Asia's Sour Cherry Market Value Set for Steady Growth with 3.9% CAGR Through 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: Asia - Sour Cherries - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the sour cherry market in Asia. After eleven years of growth, consumption slightly contracted to 479K tons in 2024, with a market value of $547M. Turkey, Iran, and Uzbekistan are the dominant producers and consumers, accounting for 85% of consumption. The market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of +1.2% in volume and +3.9% in value until 2035, reaching 544K tons and $830M. Import and export activities are also detailed, highlighting key trading nations like Saudi Arabia (largest importer) and Iran (largest exporter), along with their respective price trends.

Key Findings

• Market forecast to grow to 544K tons and $830M by 2035, with a value CAGR of +3.9%
• Turkey, Iran, and Uzbekistan lead consumption and production, comprising 85% of the market
• Uzbekistan recorded the highest growth rate in market value at a CAGR of +7.7%
• Saudi Arabia is the largest importer by volume, while Singapore has the highest import price
• Iran, Uzbekistan, and Lebanon are the top exporters, with the UAE achieving the highest export price

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for sour cherries in Asia, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 544K tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $830M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Asia's Consumption of Sour Cherries

After eleven years of growth, consumption of sour cherries decreased by -4.7% to 479K tons in 2024. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 502K tons, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

The value of the sour cherry market in Asia dropped to $547M in 2024, approximately mirroring the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the market value increased by 7.3% against the previous year. The level of consumption peaked at $554M in 2023, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Turkey (194K tons), Iran (132K tons) and Uzbekistan (81K tons), together accounting for 85% of total consumption. Azerbaijan lagged somewhat behind, comprising a further 10%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Azerbaijan (with a CAGR of +6.7%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Turkey ($185M), Iran ($180M) and Uzbekistan ($78M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 81% share of the total market.

Uzbekistan, with a CAGR of +7.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, the highest levels of sour cherry per capita consumption was registered in Azerbaijan (4.8 kg per person), followed by Uzbekistan (2.3 kg per person), Turkey (2.2 kg per person) and Iran (1.5 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of sour cherry was estimated at 0.1 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the sour cherry per capita consumption in Azerbaijan amounted to +5.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Uzbekistan (+5.0% per year) and Turkey (-0.5% per year).

Production

Asia's Production of Sour Cherries

In 2024, production of sour cherries decreased by -4.5% to 474K tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a six-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when the production volume increased by 10%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 497K tons, and then fell slightly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by tangible growth of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, sour cherry production dropped modestly to $526M in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 7.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $527M in 2023, and then dropped in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Turkey (194K tons), Iran (135K tons) and Uzbekistan (84K tons), with a combined 87% share of total production.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The average sour cherry yield fell slightly to 7.7 tons per ha in 2024, shrinking by -3.3% against 2023 figures. In general, the yield, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when the yield increased by 7.4% against the previous year. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 7.9 tons per ha, and then fell slightly in the following year.

Harvested Area

The sour cherry harvested area declined modestly to 62K ha in 2024, approximately equating the previous year's figure. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 11%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to sour cherry production reached the maximum at 63K ha in 2023, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Imports

Asia's Imports of Sour Cherries

In 2024, overseas purchases of sour cherries increased by 10% to 13K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Total imports indicated a remarkable increase from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +8.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +14.6% against 2022 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 108%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at 17K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, sour cherry imports totaled $32M in 2024. Total imports indicated a modest increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -37.6% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 75%. The level of import peaked at $51M in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

Saudi Arabia was the major importer of sour cherries in Asia, with the volume of imports resulting at 6.2K tons, which was approx. 48% of total imports in 2024. Azerbaijan (966 tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Palestine (945 tons), Singapore (771 tons) and Armenia (609 tons). All these countries together held near 25% share of total imports. Malaysia (503 tons), Kazakhstan (490 tons), Qatar (432 tons), Kuwait (329 tons) and South Korea (319 tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to sour cherry imports into Saudi Arabia stood at +25.0%. At the same time, Armenia (+116.4%), Azerbaijan (+58.5%), South Korea (+36.7%), Kazakhstan (+20.9%), Palestine (+19.7%), Malaysia (+14.0%) and Qatar (+7.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Armenia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Asia, with a CAGR of +116.4% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Singapore (-2.5%) and Kuwait (-8.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Saudi Arabia (+37 p.p.), Azerbaijan (+7.4 p.p.), Palestine (+4.7 p.p.), Armenia (+4.6 p.p.), Kazakhstan (+2.6 p.p.), South Korea (+2.2 p.p.) and Malaysia (+1.5 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2013-2024, the share of Singapore (-13.9 p.p.) and Kuwait (-14.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($8.8M), Singapore ($6.7M) and South Korea ($2.1M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, with a combined 55% share of total imports. Palestine, Qatar, Malaysia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kuwait and Kazakhstan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

Among the main importing countries, Armenia, with a CAGR of +69.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The import price in Asia stood at $2,439 per ton in 2024, waning by -8.5% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a deep slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the import price increased by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices reached the peak figure at $5,044 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Singapore ($8,701 per ton), while Kazakhstan ($532 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Palestine (+5.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Asia's Exports of Sour Cherries

In 2024, overseas shipments of sour cherries were finally on the rise to reach 8.7K tons after two years of decline. Overall, exports saw a prominent increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 236%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at 16K tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, sour cherry exports soared to $12M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports recorded a buoyant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 85% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at $17M in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2024, Iran (3.1K tons), Uzbekistan (2.3K tons) and Lebanon (1.8K tons) represented the largest exporter of sour cherries in Asia, achieving 83% of total export. It was distantly followed by Israel (740 tons), comprising an 8.5% share of total exports. The following exporters - Armenia (238 tons) and the United Arab Emirates (223 tons) - each amounted to a 5.3% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Armenia (with a CAGR of +134.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest sour cherry supplying countries in Asia were Iran ($3.9M), Uzbekistan ($3.1M) and Lebanon ($2.4M), with a combined 76% share of total exports. Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Armenia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 18%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Armenia, with a CAGR of +110.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The export price in Asia stood at $1,421 per ton in 2024, almost unchanged from the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the export price increased by 79% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $2,291 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United Arab Emirates ($2,145 per ton), while Iran ($1,258 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+11.5%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.