United States' Carbides Market Set for Modest Growth to $4.1 Billion and 923K Tons by 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: U.S. - Carbides - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The US carbides market is forecast to grow slightly, reaching 923K tons in volume and $4.1B in value by 2035. After a period of stagnation, 2024 saw a minor consumption increase to 864K tons, valued at $3.6B. Domestic production declined to 759K tons, while imports fell to 121K tons, primarily sourced from China. Exports dropped sharply to 16K tons. Significant price disparities exist among trade partners, with Norway having the highest import price and Japan the highest export price.

Key Findings

• Market forecast to reach 923K tons and $4.1B by 2035, indicating modest growth
• China dominates US imports, supplying 84% of volume and 42% of import value
• US is a net importer, with 2024 exports (16K tons) far below imports (121K tons)
• Major price gaps exist, with Norwegian imports at ~$24.8K/ton versus Dutch at ~$697/ton
• Export prices surged 23% in 2024, with Japan as the highest-value destination at ~$20.5K/ton

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for carbides in the United States, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 923K tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $4.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

United States's Consumption of Carbides

In 2024, after four years of decline, there was growth in consumption of carbides, when its volume increased by less than 0.1% to 864K tons. Overall, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Carbides consumption peaked at 892K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The value of the carbides market in the United States expanded remarkably to $3.6B in 2024, surging by 13% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $3.8B. From 2019 to 2024, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Production

United States's Production of Carbides

In 2024, the amount of carbides produced in the United States shrank to 759K tons, remaining constant against the previous year. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 when the production volume increased by 6.1%. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum volume at 804K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, carbides production skyrocketed to $3.3B in 2024. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 24%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $3.4B. From 2019 to 2024, production growth remained at a lower figure.

Imports

United States's Imports of Carbides

In 2024, overseas purchases of carbides decreased by less than 0.1% to 121K tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 37%. Imports peaked at 174K tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, carbides imports reduced modestly to $348M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, enjoyed measured growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 66% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $480M. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, China (102K tons) constituted the largest supplier of carbides to the United States, accounting for a 84% share of total imports. Moreover, carbides imports from China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Brazil (6.1K tons), more than tenfold. South Africa (4.3K tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 3.6% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume from China totaled +2.5%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Brazil (-2.5% per year) and South Africa (-8.9% per year).

In value terms, China ($146M) constituted the largest supplier of carbides to the United States, comprising 42% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Norway ($66M), with a 19% share of total imports. It was followed by South Africa, with an 11% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from China totaled +3.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Norway (+16.9% per year) and South Africa (+0.6% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average carbides import price amounted to $2,875 per ton, which is down by -3.4% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a perceptible expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, carbides import price increased by +39.9% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 40%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $2,977 per ton in 2023, and then fell modestly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Norway ($24,839 per ton), while the price for the Netherlands ($697 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Norway (+13.1%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

United States's Exports of Carbides

In 2024, shipments abroad of carbides decreased by -22.3% to 16K tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, exports saw a deep setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 22%. The exports peaked at 47K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, carbides exports contracted modestly to $77M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports saw a drastic downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 22% against the previous year. The exports peaked at $163M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Canada (9.8K tons) was the main destination for carbides exports from the United States, accounting for a 61% share of total exports. Moreover, carbides exports to Canada exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Mexico (2.2K tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Norway (1.2K tons), with a 7.5% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume to Canada totaled -7.5%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Mexico (-0.7% per year) and Norway (-19.4% per year).

In value terms, the largest markets for carbides exported from the United States were Canada ($22M), Germany ($13M) and Japan ($10M), together comprising 59% of total exports.

In terms of the main countries of destination, Japan, with a CAGR of +3.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced mixed trend patterns.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average carbides export price amounted to $4,772 per ton, jumping by 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated tangible growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, carbides export price increased by +52.4% against 2021 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average export price increased by 33% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $5,114 per ton. From 2019 to 2024, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major external markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($20,457 per ton), while the average price for exports to Norway ($1,421 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Japan (+4.5%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.