China's Wine Market Forecast Shows Modest Growth with 0.5% Volume CAGR Through 2035

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China's wine market showed signs of recovery in 2024 with consumption increasing 1.7% to 2.1B litres, ending a five-year declining trend. The market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of +0.5% in volume and +1.6% in value through 2035, reaching 2.2B litres and $10.1B respectively. Domestic production remained stable at 1.8B litres, while imports rebounded by 14% to 283M litres after six years of decline. Import prices rose significantly to $5.6 per litre, and exports declined to 2.7M litres valued at $33M. The market remains dominated by still grape wines, which constitute 98% of imports and 95% of exports.

Key Findings

• Wine consumption rebounded in 2024 after five consecutive years of decline, reaching 2.1B litres
• Market forecast shows modest growth with 0.5% volume CAGR and 1.6% value CAGR through 2035
• Imports surged 14% in 2024 to 283M litres, breaking a six-year downward trend
• Import prices jumped 21% to $5.6 per litre, reaching record levels
• Domestic production remains substantial at 1.8B litres but below 2018 peak levels

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for wine in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.2B litres by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

China's Consumption of Wine

In 2024, consumption of wine increased by 1.7% to 2.1B litres for the first time since 2018, thus ending a five-year declining trend. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Wine consumption peaked at 2.9B litres in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The size of the wine market in China stood at $8.5B in 2024, approximately equating the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Wine consumption peaked at $9.7B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production

China's Production of Wine

In 2024, wine production in China amounted to 1.8B litres, standing approx. at the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 28% against the previous year. Wine production peaked at 2.2B litres in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, wine production rose rapidly to $22.5B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, recorded a pronounced descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 127%. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $127.8B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

China's Imports of Wine

After six years of decline, overseas purchases of wine increased by 14% to 283M litres in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a perceptible contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 44%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at 745M litres in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wine imports soared to $1.6B in 2024. Overall, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Imports peaked at $2.9B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume from No country was relatively modest.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value from No country was relatively modest.

Imports By Type

In 2024, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (276M litres) was the main type of wine supplied to China, with a 98% share of total imports. It was followed by sparkling wine (6.7M litres), with a 2.4% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) imports totaled -2.5%.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($1.5B) constituted the largest type of wine supplied to China, comprising 96% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by sparkling wine ($67M), with a 4.2% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) imports was relatively modest.

Import Prices By Type

The average wine import price stood at $5.6 per litre in 2024, surging by 21% against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($10 per litre), while the price for wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) stood at $5.5 per litre.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by wine of fresh grapes (+2.8%).

Import Prices By Country

China has no trade partners to describe.

Exports

China's Exports of Wine

In 2024, approx. 2.7M litres of wine were exported from China; shrinking by -18.4% on 2023 figures. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a pronounced expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 169%. The exports peaked at 10M litres in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wine exports fell to $33M in 2024. Overall, exports saw a mild reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 242% against the previous year. The exports peaked at $542M in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume to No country was relatively modest.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value to No country was relatively modest.

Exports By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (2.5M litres) was the largest type of wine exported from China, with a 95% share of total exports. Moreover, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exceeded the volume of the second product type, sparkling wine (145K litres), more than tenfold.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exports amounted to +3.1%.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($30M) remains the largest type of wine exported from China, comprising 90% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by sparkling wine ($3.5M), with a 10% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exports stood at -2.0%.

Export Prices By Type

The average wine export price stood at $12 per litre in 2024, surging by 7.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, recorded a perceptible slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the average export price increased by 77%. The export price peaked at $57 per litre in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($24 per litre), while the average price for exports of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) stood at $12 per litre.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for the following types: sparkling wine (+2.6%).

Export Prices By Country

China has no trade partners to describe.