Asia-Pacific's Paddy Rice Market Poised for Steady Growth with +0.9% CAGR in Value

IndexBox has just published a new report: Asia-Pacific - Paddy Rice - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the Asia-Pacific paddy rice market for 2024 with a forecast to 2035. It details that consumption and production slightly declined in 2024 after a four-year rise, with China, India, and Bangladesh as the dominant players. The market volume is projected to reach 718M tons by 2035 with a minimal CAGR of +0.1%, while the market value is forecast to grow to $780.1B at a CAGR of +0.9%. Trade dynamics show Nepal as the leading importer and Cambodia as the largest exporter, with significant variations in import and export prices across countries.

Key Findings

• Asia-Pacific paddy rice market value is forecast to grow at a CAGR of +0.9%, reaching $780.1B by 2035
• China, India, and Bangladesh collectively account for 66% of regional consumption and production
• India recorded the strongest production growth with a CAGR of +2.3% from 2013-2024
• Cambodia is the region's leading exporter, supplying 62% of export volume in 2024
• Import prices surged 36% in 2024, with Pakistan paying the highest price at $3,828 per ton

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for paddy rice in Asia-Pacific, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 718M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $780.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Asia-Pacific's Consumption of Paddy Rice

In 2024, consumption of paddy rice decreased by -0.4% to 708M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a four-year rising trend. Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 2.3%. Over the period under review, consumption reached the peak volume at 711M tons in 2023, and then declined in the following year.

The revenue of the paddy rice market in Asia-Pacific amounted to $709.5B in 2024, with an increase of 2.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $711B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were China (208M tons), India (205M tons) and Bangladesh (58M tons), together accounting for 66% of total consumption.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +2.3%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($247.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Indonesia ($120.7B). It was followed by Bangladesh.

In China, the paddy rice market remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Indonesia (+4.0% per year) and Bangladesh (+2.8% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of paddy rice per capita consumption in 2024 were Myanmar (478 kg per person), Thailand (475 kg per person) and Vietnam (429 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +1.3%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

Asia-Pacific's Production of Paddy Rice

In 2024, after four years of growth, there was decline in production of paddy rice, when its volume decreased by -0.4% to 709M tons. In general, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 2.5% against the previous year. The volume of production peaked at 712M tons in 2023, and then contracted slightly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, paddy rice production expanded modestly to $720.2B in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 17% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $723.8B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were China (208M tons), India (205M tons) and Bangladesh (58M tons), with a combined 66% share of total production.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +2.3%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2024, the average paddy rice yield in Asia-Pacific fell modestly to 5 tons per ha, approximately mirroring 2023. In general, the yield, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 1.6% against the previous year. The level of yield peaked at 5 tons per ha in 2023, and then fell slightly in the following year.

Harvested Area

The paddy rice harvested area totaled 143M ha in 2024, almost unchanged from the year before. Overall, the harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the harvested area increased by 2.7%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to paddy rice production attained the peak figure at 143M ha in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

Asia-Pacific's Imports of Paddy Rice

In 2024, approx. 426K tons of paddy rice were imported in Asia-Pacific; with a decrease of -26.2% compared with the previous year. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate a temperate increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 110%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 773K tons. From 2021 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, paddy rice imports reached $273M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw a strong expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when imports increased by 91% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $357M. From 2021 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

Nepal dominates imports structure, finishing at 341K tons, which was near 80% of total imports in 2024. Vietnam (31K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 7.2% share, followed by the Philippines (6%). Pakistan (15K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to paddy rice imports into Nepal stood at +6.6%. At the same time, the Philippines (+23.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Philippines emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Asia-Pacific, with a CAGR of +23.6% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Vietnam (-3.1%) and Pakistan (-10.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Nepal (+23 p.p.) and the Philippines (+5.1 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2013-2024, the share of Vietnam (-7.5 p.p.) and Pakistan (-14 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, the Philippines ($97M), Nepal ($83M) and Pakistan ($57M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, together accounting for 87% of total imports.

The Philippines, with a CAGR of +24.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the import price in Asia-Pacific amounted to $640 per ton, jumping by 36% against the previous year. Import price indicated a notable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, paddy rice import price increased by +46.5% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the import price increased by 57%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $739 per ton. From 2017 to 2024, the import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Pakistan ($3,828 per ton), while Nepal ($242 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Pakistan (+16.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Asia-Pacific's Exports of Paddy Rice

In 2024, approx. 1.3M tons of paddy rice were exported in Asia-Pacific; surging by 12% on the previous year. Overall, exports posted a prominent expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 143%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 1.5M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, paddy rice exports amounted to $903M in 2024. In general, exports showed resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 135% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure in 2024 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Cambodia was the largest exporter of paddy rice in Asia-Pacific, with the volume of exports amounting to 827K tons, which was approx. 62% of total exports in 2024. India (354K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 27% share, followed by Pakistan (6.8%). China (36K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Cambodia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the paddy rice exports, with a CAGR of +76.4% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Pakistan (+11.9%), China (+6.7%) and India (+3.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Cambodia (+62 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Pakistan, China and India saw its share reduced by -1.6%, -2.9% and -50.4% from 2013 to 2024, respectively.

In value terms, Cambodia ($608M) remains the largest paddy rice supplier in Asia-Pacific, comprising 67% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($142M), with a 16% share of total exports. It was followed by India, with a 13% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in Cambodia totaled +76.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+8.8% per year) and India (+3.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The export price in Asia-Pacific stood at $681 per ton in 2024, falling by -5.9% against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 31% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the maximum at $723 per ton in 2023, and then declined in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($3,918 per ton), while Pakistan ($263 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Pakistan (+8.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.