World's NPK Fertilizer Market Forecast to Expand at a Sluggish +0.9% CAGR Through 2035

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This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global mixed nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium (NPK) fertilizers market from 2013 to 2024, with forecasts to 2035. In 2024, global consumption rebounded to 85M tons, valued at $48.9B, after a two-year decline. The United States is the dominant consumer and producer, accounting for 34% of volume. The market is forecast to grow slowly, reaching 93M tons (CAGR +0.9%) and $61.1B (CAGR +2.0%) by 2035. Key trade dynamics show Russia as the leading exporter, while India, Brazil, and China are major importers. Significant per capita consumption is noted in Finland and Saudi Arabia.

Key Findings

• Global NPK fertilizer market is forecast for slow growth, with volume reaching 93M tons by 2035 at a CAGR of +0.9% and value reaching $61.1B at a CAGR of +2.0%
• The United States is the world's largest consumer (28M tons, 34% share) and producer (28M tons, 35% share) of NPK fertilizers
• Saudi Arabia shows explosive growth in both consumption and production, with volume CAGRs exceeding +57% and +60% respectively from 2013-2024
• Russia is the top global exporter, supplying 5M tons or 39% of total exports, followed by Belgium and China
• India is the fastest-growing major importer by volume (CAGR +36.4%), while Kenya pays the highest average import price at $1,167 per ton

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 93M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $61.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, consumption of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers was finally on the rise to reach 85M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Overall, the total consumption indicated a resilient increase from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 85M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global NPK fertilizer market value reduced to $48.9B in 2024, approximately equating the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption saw a prominent increase. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $55.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The United States (28M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of NPK fertilizer consumption, accounting for 34% of total volume. Moreover, NPK fertilizer consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Saudi Arabia (9.5M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (5M tons), with a 5.9% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in the United States stood at +12.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Saudi Arabia (+57.8% per year) and India (+4.5% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($16B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Saudi Arabia ($7.1B). It was followed by Vietnam.

In the United States, the NPK fertilizer market increased at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Saudi Arabia (+56.3% per year) and Vietnam (+2.0% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of NPK fertilizer per capita consumption in 2024 were Finland (438 kg per person), Saudi Arabia (258 kg per person) and the United States (84 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +54.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, production of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers was finally on the rise to reach 81M tons after two years of decline. Overall, the total production indicated a strong expansion from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.5% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production decreased by -1.9% against 2021 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 35% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 83M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer production fell to $48.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production enjoyed a buoyant increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 42%. Global production peaked at $55.2B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The United States (28M tons) remains the largest NPK fertilizer producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 35% of total volume. Moreover, NPK fertilizer production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Saudi Arabia (9.6M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Russia (8.1M tons), with a 10% share.

In the United States, NPK fertilizer production increased at an average annual rate of +12.2% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Saudi Arabia (+60.8% per year) and Russia (+8.3% per year).

Imports

World's Imports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, purchases abroad of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers was finally on the rise to reach 17M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 23%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 19M tons. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer imports rose markedly to $9.2B in 2024. Overall, total imports indicated a modest increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -18.7% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 35%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at $11.3B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2024, India (1.6M tons), Brazil (1.4M tons), China (1.2M tons) and Thailand (1M tons) represented the largest importer of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers in the world, mixing up 31% of total import. Ukraine (663K tons), Spain (636K tons), Poland (620K tons), France (464K tons), Kenya (405K tons) and Colombia (315K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +36.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest NPK fertilizer importing markets worldwide were China ($692M), India ($658M) and Brazil ($551M), together comprising 21% of global imports.

India, with a CAGR of +31.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average NPK fertilizer import price stood at $558 per ton in 2024, shrinking by -3.8% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 55%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $737 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Kenya ($1,167 per ton), while Brazil ($395 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kenya (+8.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, the amount of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers exported worldwide expanded slightly to 13M tons, with an increase of 3% compared with 2023 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 23%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 17M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer exports amounted to $8.1B in 2024. Overall, total exports indicated moderate growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -15.5% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 31% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $9.6B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Russia was the largest exporter of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers in the world, with the volume of exports reaching 5M tons, which was near 39% of total exports in 2024. Belgium (1.3M tons) held a 10% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by China (5.4%). Morocco (496K tons), the Netherlands (412K tons), Spain (384K tons), Poland (365K tons), Germany (298K tons), Brazil (252K tons) and Serbia (250K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to NPK fertilizer exports from Russia stood at +5.0%. At the same time, China (+25.0%), Morocco (+18.8%), Serbia (+16.8%), Spain (+7.9%) and Germany (+7.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +25.0% from 2013-2024. Poland and Belgium experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-4.9%) and Brazil (-6.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Russia (+12 p.p.), China (+4.9 p.p.), Morocco (+3.1 p.p.) and Serbia (+1.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Brazil, Belgium and the Netherlands saw its share reduced by -2.6%, -3.2% and -3.4% from 2013 to 2024, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($2.9B) remains the largest NPK fertilizer supplier worldwide, comprising 36% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Belgium ($757M), with a 9.3% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 4.7% share.

In Russia, NPK fertilizer exports increased at an average annual rate of +10.0% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Belgium (+0.4% per year) and the Netherlands (-2.0% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average NPK fertilizer export price amounted to $624 per ton, almost unchanged from the previous year. In general, the export price, however, showed a noticeable expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 71%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $766 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($933 per ton), while China ($389 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.