United States' Sour Cherry Market Poised for Steady Value Growth With 4.1% CAGR Through 2035

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This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the United States sour cherry market. It details that in 2024, consumption was 99K tons (valued at $461M) and production was 100K tons (valued at $429M), both showing recovery but remaining below 2016 peaks. The market forecast predicts modest growth to 107K tons (volume CAGR +0.7%) and $715M (value CAGR +4.1%) by 2035. Trade data shows minimal imports (21 tons from Chile) and exports of 941 tons, primarily to Mexico. The analysis covers yield, harvested area, and price trends for both imports and exports, highlighting the market's current state and future trajectory.

Key Findings

• US sour cherry market is forecast to grow to 107K tons and $715M by 2035, with value growth (CAGR +4.1%) significantly outpacing volume growth (CAGR +0.7%)
• Both consumption (99K tons) and production (100K tons) increased in 2024 but remain well below the peak levels observed in 2016
• The US is a net exporter, sending 941 tons abroad in 2024, with Mexico being the dominant destination (82% of export volume)
• Imports are negligible (21 tons, solely from Chile) and have declined dramatically from over 1.7K tons in 2013
• Average export price fell to $3,361 per ton in 2024, reflecting a significant decrease from the 2017 high of $7,642 per ton

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for sour cherry in the United States, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 107K tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $715M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

United States's Consumption of Sour Cherries

In 2024, consumption of sour cherries in the United States rose rapidly to 99K tons, surging by 11% against 2023 figures. In general, consumption, however, saw a perceptible decline. Over the period under review, consumption attained the maximum volume at 142K tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The revenue of the sour cherry market in the United States stood at $461M in 2024, increasing by 3.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, showed a noticeable slump. Sour cherry consumption peaked at $839M in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production

United States's Production of Sour Cherries

Sour cherry production in the United States rose remarkably to 100K tons in 2024, with an increase of 10% against 2023 figures. Over the period under review, production, however, saw a perceptible decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the production volume increased by 41%. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at 145K tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum. Sour cherry output in the United States indicated a noticeable reduction, which was largely conditioned by a pronounced decrease of the harvested area and a mild descent in yield figures.

In value terms, sour cherry production shrank to $429M in 2024. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a abrupt contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 48% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level at $867M in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Yield

The average yield of sour cherries in the United States expanded rapidly to 7.3 tons per ha in 2024, rising by 8.9% compared with the year before. In general, the yield, however, recorded a mild shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the yield increased by 39% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average sour cherry yield attained the maximum level at 9.6 tons per ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the total area harvested in terms of sour cherries production in the United States was estimated at 14K ha, approximately reflecting 2023 figures. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, recorded a mild slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 8.3% against the previous year. The sour cherry harvested area peaked at 15K ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

United States's Imports of Sour Cherries

Sour cherry imports into the United States dropped markedly to 21 tons in 2024, waning by -56.9% against 2023 figures. Over the period under review, imports faced a dramatic descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 1,135%. Imports peaked at 1.7K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, sour cherry imports reduced sharply to $82K in 2024. In general, imports saw a precipitous curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 2,759% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $7.5M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Chile (21 tons) was the main sour cherry supplier to the United States, with a approx. 100% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume from Chile stood at -33.0%.

In value terms, Chile ($82K) constituted the largest supplier of sour cherries to the United States.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Chile stood at -32.1%.

Import Prices By Country

The average sour cherry import price stood at $4,000 per ton in 2024, shrinking by -19.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a modest expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 230%. The import price peaked at $5,044 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.

As there is only one major supplying country, the average price level is determined by prices for Chile.

From 2013 to 2024, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Canada amounted to +38.1% per year.

Exports

United States's Exports of Sour Cherries

In 2024, approx. 941 tons of sour cherries were exported from the United States; falling by -42.6% against 2023 figures. In general, exports, however, showed perceptible growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 348% against the previous year. The exports peaked at 5.5K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry exports shrank significantly to $3.2M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports showed a pronounced contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 383% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at $42M in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Mexico (774 tons) was the main destination for sour cherry exports from the United States, with a 82% share of total exports. Moreover, sour cherry exports to Mexico exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Trinidad and Tobago (47 tons), more than tenfold. Canada (44 tons) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 4.7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume to Mexico amounted to +23.4%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Trinidad and Tobago (+61.4% per year) and Canada (-6.4% per year).

In value terms, Mexico ($2M) remains the key foreign market for sour cherries exports from the United States, comprising 62% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Trinidad and Tobago ($421K), with a 13% share of total exports. It was followed by Barbados, with a 6.7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value to Mexico stood at +13.3%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Trinidad and Tobago (+56.7% per year) and Barbados (+71.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average sour cherry export price amounted to $3,361 per ton, falling by -18.5% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a noticeable decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the average export price increased by 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $7,642 per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Vietnam ($9,096 per ton), while the average price for exports to Mexico ($2,548 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Australia (+9.8%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.