Asia's Cobalt Ore Market to See Modest Growth With a +0.9% CAGR Through 2035

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This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the cobalt ore market in Asia for 2024, with a forecast to 2035. It details that market consumption decreased slightly to 938K tons in 2024 but is projected to grow at a CAGR of +0.9% to reach 1M tons and $7.3B by 2035. The Philippines is the dominant consumer and producer, accounting for 52% of volume. Regional imports and exports have seen sharp declines, with significant price variations between importing and exporting countries. The market value has shown consistent, modest growth over the analyzed period.

Key Findings

• Asia's cobalt ore market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of +0.9% through 2035, reaching 1M tons and $7.3B in value
• The Philippines is the market leader, constituting 52% of both consumption and production volume in 2024
• Regional imports and exports plummeted dramatically in 2024, falling by -84.5% and -23.8% respectively
• A significant disparity exists between import ($7,299/ton) and export ($4,008/ton) average prices in the region
• Taiwan (Chinese) is the largest importer by value, while South Korea leads in export value despite low volumes

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cobalt ores in Asia, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $7.3B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Asia's Consumption of Cobalt Ore

In 2024, consumption of cobalt ores decreased by -0.7% to 938K tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 1.1M tons. From 2015 to 2024, the growth of the consumption remained at a lower figure.

The size of the cobalt ore market in Asia shrank slightly to $6.6B in 2024, remaining constant against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $7.3B. From 2015 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of cobalt ore consumption was the Philippines (488K tons), comprising approx. 52% of total volume. Moreover, cobalt ore consumption in the Philippines exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Indonesia (213K tons), twofold. China (209K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 22% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in the Philippines totaled +5.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+2.1% per year) and China (-6.5% per year).

In value terms, the Philippines ($3.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Indonesia ($1.3B). It was followed by China.

In the Philippines, the cobalt ore market increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+2.2% per year) and China (-6.4% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of cobalt ore per capita consumption in 2024 were the Philippines (4.2 kg per person), Oman (2.7 kg per person) and Indonesia (0.7 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Oman (with a CAGR of +5.3%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

Asia's Production of Cobalt Ore

In 2024, the amount of cobalt ores produced in Asia reached 936K tons, approximately mirroring 2023. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the peak volume at 945K tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, cobalt ore production reached $6.7B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 26% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $6.7B in 2022; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

Production By Country

The Philippines (488K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of cobalt ore production, accounting for 52% of total volume. Moreover, cobalt ore production in the Philippines exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Indonesia (213K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by China (208K tons), with a 22% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in the Philippines totaled +5.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+2.1% per year) and China (-2.0% per year).

Imports

Asia's Imports of Cobalt Ore

In 2024, approx. 3.1K tons of cobalt ores were imported in Asia; with a decrease of -84.5% against the previous year. Overall, imports recorded a sharp slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 37% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked at 228K tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cobalt ore imports shrank rapidly to $22M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate a precipitous slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 69% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $676M in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

Taiwan (Chinese) was the major importing country with an import of around 1.7K tons, which resulted at 55% of total imports. China (883 tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by the United Arab Emirates (195 tons). All these countries together held near 35% share of total imports. Vietnam (110 tons), Hong Kong SAR (78 tons) and Singapore (46 tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Singapore (with a CAGR of +183.3%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Taiwan (Chinese) ($18M) constitutes the largest market for imported cobalt ores in Asia, comprising 80% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United Arab Emirates ($1.8M), with an 8% share of total imports. It was followed by China, with a 6.7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in Taiwan (Chinese) stood at +6.9%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the United Arab Emirates (+2.6% per year) and China (-38.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the import price in Asia amounted to $7,299 per ton, surging by 129% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate resilient growth. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Taiwan (Chinese) ($10,629 per ton), while China ($1,703 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hong Kong SAR (+3.3%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

Asia's Exports of Cobalt Ore

After two years of growth, shipments abroad of cobalt ores decreased by -23.8% to 314 tons in 2024. Over the period under review, exports recorded a precipitous setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 3,388%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 28K tons. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cobalt ore exports shrank markedly to $1.3M in 2024. Overall, exports showed a abrupt shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 83%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at $9.4M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Hong Kong SAR represented the key exporter of cobalt ores in Asia, with the volume of exports recording 197 tons, which was approx. 63% of total exports in 2024. South Korea (93 tons) took a 30% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Malaysia (5.5%).

Exports from Hong Kong SAR decreased at an average annual rate of -8.5% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, South Korea (+24.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, South Korea emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Asia, with a CAGR of +24.2% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Malaysia (-44.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Hong Kong SAR (+56 p.p.), South Korea (+30 p.p.) and Malaysia (+5.5 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Korea ($649K), Hong Kong SAR ($515K) and Malaysia ($48K) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together accounting for 96% of total exports.

Among the main exporting countries, South Korea, with a CAGR of +12.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced a decline in the exports figures.

Export Prices By Country

The export price in Asia stood at $4,008 per ton in 2024, declining by -34.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, saw a resilient increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 an increase of 7,351% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the maximum at $6,124 per ton in 2023, and then shrank remarkably in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($6,948 per ton), while Hong Kong SAR ($2,617 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia (-2.4%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.