Worldwide Coffee (Green) Market: 13M tons Consumption Expected by 2035, Reaching $52.2B in Value

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The global coffee (green) market is poised for growth in the coming years, with consumption trends on the rise. By 2035, the market volume is projected to reach 13 million tons, and the market value is expected to amount to $52.2 billion in nominal prices. This anticipated growth is driven by the continuously increasing demand for coffee across the globe.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for coffee (green) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 13M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $52.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Green Coffee

Global green coffee consumption reached 12M tons in 2024, almost unchanged from the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 12M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global green coffee market size expanded markedly to $43.1B in 2024, increasing by 7.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated tangible growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +53.0% against 2019 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were the United States (1.2M tons), Vietnam (1M tons) and Germany (1M tons), together comprising 28% of global consumption. Indonesia, Italy, Brazil, Japan, Central African Republic, Colombia and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Central African Republic (with a CAGR of +39.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($5.5B), Germany ($4.2B) and Italy ($2.5B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 28% share of the global market. Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, Japan, Spain, Central African Republic and Colombia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 25%.

Among the main consuming countries, Central African Republic, with a CAGR of +40.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, the highest levels of green coffee per capita consumption was registered in Central African Republic (60 kg per person), followed by Germany (12 kg per person), Italy (11 kg per person) and Vietnam (10 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of green coffee was estimated at 1.4 kg per person.

In Central African Republic, green coffee per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +37.7% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+1.0% per year) and Italy (+2.7% per year).

Production

World's Production of Green Coffee

In 2024, the amount of coffee (green) produced worldwide was estimated at 11M tons, flattening at 2023 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 12%. Global production peaked at 12M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by slight growth of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, green coffee production amounted to $40B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a noticeable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production increased by +49.1% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when the production volume increased by 23%. Global production peaked in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Brazil (3.3M tons), Vietnam (2.2M tons) and Indonesia (768K tons), with a combined 56% share of global production. Colombia, Ethiopia, Uganda, Peru, Honduras, India and Central African Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Central African Republic (with a CAGR of +39.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2024, the global average yield of coffee (green) expanded to 925 kg per ha, picking up by 1.6% compared with the previous year's figure. In general, the yield, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the yield increased by 5.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average green coffee yield reached the peak level at 974 kg per ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

The global green coffee harvested area fell modestly to 12M ha in 2024, therefore, remained relatively stable against the year before. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the harvested area increased by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to green coffee production attained the peak figure at 12M ha in 2023, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

Imports

World's Imports of Green Coffee

In 2024, the amount of coffee (green) imported worldwide expanded sharply to 7.6M tons, with an increase of 5.1% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when imports increased by 5.7% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 7.9M tons. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, green coffee imports soared to $34B in 2024. Overall, total imports indicated a remarkable increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +85.6% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when imports increased by 48%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2024 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The United States (1.3M tons) and Germany (1.1M tons) represented roughly 32% of total imports in 2024. Italy (645K tons) held an 8.5% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Japan (4.7%). The following importers - Spain (315K tons), Belgium (277K tons), Canada (215K tons), the Netherlands (206K tons), France (206K tons) and Switzerland (205K tons) - together made up 19% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +8.8%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest green coffee importing markets worldwide were the United States ($6.2B), Germany ($5.3B) and Italy ($2.8B), with a combined 42% share of global imports. Japan, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland, Canada, the Netherlands and France lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +12.8%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average green coffee import price amounted to $4,486 per ton, surging by 13% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated perceptible growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, green coffee import price increased by +80.1% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when the average import price increased by 40% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Switzerland ($5,661 per ton) and the United States ($4,876 per ton), while Spain ($4,018 per ton) and Italy ($4,413 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+5.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Green Coffee

In 2024, the amount of coffee (green) exported worldwide expanded significantly to 7.3M tons, picking up by 6% against 2023. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 7.6M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, green coffee exports expanded markedly to $29.3B in 2024. In general, total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -1.1% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 37%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $29.7B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2024, Brazil (2.8M tons) represented the major exporter of coffee (green), generating 38% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Vietnam (1,194K tons), Colombia (501K tons) and Uganda (369K tons), together committing a 28% share of total exports. Honduras (312K tons), India (254K tons), Ethiopia (254K tons), Peru (211K tons), Guatemala (190K tons) and Belgium (134K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to green coffee exports from Brazil stood at +4.5%. At the same time, Belgium (+23.8%), Uganda (+7.2%), Ethiopia (+6.4%), Honduras (+2.5%) and India (+1.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +23.8% from 2013-2024. Vietnam and Colombia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Peru (-1.1%) and Guatemala (-1.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Brazil (+13 p.p.), Uganda (+2.5 p.p.), Belgium (+1.6 p.p.) and Ethiopia (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2013-2024, the share of Vietnam (-2.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Brazil ($11.3B) remains the largest green coffee supplier worldwide, comprising 39% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Vietnam ($2.9B), with a 9.9% share of global exports. It was followed by Colombia, with a 9% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Brazil stood at +8.6%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Vietnam (+1.3% per year) and Colombia (+3.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average green coffee export price amounted to $4,038 per ton, increasing by 7.7% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a temperate increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, green coffee export price increased by +77.0% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 36% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Ethiopia ($5,370 per ton), while Vietnam ($2,429 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+5.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.