European Union’s NPK Fertilizer Market Poised for Steady Growth With 3% CAGR in Value

IndexBox has just published a new report: EU - NPK Fertilizers - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The EU NPK fertilizer market is forecast to grow from 2024 to 2035, with volume reaching 12M tons (CAGR +1.8%) and value reaching $7.7B (CAGR +3.0%). After a recent decline, 2024 saw consumption rise to 10M tons, valued at $5.6B. Spain is the largest consumer and producer. Imports rebounded in 2024, while exports also increased after a period of decline. Significant price fluctuations were observed in recent years, with Finland having notably high export prices.

Key Findings

• Market forecast to grow to 12M tons and $7.7B by 2035, with CAGRs of +1.8% and +3.0% respectively
• Spain is the leading consumer (24% share) and a top producer alongside Belgium and Finland
• Finland and Ireland show the highest per capita consumption, exceeding 200 kg per person
• Import and export prices fell in 2024 after a significant peak in 2022
• Finland commands the highest export price at $2,627 per ton, far above the EU average

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 12M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $7.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

European Union's Consumption of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, after two years of decline, there was growth in consumption of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers, when its volume increased by 2.7% to 10M tons. Over the period under review, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 14M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the consumption failed to regain momentum.

The size of the NPK fertilizer market in the European Union declined to $5.6B in 2024, dropping by -1.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The total consumption indicated a temperate expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption decreased by -29.7% against 2022 indices. The level of consumption peaked at $7.9B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

Spain (2.4M tons) remains the largest NPK fertilizer consuming country in the European Union, accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, NPK fertilizer consumption in Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Finland (1.2M tons), twofold. Poland (1.1M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with an 11% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in Spain stood at +3.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Finland (+3.3% per year) and Poland (-0.7% per year).

In value terms, Spain ($1.5B), Ireland ($863M) and Poland ($548M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 53% share of the total market. France, Finland, Romania, Greece, Hungary, Portugal and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

Among the main consuming countries, Finland, with a CAGR of +10.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of NPK fertilizer per capita consumption in 2024 were Finland (209 kg per person), Ireland (208 kg per person) and Spain (50 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Portugal (with a CAGR of +7.8%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

European Union's Production of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, production of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers decreased by -3.4% to 9.2M tons, falling for the third year in a row after two years of growth. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 12M tons. From 2022 to 2024, production growth failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer production reduced to $6B in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, posted tangible growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 83%. The level of production peaked at $8.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Spain (2.1M tons), Belgium (1.4M tons) and Finland (1.3M tons), with a combined 52% share of total production.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +5.2%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

European Union's Imports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, overseas purchases of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers increased by 30% to 5.1M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Overall, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The volume of import peaked at 6.6M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer imports soared to $2.7B in 2024. Total imports indicated mild growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -23.4% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 45% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $3.5B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Spain (636K tons), Poland (620K tons) and France (464K tons) was the main importer of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers in the European Union, mixing up 34% of total import. Germany (280K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Sweden (279K tons), Romania (276K tons), Ireland (233K tons) and Denmark (231K tons). All these countries together held approx. 25% share of total imports. The following importers - Lithuania (215K tons) and Hungary (210K tons) - each finished at an 8.3% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Romania (with a CAGR of +8.9%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest NPK fertilizer importing markets in the European Union were Poland ($319M), Spain ($306M) and France ($234M), with a combined 32% share of total imports. Germany, Romania, Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark, Hungary and Ireland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

Romania, with a CAGR of +9.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The import price in the European Union stood at $519 per ton in 2024, falling by -10.5% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the import price increased by 66% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $752 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Lithuania ($552 per ton) and Hungary ($537 per ton), while Ireland ($418 per ton) and Sweden ($424 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lithuania (+2.5%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

European Union's Exports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, overseas shipments of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers were finally on the rise to reach 4.3M tons for the first time since 2020, thus ending a three-year declining trend. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a mild slump. The volume of export peaked at 5.4M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer exports rose modestly to $3.2B in 2024. Total exports indicated a slight increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -17.6% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when exports increased by 48%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $3.9B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Belgium was the key exporter of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers in the European Union, with the volume of exports recording 1.3M tons, which was near 31% of total exports in 2024. The Netherlands (412K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 9.5% share, followed by Spain (8.9%), Poland (8.4%), Germany (6.9%) and Italy (5.4%). The following exporters - Finland (180K tons), Portugal (174K tons), Austria (166K tons) and Greece (165K tons) - each recorded a 16% share of total exports.

Belgium experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers. At the same time, Spain (+7.9%), Germany (+7.8%) and Greece (+5.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the European Union, with a CAGR of +7.9% from 2013-2024. Poland and Italy experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Portugal (-2.4%), Austria (-4.1%), the Netherlands (-4.9%) and Finland (-8.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Spain (+5.5 p.p.), Germany (+4.2 p.p.) and Greece (+2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2013-2024, the share of the Netherlands (-4.9 p.p.) and Finland (-5.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest NPK fertilizer supplying countries in the European Union were Belgium ($757M), Finland ($473M) and the Netherlands ($385M), with a combined 51% share of total exports. Spain, Poland, Germany, Italy, Greece, Austria and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Spain, with a CAGR of +7.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The export price in the European Union stood at $735 per ton in 2024, declining by -11.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, continues to indicate tangible growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the export price increased by 88% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $1,002 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Finland ($2,627 per ton), while Portugal ($480 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Finland (+11.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.