China's Frozen Fish Meat Market Set to Reach 160K Tons and $390M by 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: China - Frozen Fish Meat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of China's frozen fish meat market for 2024, with forecasts to 2035. Consumption rose to 108K tons, while production slightly declined to 96K tons, leading to significant imports of 73K tons primarily from Russia and Vietnam. The market value was $264M in 2024. Exports fell to 61K tons, destined mainly for the Philippines and Japan. The market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of +3.6%, reaching 160K tons and $390M by 2035. The report details trade flows, price trends, and the competitive landscape of major trading partners.

Key Findings

• China's frozen fish meat market is forecast to grow to 160K tons and $390M by 2035
• Domestic production of 96K tons in 2024 was insufficient to meet 108K tons of consumption, driving imports
• Russia and Vietnam are the dominant import sources, together supplying over 50% of China's frozen fish meat imports
• The Philippines, Japan, and the UK are the top export destinations, absorbing 68% of China's frozen fish meat exports
• Significant price disparities exist in trade, with import prices averaging $2,414/ton and export prices at $4,287/ton

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for frozen fish meat in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 160K tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $390M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

China's Consumption of Frozen Fish Meat

In 2024, consumption of frozen fish meat increased by 8.9% to 108K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Overall, consumption enjoyed a prominent expansion. Over the period under review, consumption attained the peak volume in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

The revenue of the frozen fish meat market in China shrank to $264M in 2024, dropping by -1.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption enjoyed a resilient increase. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $268M, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Production

China's Production of Frozen Fish Meat

In 2024, after five years of growth, there was decline in production of frozen fish meat, when its volume decreased by -2.9% to 96K tons. In general, the total production indicated a prominent expansion from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production increased by +31.0% against 2018 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 95%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 119K tons. From 2017 to 2024, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, frozen fish meat production declined to $418M in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated strong growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 52% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $479M in 2023, and then declined in the following year.

Imports

China's Imports of Frozen Fish Meat

In 2024, overseas purchases of frozen fish meat increased by 12% to 73K tons, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. In general, imports enjoyed a buoyant increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 55%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure in 2024 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, frozen fish meat imports shrank to $175M in 2024. Overall, imports continue to indicate a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 28%. Imports peaked at $182M in 2023, and then reduced in the following year.

Imports By Country

Russia (26K tons), Vietnam (24K tons) and the United States (6K tons) were the main suppliers of frozen fish meat imports to China, together accounting for 77% of total imports. India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Myanmar and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Pakistan (with a CAGR of +41.1%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Vietnam ($51M), Russia ($50M) and the United States ($14M) constituted the largest frozen fish meat suppliers to China, with a combined 66% share of total imports. South Korea, India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Myanmar lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 22%.

Pakistan, with a CAGR of +45.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average frozen fish meat import price stood at $2,414 per ton in 2024, declining by -14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 an increase of 29%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $3,283 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($10,492 per ton), while the price for Russia ($1,970 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+11.9%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

China's Exports of Frozen Fish Meat

In 2024, shipments abroad of frozen fish meat decreased by -6.4% to 61K tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, total exports indicated noticeable growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -26.0% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 79% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 108K tons. From 2017 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, frozen fish meat exports dropped rapidly to $260M in 2024. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a modest expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -40.0% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when exports increased by 34%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $434M. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

The Philippines (20K tons), Japan (11K tons) and the UK (11K tons) were the main destinations of frozen fish meat exports from China, with a combined 68% share of total exports. South Korea, Germany, France, Taiwan (Chinese), Indonesia and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +38.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for frozen fish meat exported from China were the Philippines ($104M), Japan ($57M) and the UK ($42M), together comprising 78% of total exports. South Korea, Germany, Taiwan (Chinese), France, the United States and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 15%.

Indonesia, with a CAGR of +54.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average frozen fish meat export price amounted to $4,287 per ton, shrinking by -14.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a mild contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 53%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $5,813 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Taiwan (Chinese) ($6,060 per ton), while the average price for exports to South Korea ($1,670 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Indonesia (+11.4%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.