The U.S. to Boost Imports of Lemons and Limes due to Decline in Domestic Production

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'U.S. - Lemons And Limes - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

American imports of lemons and limes will rise this year as domestic production declines due to poor weather conditions in California. Average prices for imported lemons and limes are declining, while the prices of products produced locally are rising significantly. Mexico, Chile and Argentina will remain the largest suppliers of lemons and limes to the U.S. market.

Key Trends and Insights

Prices for lemons and limes grown in the U.S. are expected to continue to rise due to lower domestic production. According to the USDA reports, the reduced supply in the domestic market led to the fact that the average prices of local producers for fresh lemons increased by 8.4% from $25.57 per box in January 2020 to $27.71 per box in January 2021.

It is predicted that the domestic production of lemons by the end of 2021 will be 5-6% lower than in the previous year. The decline is due to lower yields in California due to adverse weather conditions and strong winds in coastal areas.

The decline in domestic production will be offset by a rise in imports, which by the end of 2021 will exceed the previous year's amount of 890 tonnes. The U.S. continues to rank first in global imports of lemons and limes. Mexico remains the country's primary trading partner, supplying 87% of all imported lemons and limes to the U.S. market.

In contrast to the rising prices for local products, the average price for imported lemons decreased from $872 per tonne in 2020 to $773 per tonne in 2021 (IndexBox estimates), which is stimulating the import of foreign products into the country. High crop yields as a result of favorable weather conditions allowed Mexican suppliers to lower product prices and increase their presence in the American market.

Lemon and Lime Market Size and Imports into the U.S.

After eight years of growth, the U.S. lemon and lime market decreased by -4.9% to $1.2B in 2020. In general, the total consumption indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2020: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last eight-year period.

In 2020, approx. 853K tonnes of lemons and limes were imported into the U.S.; surging by 7.5% against the previous year. Overall, total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2020: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.5% over the last eight-year period. In value terms, lemon and lime imports shrank modestly to $659M (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, Mexico (744K tonnes) constituted the largest supplier of lemon and lime to the U.S., accounting for an 87% share of total imports. Moreover, lemon and lime imports from Mexico exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Chile (54K tonnes), more than tenfold.

In value terms, Mexico ($513M) constituted the largest supplier of lemon and lime to the U.S., comprising 78% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Chile ($75M), with an 11% share of total imports.

The average lemon and lime import price stood at $773 per tonne in 2020, falling by -11.4% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2020: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last eight years

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Argentina ($1,415 per tonne), while the price for Mexico ($690 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform