European Union's Polyethylene Market Set to Reach 13 Million Tons and $20.3 Billion by 2035

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This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the polyethylene in primary forms market in the European Union. It forecasts the market to grow at a CAGR of +1.8% in volume and +2.2% in value from 2024 to 2035, reaching 13 million tons and $20.3 billion, respectively. In 2024, consumption was 11M tons ($16B), with Italy, Spain, and France being the largest consumers. Production was 10M tons ($15.1B), led by Belgium, Italy, and Spain. The EU is both a major importer (11M tons, $16.2B) and exporter (10M tons, $15.5B) of polyethylene, with Germany, Italy, and Belgium being key players in trade. The Czech Republic showed the most dynamic growth in consumption, while average import and export prices have seen a mild decline from their 2022 peaks.

Key Findings

• EU polyethylene market is forecast to grow to 13M tons in volume and $20.3B in value by 2035
• Italy, Spain, and France are the top consuming countries, accounting for 51% of the market
• The Czech Republic recorded the most dynamic consumption growth with a CAGR of +30.9% from 2013-2024
• Belgium, Italy, and Spain are the leading producers, together comprising 45% of total output
• The EU maintains significant trade activity, importing 11M tons and exporting 10M tons in 2024

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for polyethylene in primary forms in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 13M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $20.3B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

European Union's Consumption of Polyethylene in Primary Forms

In 2024, consumption of polyethylene in primary forms in the European Union expanded markedly to 11M tons, picking up by 12% compared with 2023. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 13M tons. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the consumption remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The revenue of the polyethylene in primary forms market in the European Union rose sharply to $16B in 2024, surging by 14% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked at $20.8B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Italy (2.7M tons), Spain (1.5M tons) and France (1.4M tons), together comprising 51% of total consumption. Germany, Poland, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Austria, Portugal and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for the Czech Republic (with a CAGR of +30.9%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest polyethylene in primary forms markets in the European Union were Italy ($3.8B), Spain ($2.1B) and France ($2.1B), together accounting for 50% of the total market. Germany, Poland, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Austria, Portugal and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

Among the main consuming countries, the Czech Republic, with a CAGR of +29.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of polyethylene in primary forms per capita consumption in 2024 were Belgium (63 kg per person), Italy (46 kg per person) and Austria (35 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the Czech Republic (with a CAGR of +30.7%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

European Union's Production of Polyethylene in Primary Forms

Polyethylene in primary forms production expanded rapidly to 10M tons in 2024, picking up by 12% on the previous year. Overall, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The volume of production peaked at 11M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, polyethylene in primary forms production expanded markedly to $15.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 34%. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $18.6B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Belgium (1.7M tons), Italy (1.5M tons) and Spain (1.3M tons), together comprising 45% of total production.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +2.4%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

European Union's Imports of Polyethylene in Primary Forms

In 2024, overseas purchases of polyethylene in primary forms were finally on the rise to reach 11M tons after two years of decline. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 7.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at 12M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, polyethylene in primary forms imports totaled $16.2B in 2024. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 66% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $21.3B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the seven major importers of polyethylene in primary forms, namely Germany, Italy, Belgium, Poland, France, Spain and the Netherlands, represented more than two-thirds of total import. Greece (299K tons), Romania (278K tons) and the Czech Republic (277K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Romania (with a CAGR of +4.7%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest polyethylene in primary forms importing markets in the European Union were Germany ($2.8B), Italy ($2.2B) and Belgium ($1.8B), together comprising 42% of total imports. Poland, France, Spain, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Greece and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

Among the main importing countries, Romania, with a CAGR of +3.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The import price in the European Union stood at $1,455 per ton in 2024, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a mild shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the import price increased by 56%. Over the period under review, import prices attained the peak figure at $1,747 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the Czech Republic ($1,554 per ton) and Germany ($1,520 per ton), while Belgium ($1,335 per ton) and Italy ($1,357 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic (-1.2%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

European Union's Exports of Polyethylene in Primary Forms

In 2024, shipments abroad of polyethylene in primary forms increased by 5.6% to 10M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. In general, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 16%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at 12M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, polyethylene in primary forms exports rose markedly to $15.5B in 2024. Overall, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 54% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $19.8B. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2024, Belgium (2.4M tons), Germany (1.6M tons) and the Netherlands (1.4M tons) represented the largest exporter of polyethylene in primary forms in the European Union, comprising 54% of total export. France (824K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with an 8.1% share, followed by Spain (6%) and Sweden (5.3%). Austria (425K tons), Italy (423K tons), the Czech Republic (378K tons) and Hungary (311K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Belgium (with a CAGR of +3.0%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest polyethylene in primary forms supplying countries in the European Union were Belgium ($3.6B), Germany ($2.7B) and the Netherlands ($2.1B), with a combined 55% share of total exports.

Belgium, with a CAGR of +1.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in the European Union amounted to $1,527 per ton, approximately mirroring the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, saw a slight decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 51%. The level of export peaked at $1,807 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Sweden ($1,910 per ton) and Italy ($1,681 per ton), while Spain ($1,304 per ton) and Hungary ($1,381 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden (-0.1%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.