European Union's NPK Fertilizers Market to Reach 12M tons and $6B by 2035 on Increasing Demand

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Driven by increasing demand, the European Union's market for mixed NPK fertilizers is projected to grow at a CAGR of +0.9% in volume and +2.1% in value from 2025 to 2035. This growth is expected to bring the market volume to 12M tons and the market value to $6B by the end of 2035.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2025 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 12M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2025 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

European Union's Consumption of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, consumption of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers increased by 12% to 11M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 14M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the consumption failed to regain momentum.

The size of the NPK fertilizer market in the European Union soared to $4.7B in 2024, jumping by 19% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level at $5.5B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Finland (2.4M tons), Spain (2.4M tons) and Poland (1.2M tons), with a combined 55% share of total consumption.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Finland (with a CAGR of +10.5%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Spain ($937M), Poland ($796M) and Ireland ($628M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 50% share of the total market. Finland, France, Romania, Portugal, Hungary, Germany and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

Finland, with a CAGR of +10.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, the highest levels of NPK fertilizer per capita consumption was registered in Finland (440 kg per person), followed by Ireland (197 kg per person), Spain (50 kg per person) and Greece (39 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of NPK fertilizer was estimated at 24 kg per person.

In Finland, NPK fertilizer per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +10.3% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Ireland (-1.6% per year) and Spain (+3.1% per year).

Production

European Union's Production of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, production of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers increased by 7.9% to 10M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 12M tons. From 2022 to 2024, production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer production surged to $5.4B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total production indicated a mild increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production decreased by -14.8% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the production volume increased by 39%. The level of production peaked at $6.3B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Finland (2.5M tons), Spain (2.1M tons) and Belgium (1.1M tons), together comprising 56% of total production.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Finland (with a CAGR of +6.5%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

European Union's Imports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, after two years of decline, there was significant growth in purchases abroad of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers, when their volume increased by 13% to 4.4M tons. In general, imports, however, saw a slight descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 16%. The volume of import peaked at 6.6M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer imports fell to $2.3B in 2024. Overall, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 45% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $3.5B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Spain (635K tons) and Poland (583K tons) were the major importers of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers in the European Union, together recording near 27% of total imports. France (339K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Romania (245K tons), Lithuania (215K tons), Germany (207K tons), Ireland (204K tons) and Greece (200K tons). All these countries together took approx. 32% share of total imports. The following importers - Denmark (194K tons) and Portugal (189K tons) - each accounted for an 8.6% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Romania (with a CAGR of +7.8%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Spain ($306M), Poland ($290M) and France ($166M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, together accounting for 34% of total imports. Lithuania, Romania, Greece, Germany, Portugal, Ireland and Denmark lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Romania, with a CAGR of +8.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The import price in the European Union stood at $507 per ton in 2024, with a decrease of -12.6% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when the import price increased by 66%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $752 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Greece ($571 per ton) and Lithuania ($553 per ton), while Ireland ($445 per ton) and Denmark ($462 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lithuania (+2.5%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

European Union's Exports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, shipments abroad of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers was finally on the rise to reach 3.8M tons after three years of decline. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a noticeable decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 8.1% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 5.3M tons. From 2021 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer exports declined to $2.8B in 2024. Overall, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 48% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $3.9B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Belgium represented the key exporting country with an export of about 1.2M tons, which resulted at 31% of total exports. Spain (383K tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by the Netherlands (334K tons), Poland (319K tons), Germany (236K tons) and Italy (200K tons). All these countries together took near 39% share of total exports. The following exporters - Greece (165K tons), Lithuania (154K tons), Portugal (152K tons) and Finland (131K tons) - together made up 16% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to NPK fertilizer exports from Belgium stood at -2.0%. At the same time, Spain (+7.8%), Greece (+5.7%) and Germany (+5.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the European Union, with a CAGR of +7.8% from 2013-2024. Lithuania experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Poland (-1.3%), Italy (-1.5%), Portugal (-3.5%), the Netherlands (-6.8%) and Finland (-10.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Spain (+6.8 p.p.), Germany (+3.6 p.p.), Greece (+2.6 p.p.) and Belgium (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while the Netherlands and Finland saw its share reduced by -5.6% and -5.9% from 2013 to 2024, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Belgium ($673M), Finland ($430M) and the Netherlands ($319M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together comprising 50% of total exports. Spain, Poland, Germany, Italy, Greece, Lithuania and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Spain, with a CAGR of +7.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in the European Union amounted to $746 per ton, declining by -11% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, recorded notable growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the export price increased by 81% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $963 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Finland ($3,281 per ton), while Portugal ($497 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Finland (+14.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.