Global Wine Market: Anticipated Growth in Volume and Value Over Next Decade

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The global wine market is set to see an upward consumption trend over the next decade, with an anticipated increase in market volume and value. The market is forecasted to have a CAGR of +0.9% in volume and +1.8% in value from 2024 to 2035.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for wine worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 28B litres by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $161.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Wine

In 2024, the amount of wine consumed worldwide was estimated at 26B litres, remaining stable against 2023. Overall, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 5.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 26B litres in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global wine market size skyrocketed to $132.9B in 2024, picking up by 42% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a pronounced expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +76.0% against 2020 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Italy (3.2B litres), the United States (3.2B litres) and France (2.9B litres), together accounting for 36% of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +6.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wine markets worldwide were the United States ($34.1B), France ($28.2B) and Italy ($14B), with a combined 57% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Italy, with a CAGR of +16.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of wine per capita consumption in 2024 were Spain (56 litres per person), Italy (55 litres per person) and France (43 litres per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Italy (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Wine

In 2024, approx. 26B litres of wine were produced worldwide; approximately mirroring the previous year's figure. In general, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume at 27B litres in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wine production soared to $151.2B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated temperate growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 35%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $214.5B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Italy (5B litres), Spain (4.5B litres) and France (3.7B litres), with a combined 50% share of global production. The United States, China, Australia, Chile, Argentina, South Africa and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Germany (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World's Imports of Wine

In 2024, supplies from abroad of wine decreased by -7.9% to 8.8B litres, falling for the second consecutive year after three years of growth. Over the period under review, imports showed a noticeable contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 3.3% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 11B litres in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, wine imports declined to $37B in 2024. In general, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 18%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $40.8B. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the three major importers of wine, namely the United States, the UK and Germany, represented more than third of total import. It was distantly followed by France (416M litres), comprising a 4.7% share of total imports. The following importers - Canada (368M litres), the Netherlands (314M litres), Russia (303M litres), China (283M litres), Japan (239M litres) and Belgium (221M litres) - together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +2.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced a decline in the imports figures.

In value terms, the United States ($6.8B), the UK ($5B) and Germany ($2.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, with a combined 38% share of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, the United States, with a CAGR of +1.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) represented the main type of wine in the world, with the volume of imports amounting to 12B litres, which was near 90% of total imports in 2024. It was distantly followed by sparkling wine (1.4B litres), achieving a 10% share of total imports.

Imports of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, sparkling wine (+4.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, sparkling wine emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +4.6% from 2013-2024. While the share of sparkling wine (+3.1 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2013-2024, the share of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (-3.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($30.5B) constitutes the largest type of wine imported worldwide, comprising 77% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by sparkling wine ($9.2B), with a 23% share of global imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) imports was relatively modest.

Import Prices By Type

The average wine import price stood at $4.2 per litre in 2024, approximately mirroring the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.0%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 15% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $4.2 per litre in 2023, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($6.7 per litre), while the price for wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) amounted to $2.6 per litre.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by sparkling wine (-0.1%).

Import Prices By Country

The average wine import price stood at $4.2 per litre in 2024, approximately equating the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.0%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $4.2 per litre in 2023, and then contracted in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($6.9 per litre), while France ($2 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+15.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Wine

In 2024, global exports of wine contracted to 9.3B litres, waning by -5% on the previous year. In general, exports showed a mild shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 6.1% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 11B litres. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wine exports dropped to $37.7B in 2024. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $40.8B. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2024, Spain (1.9B litres) and Italy (1.9B litres) were the major exporters of wineacross the globe, together recording near 41% of total exports. It was distantly followed by France (1,139M litres), Chile (667M litres) and Australia (662M litres), together mixing up a 26% share of total exports. Portugal (341M litres), South Africa (302M litres), New Zealand (267M litres), Germany (251M litres) and the United States (239M litres) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by New Zealand (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wine supplying countries worldwide were France ($12.3B), Italy ($8.3B) and Spain ($3.4B), together accounting for 64% of global exports.

Italy, with a CAGR of +2.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2024, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (9B litres) represented the major type of wine, constituting 89% of total exports. It was distantly followed by sparkling wine (1.1B litres), constituting an 11% share of total exports.

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports. At the same time, sparkling wine (+4.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, sparkling wine emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +4.4% from 2013-2024. From 2013 to 2024, the share of sparkling wine increased by +4.4 percentage points.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($30.5B) remains the largest type of wine supplied worldwide, comprising 76% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by sparkling wine ($9.5B), with a 24% share of global exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exports was relatively modest.

Export Prices By Type

In 2024, the average wine export price amounted to $4 per litre, remaining stable against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.8%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $4.1 per litre in 2023, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($8.4 per litre), while the average price for exports of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) amounted to $3.4 per litre.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by wine of fresh grapes (+1.3%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average wine export price amounted to $4 per litre, approximately mirroring the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.8%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $4.1 per litre in 2023, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was France ($11 per litre), while Spain ($1.7 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+4.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.