Global Petroleum Lubricating Oil and Grease Market to Reach 18M Tons in Volume and $60.2B in Value by 2035

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Driven by increasing demand worldwide, the petroleum lubricating oil and grease market is expected to continue growing over the next decade. Despite a forecasted deceleration in market performance, both volume and value are expected to increase steadily, reaching significant milestones by 2035.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for petroleum lubricating oil and grease worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 18M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $60.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease

Global petroleum lubricating oil and grease consumption amounted to 15M tons in 2024, approximately mirroring the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the consumption volume increased by 8.3%. Global consumption peaked at 15M tons in 2022; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

The revenue of the market for petroleum lubricating oil and grease worldwide reached $47.4B in 2024, surging by 3.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $47.5B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the global market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

Russia (5M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of petroleum lubricating oil and grease consumption, comprising approx. 33% of total volume. Moreover, petroleum lubricating oil and grease consumption in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (1.7M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (1.2M tons), with an 8.1% share.

In Russia, petroleum lubricating oil and grease consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: China (+1.9% per year) and the United States (-1.3% per year).

In value terms, the largest petroleum lubricating oil and grease markets worldwide were Russia ($8.4B), the United States ($7.1B) and China ($4.5B), with a combined 42% share of the global market. India, Brazil, Japan, Germany, Pakistan and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

Among the main consuming countries, India, with a CAGR of +6.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, the highest levels of petroleum lubricating oil and grease per capita consumption was registered in Russia (35 kg per person), followed by the United States (3.6 kg per person), Japan (2.8 kg per person) and Germany (2.7 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of petroleum lubricating oil and grease was estimated at 1.9 kg per person.

In Russia, petroleum lubricating oil and grease per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the United States (-1.9% per year) and Japan (+0.8% per year).

Production

World's Production of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease

In 2024, the amount of petroleum lubricating oil and grease produced worldwide amounted to 15M tons, flattening at the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 8.2%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 15M tons in 2022; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

In value terms, petroleum lubricating oil and grease production totaled $48.5B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the production volume increased by 16%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $48.5B; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of petroleum lubricating oil and grease production was Russia (5M tons), accounting for 33% of total volume. Moreover, petroleum lubricating oil and grease production in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (1.7M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (1.4M tons), with a 9% share.

In Russia, petroleum lubricating oil and grease production expanded at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: China (+2.5% per year) and the United States (-1.2% per year).

Imports

World's Imports of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease

In 2024, purchases abroad of petroleum lubricating oil and grease was finally on the rise to reach 1.2M tons after two years of decline. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 17%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 1.3M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, petroleum lubricating oil and grease imports rose slightly to $5.4B in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 23% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2024 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2024, China (122K tons) and Germany (84K tons) represented the key importers of petroleum lubricating oil and greasearound the world, together committing 18% of total imports. Mexico (54K tons) ranks next in terms of the total imports with a 4.7% share, followed by Canada (4.7%). India (50K tons), Italy (38K tons), France (37K tons), the Netherlands (32K tons), Belgium (31K tons) and Uzbekistan (29K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of +28.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($571M), Canada ($375M) and Germany ($375M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, with a combined 24% share of global imports. Mexico, France, Italy, India, Belgium, the Netherlands and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 20%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Uzbekistan, with a CAGR of +35.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average import price for petroleum lubricating oil and grease amounted to $4,705 per ton, shrinking by -3.1% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 an increase of 13% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $4,853 per ton, and then reduced in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($6,961 per ton), while Uzbekistan ($2,095 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+8.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Petroleum Lubricating Oil And Grease

In 2024, shipments abroad of petroleum lubricating oil and grease increased by 2% to 1.1M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 14%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 1.3M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, petroleum lubricating oil and grease exports declined slightly to $5.5B in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $5.5B in 2023, and then dropped in the following year.

Exports By Country

Germany (229K tons), the United States (155K tons) and France (125K tons) represented roughly 45% of total exports in 2024. Japan (81K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 7.1% share, followed by Belgium (6.7%), the Netherlands (5.7%) and China (5.6%). Italy (34K tons), Spain (34K tons) and the UK (28K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +18.3%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($1.3B), the United States ($921M) and France ($569M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together comprising 50% of global exports. Belgium, Japan, the Netherlands, the UK, China, Italy and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

Among the main exporting countries, China, with a CAGR of +17.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average export price for petroleum lubricating oil and grease stood at $4,774 per ton in 2024, dropping by -2.5% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when the average export price increased by 12%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $4,897 per ton, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($6,367 per ton), while China ($2,636 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+5.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.