Japan's Wine Market to Reach 341 Million Litres Valued at $1.5 Billion by 2035

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This article provides a comprehensive analysis of Japan's wine market as of 2024, with forecasts extending to 2035. Driven by rising demand, the market is projected to grow slightly, with volume reaching 341 million litres (a +1.6% CAGR) and value reaching $1.5 billion (a +2.7% CAGR) by 2035. Current consumption stands at 287 million litres, showing a 2.3% increase from 2023 but remaining below the 2013 peak. Domestic production has declined to 48 million litres. Japan relies heavily on imports (239 million litres), primarily from Chile, France, and Spain, with France being the most valuable supplier. The import market is segmented, with 'wine of fresh grapes' being the most voluminous and 'sparkling wine' showing the highest value growth. Japanese wine exports are modest at 332 thousand litres, with Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR, and the US as key markets. The analysis details import/export prices, product types, and country-specific trends, highlighting a market in a slow recovery phase with a shift towards higher-value sparkling wines.

Key Findings

• Japan's wine market is forecast to grow to 341M litres ($1.5B) by 2035
• Domestic consumption in 2024 was 287M litres, still below the 2013 peak
• Imports supply 83% of the market, led by France in value and Chile in volume
• Sparkling wine imports are the fastest-growing segment by value
• Japanese wine exports are small but high-value, primarily to Asian markets

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for wine in Japan, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 341M litres by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $1.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Japan's Consumption of Wine

In 2024, wine consumption in Japan amounted to 287M litres, with an increase of 2.3% on 2023 figures. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a pronounced curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 7.4%. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs at 431M litres in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The revenue of the wine market in Japan stood at $1.2B in 2024, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, recorded a mild decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 8.2%. Over the period under review, the market reached the maximum level at $1.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Production

Japan's Production of Wine

Wine production in Japan reduced to 48M litres in 2024, standing approx. at 2023 figures. In general, production continues to indicate a perceptible downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the production volume increased by 7.9%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 86M litres. From 2020 to 2024, production growth failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wine production reduced to $610M in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, showed a prominent increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 182%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $1.5B. From 2018 to 2024, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

Japan's Imports of Wine

In 2024, wine imports into Japan rose modestly to 239M litres, growing by 2.9% compared with the year before. In general, imports, however, recorded a perceptible decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 8.9%. Imports peaked at 352M litres in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wine imports contracted to $1.6B in 2024. Over the period under review, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 9.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $1.9B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

Chile (62M litres), France (52M litres) and Spain (45M litres) were the main suppliers of wine imports to Japan, together comprising 67% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Chile (with a CAGR of +0.8%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced a decline.

In value terms, France ($943M) constituted the largest supplier of wine to Japan, comprising 57% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Italy ($212M), with a 13% share of total imports. It was followed by Chile, with an 8.6% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from France amounted to +1.3%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Italy (-0.1% per year) and Chile (-0.5% per year).

Imports By Type

In 2024, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (199M litres) constituted the largest type of wine supplied to Japan, with a 83% share of total imports. Moreover, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, sparkling wine (40M litres), fivefold.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) imports amounted to -2.6%.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($996M) and sparkling wine ($646M) appeared to be the most imported types of wine in Japan.

In terms of the main product categories, sparkling wine, with a CAGR of +4.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review.

Import Prices By Type

In 2024, the average wine import price amounted to $6.9 per litre, waning by -10.5% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +4.1%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 an increase of 35% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $7.7 per litre in 2023, and then dropped in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplied products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($16 per litre), while the price for wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) totaled $5 per litre.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by sparkling wine (+11.7%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average wine import price amounted to $6.9 per litre, dropping by -10.5% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +4.1%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the average import price increased by 35%. The import price peaked at $7.7 per litre in 2023, and then fell in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($18 per litre), while the price for Chile ($2.3 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+14.1%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Japan's Exports of Wine

In 2024, the amount of wine exported from Japan totaled 332K litres, surging by 5.4% on the year before. Overall, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 96%. The exports peaked at 353K litres in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wine exports expanded notably to $4.2M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports enjoyed prominent growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 190% against the previous year. The exports peaked at $5.9M in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Taiwan (Chinese) (145K litres) was the main destination for wine exports from Japan, accounting for a 44% share of total exports. Moreover, wine exports to Taiwan (Chinese) exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, China (40K litres), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Hong Kong SAR (30K litres), with a 9.2% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Taiwan (Chinese) amounted to -5.5%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: China (+22.1% per year) and Hong Kong SAR (+22.6% per year).

In value terms, Taiwan (Chinese) ($868K), Hong Kong SAR ($811K) and the United States ($503K) constituted the largest markets for wine exported from Japan worldwide, together comprising 52% of total exports. China, Singapore, Thailand, the UK, South Korea and Guam lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

Among the main countries of destination, Guam, with a CAGR of +148.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (310K litres) was the largest type of wine exported from Japan, accounting for a 93% share of total exports. Moreover, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exceeded the volume of the second product type, sparkling wine (22K litres), more than tenfold.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exports was relatively modest.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($3.8M) remains the largest type of wine exported from Japan, comprising 91% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by sparkling wine ($382K), with a 9.2% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exports stood at +9.4%.

Export Prices By Type

The average wine export price stood at $13 per litre in 2024, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, enjoyed a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 189%. The export price peaked at $20 per litre in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat for the major types of exported product. In 2024, the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($17 per litre), while the average price for exports of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) stood at $12 per litre.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for the following types: wine of fresh grapes (+10.2%).

Export Prices By Country

The average wine export price stood at $13 per litre in 2024, approximately equating the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, enjoyed a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 189%. The export price peaked at $20 per litre in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major export markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Hong Kong SAR ($27 per litre), while the average price for exports to Guam ($4.9 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to South Korea (+13.7%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.