Northern America's Soya Bean Market Poised for Growth With 4.1% CAGR in Value Through 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: Northern America - Soya Beans - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

This market analysis details the Northern American soya bean industry from 2013 to 2024, with a forecast to 2035. In 2024, regional consumption was 65M tons (valued at $30.4B), led overwhelmingly by the United States, while production rebounded to 122M tons. The region is a major net exporter, with exports reaching 57M tons. Driven by increasing demand, the market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of +2.6% in volume and +4.1% in value through 2035, reaching 86M tons and $47.3B, respectively.

Key Findings

• The United States dominates the regional market, accounting for 97% of consumption and 94% of production
• Northern America is a major net exporter, with 2024 exports of 57M tons vastly exceeding imports of 960K tons
• Market value is forecast for robust growth with a +4.1% CAGR, projected to reach $47.3B by 2035
• Consumption declined in 2024 but is expected to resume a long-term upward trend, reaching 86M tons by 2035
• Average import and export prices fell significantly in 2024, declining by approximately -18% year-on-year

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for soya beans in Northern America, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 86M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $47.3B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Northern America's Consumption of Soya Bean

In 2024, soya bean consumption in Northern America fell to 65M tons, which is down by -5.2% on 2023. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, consumption attained the maximum volume at 78M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The size of the soya bean market in Northern America dropped remarkably to $30.4B in 2024, with a decrease of -15.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $38.1B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of soya bean consumption was the United States (63M tons), comprising approx. 97% of total volume. It was followed by Canada (2M tons), with a 3% share of total consumption.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in the United States stood at +1.6%.

In value terms, the United States ($29.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Canada ($956M).

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States was relatively modest.

In the United States, soya bean per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024.

Production

Northern America's Production of Soya Bean

In 2024, production of soya beans was finally on the rise to reach 122M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. The volume of production peaked at 128M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a perceptible increase of the harvested area and a modest expansion in yield figures.

In value terms, soya bean production reduced to $57B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 27% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $69.1B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The United States (115M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of soya bean production, accounting for 94% of total volume. Moreover, soya bean production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Canada (6.8M tons), more than tenfold.

In the United States, soya bean production increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013-2024.

Yield

The average soya bean yield shrank modestly to 3.3 tons per ha in 2024, approximately equating the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the yield increased by 8.3%. The level of yield peaked at 3.5 tons per ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the soya bean harvested area in Northern America amounted to 36M ha, with an increase of 1.9% on 2023 figures. Overall, the harvested area recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 9.7% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of 39M ha. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of the soya bean harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

Northern America's Imports of Soya Bean

In 2024, the amount of soya beans imported in Northern America declined to 960K tons, shrinking by -12.9% against 2023 figures. Overall, imports showed a noticeable decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 58% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 2.3M tons. From 2015 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, soya bean imports dropped dramatically to $549M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports showed a noticeable decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 69% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $1.4B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The United States represented the largest importer of soya beans in Northern America, with the volume of imports accounting for 661K tons, which was near 69% of total imports in 2024. It was distantly followed by Canada (300K tons), constituting a 31% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to soya bean imports into the United States stood at -5.6%. At the same time, Canada (+2.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Canada emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Northern America, with a CAGR of +2.3% from 2013-2024. From 2013 to 2024, the share of Canada increased by +15 percentage points.

In value terms, the United States ($380M) constitutes the largest market for imported soya beans in Northern America, comprising 69% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Canada ($170M), with a 31% share of total imports.

In the United States, soya bean imports contracted by an average annual rate of -6.5% over the period from 2013-2024.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the import price in Northern America amounted to $572 per ton, shrinking by -18.3% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a mild curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the import price increased by 33% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $840 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($575 per ton), while Canada totaled $566 per ton.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (-0.8%).

Exports

Northern America's Exports of Soya Bean

In 2024, exports of soya beans in Northern America reached 57M tons, picking up by 8.8% compared with the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 21% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 68M tons. From 2021 to 2024, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, soya bean exports contracted to $27.1B in 2024. Total exports indicated a slight expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -27.1% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 36% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at $37.2B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

The United States prevails in exports structure, resulting at 52M tons, which was approx. 91% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by Canada (5.1M tons), creating an 8.9% share of total exports.

Exports from the United States increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Canada (+3.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Canada emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Northern America, with a CAGR of +3.4% from 2013-2024. The shares of the largest exporters remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($24.6B) remains the largest soya bean supplier in Northern America, comprising 91% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Canada ($2.5B), with a 9.3% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States stood at +1.2%.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in Northern America amounted to $472 per ton, waning by -18.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a mild shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 29% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $606 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($492 per ton), while the United States amounted to $470 per ton.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (-1.3%).