes (+1.3%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average wine export price amounted to $4 per litre, declining by -2.2% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $4 per litre in 2023, and then fell in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was France ($10 per litre), while Spain ($1.7 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.