Middle East's Sour Cherry Market to Reach 343K Tons and $568M by 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: Middle East - Sour Cherries - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the sour cherry market in the Middle East. It details that the market, driven by increasing demand, is forecast to grow to 343K tons in volume and $568M in value by 2035, albeit at a decelerating pace. In 2024, consumption and production were both around 325K tons, dominated by Turkey and Iran. The trade landscape shows significant import growth in Palestine and Jordan, while exports from the region have contracted. The analysis covers country-level breakdowns for consumption, production, imports, and exports, including price trends and per capita figures.

Key Findings

• Middle East sour cherry market is forecast to reach 343K tons and $568M by 2035
• Turkey and Iran dominate regional consumption and production, accounting for over 95%
• Saudi Arabia shows the fastest consumption growth rate among major markets
• Palestine and Jordan are the fastest-growing importers by volume
• Regional export volume and value have declined significantly from 2021 peaks

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for sour cherries in the Middle East, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 343K tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $568M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Middle East's Consumption of Sour Cherries

In 2024, consumption of sour cherries increased by 0.2% to 325K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the consumption volume increased by 9%. The volume of consumption peaked at 325K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The size of the sour cherry market in the Middle East expanded slightly to $428M in 2024, rising by 4.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Turkey (176K tons), Iran (134K tons) and Lebanon (6.4K tons), with a combined 97% share of total consumption. Saudi Arabia lagged somewhat behind, accounting for a further 1.8%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +24.1%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Turkey ($234M), Iran ($167M) and Saudi Arabia ($10M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 96% share of the total market.

Among the main consuming countries, Saudi Arabia, with a CAGR of +20.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of sour cherry per capita consumption in 2024 were Turkey (2 kg per person), Iran (1.5 kg per person) and Lebanon (1 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +21.7%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

Middle East's Production of Sour Cherries

In 2024, production of sour cherries decreased by -0.3% to 325K tons, falling for the third consecutive year after two years of growth. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the production volume increased by 8.1% against the previous year. The volume of production peaked at 331K tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a modest increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, sour cherry production rose remarkably to $438M in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 11%. The level of production peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Turkey (176K tons), Iran (135K tons) and Lebanon (6.8K tons), together accounting for 98% of total production.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Iran (with a CAGR of +3.6%), while production for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the production figures.

Yield

The average sour cherry yield was estimated at 6.8 tons per ha in 2024, leveling off at the year before. In general, the yield, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the yield increased by 3.6%. Over the period under review, the sour cherry yield hit record highs at 7.5 tons per ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the sour cherry harvested area in the Middle East shrank modestly to 48K ha, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2023 figures. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to sour cherry production attained the maximum at 48K ha in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

Middle East's Imports of Sour Cherries

In 2024, supplies from abroad of sour cherries increased by 13% to 2.4K tons for the first time since 2020, thus ending a three-year declining trend. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a slight decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 114%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 15K tons. From 2021 to 2024, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, sour cherry imports dropped remarkably to $5.3M in 2024. In general, imports, however, saw a slight downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 61%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at $18M in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

Palestine represented the largest importer of sour cherries in the Middle East, with the volume of imports amounting to 1K tons, which was near 43% of total imports in 2024. Jordan (502 tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 21% share, followed by Qatar (18%), Iraq (6.4%) and Oman (5.8%). The United Arab Emirates (72 tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into Palestine increased at an average annual rate of +19.5% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Jordan (+34.4%), the United Arab Emirates (+12.5%), Qatar (+7.1%) and Oman (+3.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Jordan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the Middle East, with a CAGR of +34.4% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Iraq (-1.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Palestine (+38 p.p.), Jordan (+21 p.p.), Qatar (+11 p.p.), Oman (+2.6 p.p.) and the United Arab Emirates (+2.4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Palestine ($2.1M), Qatar ($1.8M) and Oman ($415K) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, with a combined 83% share of total imports. Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 15%.

Jordan, with a CAGR of +30.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The import price in the Middle East stood at $2,238 per ton in 2024, falling by -41.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the import price increased by 89%. The level of import peaked at $3,821 per ton in 2023, and then shrank sharply in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Qatar ($4,233 per ton), while Jordan ($634 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Oman (+11.6%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Middle East's Exports of Sour Cherries

In 2024, shipments abroad of sour cherries decreased by -33.1% to 2.7K tons, falling for the third year in a row after three years of growth. In general, exports continue to indicate a mild setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 162% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked at 12K tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry exports contracted markedly to $4M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports showed a slight downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 137% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $16M in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Iran (933 tons) and Israel (906 tons) represented roughly 68% of total exports in 2024. Lebanon (427 tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 16% share, followed by the United Arab Emirates (11%). Turkey (120 tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Israel (with a CAGR of +54.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Israel ($1.4M), Iran ($934K) and Lebanon ($771K) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together comprising 78% of total exports.

Israel, with a CAGR of +35.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in the Middle East amounted to $1,491 per ton, with a decrease of -11.4% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when the export price increased by 23% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $1,721 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United Arab Emirates ($2,020 per ton), while Iran ($1,000 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates (+5.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.