Global Wine Market: Anticipated CAGR of +0.9% to Reach 28B Litres by 2035

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The article discusses the rising demand for wine globally and predicts a positive trend in consumption over the next decade. Projections indicate a slight increase in market performance, with both volume and value expected to grow steadily until 2035. By the end of that year, the market is forecasted to reach 28B litres in volume and $161.2B in value.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for wine worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 28B litres by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $161.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Wine

In 2024, the amount of wine consumed worldwide totaled 26B litres, leveling off at 2023. Overall, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 5.8% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 26B litres in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global wine market value skyrocketed to $132.9B in 2024, picking up by 42% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a pronounced increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +76.0% against 2020 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Italy (3.2B litres), the United States (3.2B litres) and France (2.9B litres), together comprising 36% of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +6.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($34.1B), France ($28.2B) and Italy ($14B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 57% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Italy, with a CAGR of +16.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of wine per capita consumption in 2024 were Spain (56 litres per person), Italy (55 litres per person) and France (43 litres per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Wine

In 2024, approx. 26B litres of wine were produced worldwide; approximately mirroring the year before. Overall, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 6%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 27B litres in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wine production surged to $151.2B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a notable increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 35%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $214.5B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Italy (5B litres), Spain (4.5B litres) and France (3.7B litres), together comprising 50% of global production. The United States, China, Australia, Chile, Argentina, South Africa and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Germany (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World's Imports of Wine

In 2024, overseas purchases of wine decreased by -7.9% to 8.8B litres, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. Over the period under review, imports saw a noticeable slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 3.3% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 11B litres in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wine imports reduced to $37B in 2024. In general, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $40.8B. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, the United States (1.4B litres), the UK (1.1B litres) and Germany (1B litres) was the major importer of wine in the world, generating 39% of total import. It was distantly followed by France (416M litres), mixing up a 4.7% share of total imports. Canada (368M litres), the Netherlands (314M litres), Russia (303M litres), China (283M litres), Japan (239M litres) and Belgium (221M litres) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +2.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced a decline in the imports figures.

In value terms, the United States ($6.8B), the UK ($5B) and Germany ($2.1B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, with a combined 38% share of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, the United States, with a CAGR of +1.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) represented the main type of wine in the world, with the volume of imports recording 12B litres, which was near 90% of total imports in 2024. It was distantly followed by sparkling wine (1.4B litres), mixing up a 10% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) imports of stood at +1.0%. At the same time, sparkling wine (+4.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, sparkling wine emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +4.6% from 2013-2024. While the share of sparkling wine (+3.1 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2013-2024, the share of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (-3.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($30.5B) constitutes the largest type of wine imported worldwide, comprising 77% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by sparkling wine ($9.2B), with a 23% share of global imports.

For wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine), imports remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024.

Import Prices By Type

The average wine import price stood at $4.2 per litre in 2024, approximately equating the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.0%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average import price increased by 15%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $4.2 per litre in 2023, and then declined in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($6.7 per litre), while the price for wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) stood at $2.6 per litre.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by sparkling wine (-0.1%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average wine import price amounted to $4.2 per litre, standing approx. at the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.0%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 15%. Global import price peaked at $4.2 per litre in 2023, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($6.9 per litre), while France ($2 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+15.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Wine

In 2024, approx. 9.3B litres of wine were exported worldwide; with a decrease of -5% on the previous year. Overall, exports recorded a mild setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 6.1% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 11B litres. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, wine exports fell to $37.7B in 2024. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 19% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $40.8B. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2024, Spain (1.9B litres) and Italy (1.9B litres) were the main exporters of winearound the world, together finishing at approx. 41% of total exports. France (1,139M litres) took a 12% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Chile (7.2%) and Australia (7.1%). Portugal (341M litres), South Africa (302M litres), New Zealand (267M litres), Germany (251M litres) and the United States (239M litres) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by New Zealand (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wine supplying countries worldwide were France ($12.3B), Italy ($8.3B) and Spain ($3.4B), together comprising 64% of global exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Italy, with a CAGR of +2.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) represented the key type of wine in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 9B litres, which was near 89% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by sparkling wine (1.1B litres), comprising an 11% share of total exports.

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports. At the same time, sparkling wine (+4.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, sparkling wine emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +4.4% from 2013-2024. While the share of sparkling wine (+4.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2013-2024, the share of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (-4.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($30.5B) remains the largest type of wine supplied worldwide, comprising 76% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by sparkling wine ($9.5B), with a 24% share of global exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exports was relatively modest.

Export Prices By Type

The average wine export price stood at $4 per litre in 2024, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.8%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $4.1 per litre in 2023, and then declined in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($8.4 per litre), while the average price for exports of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) amounted to $3.4 per litre.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by wine of fresh grapes (+1.3%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average wine export price amounted to $4 per litre, almost unchanged from the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.8%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 12%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $4.1 per litre in 2023, and then shrank in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was France ($11 per litre), while Spain ($1.7 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+4.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.