United States's Sour Cherry Market to Experience Slight Growth with +0.7% CAGR in Volume by 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: U.S. - Sour Cherries - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

Driven by increasing demand for sour cherries, the market in the United States is projected to experience growth over the next decade. Market volume is expected to reach 107K tons, with a +0.7% CAGR, while market value is forecasted to reach $715M, with a +4.0% CAGR, by the end of 2035.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for sour cherry in the United States, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 107K tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $715M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

United States's Consumption of Sour Cherries

In 2024, the amount of sour cherries consumed in the United States expanded notably to 99K tons, picking up by 11% compared with 2023. Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded a pronounced shrinkage. Sour cherry consumption peaked at 142K tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The revenue of the sour cherry market in the United States stood at $464M in 2024, growing by 3.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a pronounced curtailment. Sour cherry consumption peaked at $844M in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Production

United States's Production of Sour Cherries

In 2024, production of sour cherries in the United States expanded sharply to 100K tons, increasing by 10% compared with the year before. Overall, production, however, saw a noticeable downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 with an increase of 41% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at 145K tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum. Sour cherry output in the United States indicated a noticeable reduction, which was largely conditioned by a noticeable slump of the harvested area and a mild shrinkage in yield figures.

In value terms, sour cherry production shrank slightly to $432M in 2024. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a pronounced decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when the production volume increased by 48% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $871M in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Yield

In 2024, the average yield of sour cherries in the United States totaled 7.3 tons per ha, surging by 8.9% on 2023 figures. In general, the yield, however, recorded a slight curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the yield increased by 39%. The sour cherry yield peaked at 9.6 tons per ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the harvested area of sour cherries in the United States totaled 14K ha, almost unchanged from the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, saw a mild curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the harvested area increased by 8.3%. The sour cherry harvested area peaked at 15K ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

United States's Imports of Sour Cherries

In 2024, the amount of sour cherries imported into the United States fell notably to 21 tons, with a decrease of -56.9% against the previous year's figure. In general, imports faced a dramatic decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 1,135% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at 1.7K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry imports declined remarkably to $82K in 2024. Overall, imports continue to indicate a precipitous curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 2,759%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $7.5M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Chile (21 tons) was the main sour cherry supplier to the United States, with a approx. 100% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Chile totaled -33.0%.

In value terms, Chile ($82K) constituted the largest supplier of sour cherries to the United States.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value from Chile amounted to -32.1%.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average sour cherry import price amounted to $4,000 per ton, reducing by -19.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, enjoyed a slight expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 230% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $5,044 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.

As there is only one major supplying country, the average price level is determined by prices for Chile.

From 2013 to 2024, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Canada amounted to +38.1% per year.

Exports

United States's Exports of Sour Cherries

Sour cherry exports from the United States shrank dramatically to 941 tons in 2024, which is down by -42.6% against 2023. In general, exports, however, showed a measured increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 348% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at 5.5K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, sour cherry exports fell notably to $3.2M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a noticeable reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 383% against the previous year. The exports peaked at $42M in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Mexico (774 tons) was the main destination for sour cherry exports from the United States, with a 82% share of total exports. Moreover, sour cherry exports to Mexico exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Trinidad and Tobago (47 tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Canada (44 tons), with a 4.7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Mexico amounted to +23.4%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Trinidad and Tobago (+61.4% per year) and Canada (-6.4% per year).

In value terms, Mexico ($2M) remains the key foreign market for sour cherries exports from the United States, comprising 62% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Trinidad and Tobago ($421K), with a 13% share of total exports. It was followed by Barbados, with a 6.7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value to Mexico amounted to +13.3%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Trinidad and Tobago (+56.7% per year) and Barbados (+71.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average sour cherry export price amounted to $3,361 per ton, dropping by -18.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a pronounced decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the average export price increased by 30%. The export price peaked at $7,642 per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major external markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Vietnam ($9,096 per ton), while the average price for exports to Mexico ($2,548 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Australia (+9.8%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.