U.S. Lemon Prices to Increase on Rising Fertilizer Costs, Global Production to Gain 4% y/y in 2022

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Lemons And Limes - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

Driven by growing logistics and fertilizer costs, lemon prices in the U.S. will rise despite expected increases in domestic and global production. In 2022, worldwide lemon and lime output is forecast to grow by 4% y/y to a record 22M tons due to increased acreages and favourable weather in Mexico, Turkey, South Africa and the U.S.

Lemon prices in the U.S. are projected to grow, despite expected increases in domestic and global production. Rising logistics and fertilizer costs are to push up fruit prices. In December 2021, the monthly average retail price for a pound of lemons in the U.S. was estimated at approximately $2.014, rising by 6% compared to December 2020. In 2022, it is forecast to pick up 3% to $2.074 per pound.

This year, global lemon and lime production is projected to increase by 4% y/y to 22M tons on the higher harvested areas and favourable weather in Mexico, Turkey and the U.S. Output in Mexico is to grow by 7% y/y to 3.2M tons, while Turkey production is set to soar by 27% y/y to a record 1.4M tons. Lemon production in South Africa is to rise by 4% y/y to 650K tons.

In 2022, U.S. output is expected to pick up 10% y/y to 885K tons with a larger crop in California. Imports into the U.S. are forecast to decrease by 2.3% y/y to 840K tons on rising domestic production.

Global Lemon and Lime Imports by Country

In 2020, approx. 3.7M tons of lemons and limes were imported worldwide, surging by 10% on the year before. In value terms, lemon and lime imports skyrocketed to $4.2B (IndexBox estimates).

In 2020, the U.S. (853K tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (306K tons), Germany (260K tons), Russia (239K tons), France (174K tons) and the UK (168K tons) were the key importers of lemons and limes, together constituting 55% of total supplies. The following importers - Saudi Arabia (146K tons), Poland (141K tons), the United Arab Emirates (136K tons), Italy (119K tons), Canada (66K tons), Ukraine (65K tons) and Romania (62K tons) - together made up 20% of total purchases.

In value terms, the largest lemon and lime importing markets worldwide were the U.S. ($659M), Germany ($455M) and the Netherlands ($346M), together comprising 35% of global imports.

In 2020, the average lemon and lime import price amounted to $1,137 per ton, surging by 4.8% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,925 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($714 per ton) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform