Northern America's Paddy Rice Market Poised for Modest Growth With a 14% Volume CAGR Through 2035

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The Northern American paddy rice market experienced a significant contraction in 2024, with consumption falling to 6.7M tons and market value to $2.7B. The United States dominates, accounting for virtually all consumption and production. Despite the recent downturn, the market is forecast for a decade of modest growth, driven by rising demand, with volume projected to reach 7.8M tons (CAGR +1.4%) and value $3.7B (CAGR +3.0%) by 2035. The region is a net exporter, with U.S. exports surging 56% to 1.9M tons in 2024, while imports are minimal and concentrated in Canada.

Key Findings

• Market forecast to grow modestly to 7.8M tons (CAGR +1.4%) and $3.7B (CAGR +3.0%) by 2035
• United States constitutes ~99.9% of both regional consumption and production
• 2024 saw a sharp decline in consumption (-23%) and market value (-20.8%) from 2023 peaks
• Region is a major net exporter, with US exports surging 56% to 1.9M tons in 2024
• Import volume is negligible, led by Canada, with Bermuda paying the highest import price

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for paddy rice in Northern America, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7.8M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $3.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Northern America's Consumption of Paddy Rice

In 2024, the amount of paddy rice consumed in Northern America declined rapidly to 6.7M tons, waning by -23% on 2023 figures. In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs at 8.9M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The size of the paddy rice market in Northern America reduced markedly to $2.7B in 2024, waning by -20.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked at $3.4B in 2023, and then declined remarkably in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The United States (6.7M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of paddy rice consumption, comprising approx. 99.9% of total volume.

In the United States, paddy rice consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024.

In value terms, the United States ($2.7B) led the market, alone.

In the United States, the paddy rice market remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024.

In the United States, paddy rice per capita consumption plunged by an average annual rate of -1.2% over the period from 2013-2024.

Production

Northern America's Production of Paddy Rice

In 2024, production of paddy rice in Northern America declined to 8.6M tons, which is down by -13.3% compared with the previous year's figure. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when the production volume increased by 36% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at 10M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, paddy rice production contracted to $3.5B in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 42% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $4B, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The United States (8.6M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of paddy rice production, comprising approx. 99.9% of total volume.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in the United States was relatively modest.

Yield

In 2024, the average yield of paddy rice in Northern America contracted slightly to 8.4 tons per ha, remaining constant against the previous year's figure. In general, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the yield increased by 3.7% against the previous year. The level of yield peaked at 8.6 tons per ha in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the total area harvested in terms of paddy rice production in Northern America declined to 1M ha, waning by -12% compared with the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when the harvested area increased by 32% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to paddy rice production attained the maximum at 1.3M ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

Northern America's Imports of Paddy Rice

After two years of growth, supplies from abroad of paddy rice decreased by -7.9% to 916 tons in 2024. In general, imports, however, recorded tangible growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 181%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at 994 tons in 2023, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, paddy rice imports dropped remarkably to $408K in 2024. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when imports increased by 50% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $749K. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

Canada was the major importing country with an import of around 775 tons, which recorded 85% of total imports. The United States (94 tons) held a 10% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Bermuda (4.8%).

Canada was also the fastest-growing in terms of the paddy rice imports, with a CAGR of +3.6% from 2013 to 2024. The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Bermuda (-1.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Canada (+7.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2013-2024, the share of Bermuda (-3.1 p.p.) and the United States (-3.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Canada ($237K) constitutes the largest market for imported paddy rice in Northern America, comprising 58% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Bermuda ($102K), with a 25% share of total imports.

In Canada, paddy rice imports increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Bermuda (+0.9% per year) and the United States (-5.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the import price in Northern America amounted to $445 per ton, falling by -22.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a perceptible downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the import price increased by 134%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $3,132 per ton. From 2018 to 2024, the import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Bermuda ($2,325 per ton), while Canada ($305 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Bermuda (+2.7%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

Northern America's Exports of Paddy Rice

In 2024, exports of paddy rice in Northern America skyrocketed to 1.9M tons, growing by 56% compared with the previous year's figure. Total exports indicated pronounced growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +96.5% against 2022 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, paddy rice exports soared to $821M in 2024. Total exports indicated a measured increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +118.0% against 2022 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2024, the United States (1.9M tons) represented the main exporter of paddy rice in Northern America, committing 99.9% of total export.

The United States was also the fastest-growing in terms of the paddy rice exports, with a CAGR of +2.0% from 2013 to 2024. The shares of the largest exporters remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($821M) also remains the largest paddy rice supplier in Northern America.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States totaled +2.4%.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in Northern America amounted to $436 per ton, picking up by 4.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the export price increased by 16% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

As there is only one major export destination, the average price level is determined by prices for the United States.

From 2013 to 2024, the rate of growth in terms of prices for the United States amounted to +0.4% per year.